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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea
      #73644 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:27 AM

8PM Tuesday Update
Hurricane Gordon will pass through the Azores tonight. Here are some reporting stations:

Flores
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPFL.html
Horta:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPHR.html
Lajes:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPLA.html
Ponta Delgata:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPPD.html
Santa Maria:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPAZ.html

Hurricane Helene should soon turn northwest and north and remain at sea. Invest 95L has sputtered a little but faces a tough environment ahead, and a small wave has energized near 10N 52W at 20/00Z. This wave is moving westward under light northerly shear.
ED

4:00PM Sunday Update
Gordon is moving out of the picture as Helene is joined by new Invest 95L. More to come... Coop

12PM Saturday Update
As per the 11AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Helene has matured to become the 4th hurricane of the 2006 season. Satellite derived wind and pressure estimates are 75mph and 987mb (29.15inches) respectively. The forecast guidance for intensity calls for steady gains during the next 72 hours, as Helene will be traversing 27+C SSTs and encountering limited shear environment. Officially, she is expected to reach 90kts(~105mph), which is middle range Category 2 strength, in as little as 72 hours. Track expectations are subject to change due to models changing the ideas of the larger synoptic picture. Stay tuned! -John

11PM Wednesday Update
Hurricane Gordon has become the season's first major hurricane, now with winds estimated at 120mph. TD 8 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene with winds at 40mph. The future path for Gordon appears to be quite clear, ultimately out into the North Atlantic, while for Helene it is not as clear. Guidance suggests that it won't quite meet recurvature in the short-term, but the best bet is that it too ultimately recurves somewhere in the open Atlantic. Stay tuned. Nothing else in the basin is currently an imminent development threat. -Clark

11:30PM-Tuesday Update
NHC has upgrade Gordon to Category 1 Hurricane status. With an intermittent eye and better satellite signature Gordon was upgraded at the 10PM Advisory.
5 Day forecast track is presently to the east of Bermuda. Following the 'outflow tail' of Florence.

TD 8 has a rather large circulation and is expected to intensify over the next couple of days. High pressure ridge building to the North of TD8 will keep the system moving near due West for now. Forecasts are for the ridge to break down and allow TD8 to move into the Central North Atlantic.~danielw

11:40AM Update
Tropical Depression #8 has formed in the East Atlantic, there is time to watch this one, but most likely it will be another "fish storm". However, a lot could change in the time it needs to cross the Atlantic, so we will watch this one.



The Atlantic is Active, but nothing is very threatening to land. Could the rest of the season be more active?

Original Post
Hurricane Florence now making the expected turn more to the northeast and will probably soon become a Tropical Storm and then an extratropical cyclone as it moves rapidly across the open waters of the north Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Gordon, with sustained winds near 60mph, was located near 23.3N 57.7W at 12/13Z (my guess at the position - NHC has had the difficult-to-locate storm center a little further to the west). Gordon seems to be moving more to the north northwest and he is eventually expected to reach Hurricane intensity. Gordon should then track to the north and northeast - keeping the storm well out to sea.

Small tropical wave near 13.5N 47W at 12/13Z is experiencing some northerly shear and near-term development is probably not likely.

Invest 94L, in the far eastern Atlantic near 12N 22W at 12/12Z, will be upgraded to Tropical Depression #8 at 11AM by NHC. This system is likely to soon become Tropical Storm Helene - See related posts in the Storm Forum for some thoughts on movement and intensity.

Finally, one more large wave over the African continent near 12N 0.5E at 12/12Z should move into the eastern Atlantic late Thursday. This system has a good possibility of becoming a named storm early next week.

Lots of activity to track in the next two weeks.
ED

Invest 95L:



Tropical Storm Gordon:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Gordon

Helene

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page

Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of TD#8


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73647 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:37 AM

We have TD 8 as of 11 am advisory. Looks like this one could get further west than the last two. Nice to see we will have dropsonde data for this one so soon. THIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON
MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA. THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE
BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
AND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.


