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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: AL 962006 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73802 - Wed Sep 20 2006 05:43 AM

AL962006



--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: AL 962006 [Re: Humanriff]
      #73807 - Wed Sep 20 2006 11:37 AM

I can't explain why, but I could guess. I can't even guess why I just now tried twice to post a url for you to follow (to africa) but they didn't appear when my post showed up in the forum???
Nevertheless, just click on the sattelite image on the upper right of the FLHurricane main page and you'll get one.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 21 2006 08:07 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: AL 962006 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73809 - Wed Sep 20 2006 01:35 PM

As unimpressive as 96L looks at this time - this could end up one for us to watch closely, as it is starting out a fairly low latitude, and - more importantly - currently forecast to stay that way for some time -- although near-term I might actually be more drawn to what is going on closer to 12.5N 30W, which could be yanked NW here in a bit. Simply put, there seems to be more happening at 12.5/30. Another wiggle at roughly 12.5/45 looks like a candidate for Invest tagging if it holds it's own for another day or so, and gets some meat on it's bones. As HF discussed, it is currently in an unfavorable position relative to Helene, but this could be easing some in the near future.
Good viewing of these on the RGB zoom.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 20 2006 02:02 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: AL 962006 [Re: cuidado]
      #73810 - Wed Sep 20 2006 01:35 PM

climatologically speaking we shouldn't see too much more out of these african waves, as far as them developing west of about 40w, after this week. nevertheless GFS shows a repetitious cycle of development near and west of the cape verdes, with the recurvature paths all between 45-65w. some of this is probably spurious, but enough is there to believe there will be at least another storm or two (96L is probably one) that will develop in the eastern atlantic before things shut off. it's also possible that deteriorating upper air conditions (which is usually what shuts the area off, as upper troughing begins to hang off northwest africa near constantly by mid fall) will just lead to the waves developing more slowly, i.e. closer to the caribbean. of course, they may just not develop at all. always a possibility.
we're going to have a few days where the western atlantic ridge is rebuilt, but it isn't holding. nao is positive, which is probably why. usually the ridge holds up better with a negative NAO, with persistent troughing over the continent and not along the eastern seaboard. the ridging is zonal in nature, though.. anything that stays weak/low can maybe sneak through.
recurving gordon and helene should thwack far western europe pretty good over the next week. reminds me of the fall 2000. that big cool high dropping into the east in early october depicted on some of the GFS runs does also.
HF 1734z20september
oh, i see riff's post and clark's reply. got carted over to the storm forum... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 20 2006 01:36 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: AL 962006 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73812 - Wed Sep 20 2006 11:39 PM

Lest we forget last year when there was apparently enough oceanic heat content to keep the season going through Zeta - combined with some uniqueness in the indices probably.

Anyway, there is a warm SST anomaly persisting along the CV route, which can be seen here:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.18.2006.gif

For the more general reader: Climate can burn us if we adhere to it too closely... It is meant for a foundation, off of which we find ways to get screwed for using it...basically. That's one way of looking at it. The other way is that climatology is the average of all those weird anomalies, regardless of extremeness, over huge lengths of time. The key is in the term "anomalies". Perhaps at some point an early October CV wave will develop and travers the entire ocean and strike somewhere unsuspectingly...because they believed in climatology. In fact, I do recall learning of some early November gales in Colonial times that sounded suspiciously like hurricanes to me. They just referred to them as "gales" and that was it. But they spoke of water surges and "unusually strong winds". Of course, those did not have to be CV either. Point being, nothing is impossible and having warm tropical E Atl SSTs seemingly destined to prevail this autumn, some extension of the season is likely.

John.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 20 2006 11:40 PM)


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: AL 962006 [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73813 - Thu Sep 21 2006 01:34 AM

Quote:

Point being, nothing is impossible and having warm tropical E Atl SSTs seemingly destined to prevail this autumn, some extension of the season is likely.





I find this observation particularly interesting in light of what the 00Z run of the GFS is showing two weeks down the road -- a cyclone moving north of Hispaniola and then bearing down on southeast Florida (keeping in mind that the models are notoriously unreliable this far out and quite literally are likely to be all over the map between now and then).


