Psyber
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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I thought the windspeed was a little low for a 972mb caine'.
Is 10MPH windspeed over a couple hours considered "insiginifant strengthening"?
At least bermuda caught a weaker CAT1 instead of surge from what Florence is heading towards.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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bermuda gets stuff like this every couple of years. doubt they're more than annoyed, as the storm is nowhere near as powerful as early modeling suggested it would be. once it leaves bermuda, the threat to canada is not very high... so that's probably it. later florence, not impressed. fine by me.
recon is in that depression now. they've found the pressure lower than expected (1006) but FL winds reduce to around 30 kt, so it may stay a depression a while longer. noteworthy that most modeling that now sees it take it out further east than florence, so the threat to bermuda (or anywhere for that matter) appears low. has it getting a good bit stronger than the consensus... not to be taken as seriously since we just saw florence progged to do the same. ought to be gordon within 24... would have suspected now, but recon just isn't seeing qualifying winds.
the eastern atlantic ought to crank out another storm or two during the next week-10 days. nothing can threaten unless it keeps weak and on a westward trajectory... troughing in the western and central atlantic is too frequent. ridge should rebuild some over the next two weeks, though.
HF 1807z11september
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
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NRL does now have 07 listed as Gordon, and at 40 knots, in fact. 1006MB is respectable, and from all visible indications, it does already have one rather persistent and tight little vortex, unlike some of these many broad and multi-vortex cyclones so far this season.
That AEW now pushing towards the Cape Verdes is getting a lot of attention from NAMMA , and they expect an intensive mission into it on Wednesday, somewhere near 15N 22W.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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On the return pass through the system, recon found maximum flight level winds of 47 knots in the northeast quad and had an extrapolated SLP of 1005mb - which indeed is respectable since I think that yesterday the pressure had been estimated at 1012mb. Not a big change, but enough when you add in the improvement in overall structure. I'll have to admit that Invest 93L surprised me - tough little cyclone that managed to hold itself together.
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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so we have gordon now...
TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 57.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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This was a great comment from Pasch at the end of Florence. Should be paraphrased whenever a storm is near a body of land.
Even though Florence passed about 48 N mi west and northwest of Bermuda...they were very close to the radius of maximum winds and observations indicate that the island experience hurricane force winds. This is a good reminder that a hurricane is not just a point on the map...and that damaging winds can be experienced well away from the center.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Gordon really appears to be getting his act together this evening. First cyclone I think I've seen all season that has not had so many competing LLCs within a broad, diffuse center. It actually has "the look" of a TC which wants to cane, and cane quickly. As Dr. Lyons described it - he has got the "9".
Of course, the best news for all comes in that the quicker he does intensify, the more likely he is to continue to track off to the north and then perhaps nne. A very good thing he did not form and pull this off somewhere in the GOM, Caribbean or Gulf Stream.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gordon looks to join the likes of debby, and not have any significant impact on any land areas. could also be a challenger for strongest storm of the season if it gets its act together (kinda pathetic, but nothing has cracked cat 2 yet). florence should be gone/extratropical by later wednesday... gordon looks to round out the rest of the week with an active system. we've had an active system every day since august 21... the ball will pass to gordon soon. i'm sure nobody minds these things coming one after another if they just stay out in the open atlantic. florence got bermuda, so it doesn't quite meet the 'docile' criteria... but it wasn't anything the bermudans aren't used to.
out in the eastern atlantic is already mentioning the emerging wave. it does look fairly robust, like something that will develop. maybe not as quickly as most of the global models suggest, but it's had enough support to merit it instant attention. there is a low amplitude wave further west near 35-40w that has had meager model support as well.. and is low/west enough that any development would be more of a potential threat. both are just little nothings for today... quite possibly tomorrow as well.
later runs show the gulf to hatteras low looking more and more over land. there's still a chance it could be blocked in the mid-latitudes, but it doesn't have tropical cyclone or threat written on it for now.
HF 2220z11september
minor addition--ncep's medium range forecast through week 2 has ridging returning to the southeastern u.s. and western atlantic, with troughing in the west. the global models don't show anything tracking under the ridging (gfs quite typically recurves the atlantic activity in a downstream trough in the central atlantic), but if anything were to get under.. say into the caribbean or near the islands, we'd maybe have something to talk about. as of right now, things are looking good, though. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 11 2006 06:30 PM)
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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We have 08L. Noname on the site
NRL Site
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A new Main Page article has been posted.
ED
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