Edited by dolfinatic (Tue Sep 12 2006 10:39 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: dolfinatic]
      #73648 - Tue Sep 12 2006 12:57 PM

not terribly often that NHC upgrades a t 1.5 system. guess they have a little more to go with than usual, though. the atlantic looks a little more like what we've come to expect in recent years than it has much of the season. florence will be departing shortly and gordon is of the same mindset (though it'll likely hang around through the weekend).
td 8/future helene is developing early and globals are showing enough weakness in the ridging out in the central atlantic that the best bet is another recuving system. historically speaking you don't see a whole lot of storms that form that far west making it across. we have days to watch it and prognosticate on whether it finds the break or saunters further west than most of the globals are showing.
there's finally some action, and it's turning out to be the kind that doesn't hurt anybody. not bad at all.
HF 1657z12september


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73649 - Tue Sep 12 2006 02:22 PM

Hanks correct....as I stated 2 weeks ago...Florence would be affected by the ridge and wont make it past 65-70W....everything coming off Africa will be heading NW till near 50-60W.....there is a strong trough over the eastern U.S. and there is no bermuda ridge....that will come back though in 2 weeks... but still nothing off Africa will make it cause of the troughiness then over the central Atlantic......unless something forms in the Gulf-Carribean...nothing else should affect the mainland....but in 2 weeks if something forms near the Bahamas it will be pushed WNW towards florida around the Bermuda ridge before.....The westerlys usually get down to near 30N by the 1st week of Oct.....I suspect in 10-14day the Carribean and/or Gulf will try to pick up on something with cooler air moving into the Lakes and NE... higher pressure up north should mean lower pressure down south of 25N.

scottsvb

(Actually it was one week ago - see the Forecast Lounge - but it was still a good long range forecast. Florence didn't become a TD until Sept. 3rd.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 12 2006 04:23 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: scottsvb]
      #73651 - Tue Sep 12 2006 03:22 PM

Perhaps this belongs in another forum, but I have the notion that with the alleged development of a stronger ENSO in October through the remainder of the season and the propensity for that to trigger low pressure in the GOM that a GOM developed system is a distinct probability before this all plays out.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: doug]
      #73652 - Tue Sep 12 2006 04:05 PM

You're correct - I see where there is a good El Nino in place and its forecasted to remain in place for the upcoming winter. I think that this current ENSO event started last month and I'm sure that it contributes to the long wave pattern that places an upper level trough off the east coast and helps to protect the coast by turning storms northward. Don't ask me to explain why, but normally it takes about three months after the start of an ENSO event before any significant impact is seen in the tropical Atlantic - just can't recall when this event began. At any rate, the implication would suggest an earlier end to the season.
Cheers,
ED


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay 27.85N 82.63W
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: dolfinatic]
      #73653 - Tue Sep 12 2006 04:16 PM

looks like the updated track for TD 8 has it curving similar to Gordon. A similar question might have already been asked but what is causing these storms to hook around and go back east and do you think TD 8 will follow Gordon and Florence?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif

(Go back about 5 posts for your answer.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 12 2006 04:26 PM)


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: West FL Jess]
      #73655 - Tue Sep 12 2006 07:46 PM

A glance at what was, what is and what may be...



--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73656 - Tue Sep 12 2006 07:54 PM

almost looks like Gordon is trying to form an eye....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73657 - Tue Sep 12 2006 08:18 PM

I agree. I think his bands (and very nice bands indeed!) are attempting to close off an eye at this hour. He looks as close to a hurricane as we've seen so far. It's probably just a matter of hours, if not sooner.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73658 - Tue Sep 12 2006 08:39 PM

Almost looks like a picture out of another year, doesn't it.

I think this wider shot somewhat illustrates that the two features in the GOM (extreme northwest and northeast) are a little more active than perhaps they are getting credit for. While there does not appear to be any imminent signs of significant organization, the convection and troffiness has been rather persistent. If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.


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SEbLou
Unregistered




Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: scottsvb]
      #73659 - Tue Sep 12 2006 09:47 PM

Am I reading into the models too much, or does it kinda look like the high wants to push TD 8 down as it approaches the weakness?

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73660 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:21 PM

I had hoped the "Cape Verde" season was over from the behaviour of Florence and the "skirt chasing" Gordon regarding "tran-atlantic flights". I'll keep the shutters ready in the Keys but lets hope for a recurve soon enough to give Hamilton a break ... IMHO - eve - Rod

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic [Re: docrod]
      #73662 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:33 PM

GORDON MAKES HURRICANE... NO THREAT TO LAND

HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...FORECAST TO SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER
WATER...
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic [Re: docrod]
      #73663 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:38 PM