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: AL 962006 [Re: saluki]
      #73814 - Thu Sep 21 2006 01:57 AM

The one to two week outlooks from GFS have been prognosticating unrealized east coast hurricanes all season long. There's very little to glean from models out past five days, other than some *possible* larger-picture patterns --- IMHO, nailing the micro stuff that far out (such as a hurricane at a given location) is wishcasting at best.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
96L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73815 - Thu Sep 21 2006 07:20 AM

I don't see much coverage on 96L; anything happening? Everything seems weirdly quiet for the middle of September. :?:

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 96L [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73817 - Thu Sep 21 2006 10:38 AM

The latest models on 96L.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Interesting that there is some divergence among the BAM_ models. Aren't they usually pretty
much in line with each other?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: 96L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73818 - Thu Sep 21 2006 11:32 AM

The link you provided gives "Access Forbidden!"

J~


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 96L [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73819 - Thu Sep 21 2006 12:58 PM

96 still looks like a real slow starter. The circulation - if one can call it that - is quite broad and diffuse, with lots of somewhat dry air and little in the way of convection .. even shallow convection is in short supply ~ pun ~

Helene simply has not recovered from her eyewall replacement cycle, and if anything, NHC - by their own admissions - have been issuing possibly generous advisory wind speeds on her. Scarcely the former major hurricane that she was.

Looks like, smells like, loops like 2006. Not a bad thing


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 96L [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73821 - Thu Sep 21 2006 01:26 PM

Sorry about that...try this a click on Early Guidance Frame 1:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Neat tiny little vortex... [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73822 - Thu Sep 21 2006 02:15 PM

Near 12N/48W is a tiny little vortex - not 96L. I wondered if this was there yesterday actually, but at the time some of Helene's outflow canopy was obscuring.

Not likely to develop given the current lack of convection but there is definitely a nifty little closed vortex evidence by the cu field at said location. It did at one time have some moderate shower activity, up until yesterday I believe. If this hold together on this W heading and enters the eastern Caribbean...might be fun to watch, regardless.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Neat tiny little vortex... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73823 - Thu Sep 21 2006 03:55 PM

Funny you should mention that. I just noticed it as well. Looks like its past the outflow from Helene. See a couple of small thundertorm clusters firing too (very small ones)

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73824 - Thu Sep 21 2006 07:26 PM

As we observe a subtle come back to Helene's intensity, while she charges to her North Sea death... a quick update on 96L:

Closer inspection of the satellite presentation shows a tendency for anvil debris to blow from S to N across the general axis of rotation, which of course is suggestive of shear in the area. There is a weak TUTT situated near 22N/43W and this is likely the culprit for said shear.

Interestingly, given the shallow nature of the still rather amorphous circulation, I believe this is allowing the system the W or slight W-NW motion. Notice the guidance that attempts to develop this quicker tend to also give it the NW component the earliest, which is then used to ultimately curve it up into the Reeper's arms. It may be that they develop convection deeply through this shear layer and atone for it by establishing this NW motion.

Given to the resistence to generate core-centered convection, this process may be premature in the guidance, when balanced against these observations. However, I do detect subtle increase in the cyclonic curl then this time yesterday. (It is noted that less closed circulation is being lifted in latitude as per the 18Z GFS operational guidance. Poor initialization could be culprit but also the shallower nature appears to keep more W motion.)

Guidance unanimously damps said TUTT feature so it is unclear where the steering mechanism would come from beyond about 36 hours from now. Timing that attenuation, of its ability to exert a NW pull, along with rate of development of any TC will be key in assessing whether this gains all the latitude as quickly as the GFS cluster... Notice the CMC has much more southerly component off the 12Z guidance.

John


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73826 - Fri Sep 22 2006 09:18 AM

Been watching 96L for awhile still not sure if its going to be somebody when it grows up. The NHC keeps an eye on it, but to my untrained eye, I can't tell. If it does become Isaac, looks like it will follow Gordon & Helene?

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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: emptying out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73827 - Fri Sep 22 2006 09:40 AM

Quote:

if something gets the US this season it will probably be the bay of campeche-northeast or western caribbean-north moving types.



"There was a little girl, who had a little curl... "

So, just like HF has been looking for, the little circulation dropped off by the unseasonably early cold front two days ago is now spinning prettily around the western tip of Cuba.

Does it have enough time, space, LLC to turn into anything horrid?


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