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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Where Is It?
      #73500 - Thu Sep 07 2006 09:39 AM

Perhaps 'Where Is She?' or 'Where Is Florence?' would have been a better title, but you get the idea. This post may be a bit disorganized - just like Florence is this morning. Tropical Storm Florence has a very large circulation envelope with a very poorly organized central core area.

At least a handful of small swirls can be detected in the visual satellite imagery, however the primary center seems to be the one located at 19.6N 53.1W at 07/12Z. The center is again exposed under continuing southerly shear with primary convection located well off to the northwest and east northeast. Some dry air has wrapped around the large circulation and is entering the central area from the southwest. It will take another day - perhaps longer - before the southerly shear will relax.

Overnight the forward motion of the cyclone has been toward the west northwest (or about 290 degrees) and this general motion should continue for the next couple of days. With high pressure slowly building to the north and a weak and exposed low level center, the lower level steering currents should predominate and a west to west northwest motion seems likely for a few more days - or at least until some significant strengthening occurs.

On intensity it is probably rather generous to label Florence as a 45 knot Tropical Storm - even the inner core banding is quite weak at the moment. Florence is certainly proving the point that large systems sometimes take a long time to 'wrap up', and with southerly shear for yet another day, intensification will likely be held in check for awhile.

Until a firm centerpoint finally establishes itself, model output will remain a bit questionable and shifts in the forecast track can be expected. Movement has been far slower than originally expected and that means that the overall Atlantic basin has had more time to change its patterns as well - all of which will influence the eventual future track of Florence.

Elsewhere, Invest 91L has started to fall victim to the circulation of Florence and 91L is soon expected to become a non-player. Invest 92L, well off the North Carolina coast, has intensified some but it has also started to merge with the front now exiting the east coast - and it too is destined to become a non-player (except that it could add some reinforcement to the ridge behind the front).

Africa at the peak of the season is amazingly empty. Normally at 10N across the continent there would be three or four rather significant tropical waves, but not so today. MJO and other subtle indicators suggest that the season may end early - around mid October - but thats still a bit early to call.
ED


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