Curious for the 11PM Discussion on Gordon. The storm is either being undercut by shear, of it is moving in a more NE'ward direction. Thought it was interesting that the models on SFWMD still show rucurve, but now have a definable kick the the NE in the middle. This is suspicious to see somany models doing that...In a recurve situation...It's gonna have to make a break for it in the weakness (and to the North, NNE, NE, ENE thing), or a little ridging will kick in later on. I've never seen this before, and I'm surprised that the models have this unamious kink without a more westerly component.
As for TD8, I'd say it (soon to be she) does recurve...even being this far south.
In other news, I'm not Meteorologist, but this El Nino type evidence I'm reading would lead me to believe the Atlantic season couldshut down by mid-Oct outside of a rougue storm or to....Similar to the quick shutdown of the '04 season.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic [Re: dem05]
      #73665 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:44 PM Attachment (365 downloads)

Per 11PM Discussion...The westerlies in a few days will weaken...If so...Why the NE kinkin the middle of the models, followed by a NNW motion and recurvature? Decreasing westerlies should prohibit such a "kink" from happening, but the models look unanimous on it occurring. Maybe the models are underplaying a potential passage of the trough followed by a stall in motion in a few days. It is interesting...Please see attatched.

Edited by dem05 (Tue Sep 12 2006 10:54 PM)


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Probabilities & Possibilities [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73666 - Tue Sep 12 2006 10:46 PM

After looking at most of the models, it looks like the main factor discerning TD8's track is going to be how fast or slow Gordon gets outta the way. He's going to be right in the middle of the Atlantic Ridge and a high pressure ridge in Canada that's going to be trying to push through. If Gordon takes his sweet time and lolly gags north bound that'll give us a better chance of TD8 to follow. Kinda like Moses parting the sea. And if he scoots outta the way really fast then the Atlantic ridge will build back in and hold TD8 down. The GFS is showing a rather strong high pressure over Canada that Gordo will be blocking. Of course placement of the ridge is going to be a major contributing factor as well. And if that weren't enough to rack your brain over, some of the models are showing a closed low developing over the N.C. coast in 72 hours. This is all going to be about timing and luck. Jeff Masters only gives it a 20% chance of making it, lets hope he's right. Things are really heating up.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: A Quick Look [Re: cieldumort]
      #73668 - Wed Sep 13 2006 12:42 AM

Quote:

Almost looks like a picture out of another year, doesn't it.

I think this wider shot somewhat illustrates that the two features in the GOM (extreme northwest and northeast) are a little more active than perhaps they are getting credit for. While there does not appear to be any imminent signs of significant organization, the convection and troffiness has been rather persistent. If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.



There's nothing there in the Gulf.

You've got a big hairy cold front comprised of a REALLY vigorous low over Chicago with a "double drape" off both ends. The leading trough has buckled back and even retrograded a bit and now the trailing one is being driven into it. Its a setup for some serious rain all along and in front of the boundary, and we've been getting hammered all week.

It should push through around tomorrow night, and then things will cool off and dry out. The only way you get cyclogenesis out of this is if you get a cutoff low in the gulf from this thing, and I just don't see the setup for that at the present time. If anything you might get a cut-off somewhere off the east coast after the second trough comes through and overruns the first - that I wouldn't count out as a possibility somewhere around the turn of the week, but it'll be off the Atlantic seaboard if it happens - I just don't see the impulse dying off in the gulf that would leave the "remnant" to start something.

Now maybe in a couple of weeks, but right now all that convection over the gulf and adjacent land has no closed circulation and no real way for one to spin up with the surface features right in the neighborhood.

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: Genesis]
      #73669 - Wed Sep 13 2006 02:03 AM


The CMC model run has the high pressure holding longer and puts the storm over the Leeward Is. The GFS also reflects on this as well.

--------------------


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: A Quick Look [Re: Genesis]
      #73670 - Wed Sep 13 2006 03:15 AM

I hope that no one arrived at the conclusion that I am suggesting something is now brewing in the GOM ("If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.") - but perhaps to clarify, I might add that it is noteworthy that for the first time in a while the GOM has been convectively active lately - such that should conditions become more favorable, there's already some stuff to work with.

There has been a little bit of model support for a small closed coastal low - and one perhaps marginally on the warm core side of things - to form over the next day or two or three in the northeastern GOM .. most particularly the WRF seems to have been liking this. Other models seem to prefer to wait for the region of potential to cross Florida or Georgia and get over the Stream before suggesting anything could come of it.

As perhaps mentioned above, there have been a few interesting model gyrations along the path of both Gordon and 8. It's hard to believe that NHC's track for both of these cyclones aren't very close to being on target, but the fact that a few model plots are doing some wiggling and giggling does somewhat suggest that the door may indeed be at least slightly open for future adjustments.


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