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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: future system? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73857 - Tue Sep 26 2006 10:09 AM

97L is up on the navy site but it looks like they just changed 96L to 97L. Can someone explain this to me ?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 97L [Re: HCW]
      #73858 - Tue Sep 26 2006 10:54 AM

Good question - it looks like somebody got careless. Either NHC sent the wrong centerpoint coordinates to NRL, or NRL, didn't input the correct coordinates. Invest 96L has centerpoint coordinates of 21.4N 49.0W - but there is nothing there. Coordinates for 96L probably should have been 22.4N 49.0W. The 12Z tropical model runs for 96L were initialized with 21.4N 49.0W - so the model run is not very useful and the mistake was probably made by NHC.

Invest 97L has listed centerpoint coordinates of 20.0N 47.0W, but once again there is nothing there - matter of fact there is nothing at 20N across the entire basin - so we have no idea where Invest 97L was meant to be until the error is corrected.

Added: I checked some high resolution images and there is a weak circulation at the 97L coordinates, however, it would be highly unusual for NHC to assign two Invests against a potentially developing system since many systems in their early stages of development have multiple vorticies. I also see where Invest 97L is listed at 10 knots??? Maybe the real mistake was listing 97L.
Cheers,
ED


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meto23
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73859 - Tue Sep 26 2006 12:03 PM

97 is southeast of 96 near 10 and 35 west.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Re: 97L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73860 - Tue Sep 26 2006 12:41 PM

I think you might be right about that - Upon zooming in quite a bit on 10N 35W one can make out a weak, but sizable, low level circulation embedded within the northern portion of the ITCZ. Looks like it may stay north enough as to not become devoured back into the ITCZ, and perhaps slowly trend WNW. If that is where they meant to place 97 this all makes more sense (As splitting 96 into two distinct centers at this point seems entirely premature, especially given that the 22.5N 49W coc is so much better developed than the pimple near 20N)

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


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Re:western carib [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73861 - Tue Sep 26 2006 04:45 PM

the area in the western caribbean blew up again this afternoon but from what i have heard the atmosphere is not conducive for development right now. is there any possibility of this potentially developing or is this gonna just run into the yucatan? the latest NOGAPS has backed off something forming in that area after a few runs of generating something.

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re:western carib [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #73862 - Tue Sep 26 2006 06:14 PM

What I am finding interesting - very interesting - is a clever little spin that has been brewing and is now clear as a bell - on the southwestern portion of the wave which the 1010mb (estimated) low (96L) is a part of. This new low level circulation center is located near 15.5N 55W. You can easily locate both of these low level circulation centers here.


This is a vigorous wave, imparting a good deal of potential spin along it's entire length, and I would be fairly surprised if something does not come of it sooner or later.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


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Re:western carib [Re: cieldumort]
      #73863 - Tue Sep 26 2006 06:36 PM

Well, the SW Caribbean may take a while yet before something gets going there. NOGAPS has been flip-flopping on that, but its in a favorable area climate-speaking. Area SW of 96L was the one I thought NRL dubbed 97L. This has really been siamese twins for the last few days, and it will be interesting to see if it can break loose from the influence of brother. There is some evidence of LLC but its hard to tell if its part of the elongated center of 96L. Visibles no longer available today, but if it becomes its own entity, it may well develop if conditions ahead are favorable. Otherwise all is quiet in the CONUS!! Cheers!!

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cieldumort
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Re:western carib [Re: Steve H1]
      #73864 - Tue Sep 26 2006 07:03 PM

Hmmm. I'll have to comment on this piece by piece.

NRL had listed Invest 97L's centerpoint coordinates at about 20.0N 47.0W, which is lightyears away from 15.5N 50W, so even if this placement was intentional, they were (were, because 97 has since been taken down) not "seeing" what I am referring to tonight.

Indeed, for practically the entire duration of "96L" there have been two competing LLCs - early on the southernmost center was far more impressive - and then, literally overnight - 96 was re-centered much farther to the north (which has been the LLC tracked since).

There is no question that there is another low level center near 15.5N 50W this afternoon, but whether it is also truly at the surface is still unknown.


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Storm Cooper
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Re:western carib [Re: cieldumort]
      #73867 - Tue Sep 26 2006 09:13 PM

I'll go out on a limb and say I think our season is winding down, fast. If this proves to be the case, fine by me! The only "close to home" possible area of trouble I see is along the trof pushing off the gulf / east coast picking up an area of low pressure. Posts before me point out that the NOGAPS early run tries to spin something up along these lines... but the 12Z NOGAPS drops any hint of development. Got to keep in mind also the High over the southeast forecast to move SE toward the GOM in time...

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re:western carib [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73868 - Wed Sep 27 2006 07:59 AM

I wouldn't say things are winding down. It's only the end of September the season has 2 more months to go. It only takes one Wilma to make it a bad season. We still could have a few storms in October.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re:western carib [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73870 - Wed Sep 27 2006 12:51 PM


Something new to talk about; though I love a quiet year.

The area of low pressure...located about 850 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands...has become a little better defined this morning. If this trend continues...a tropical depression could form later today or tonight.


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HanKFranK
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Re:western carib [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73871 - Wed Sep 27 2006 01:44 PM

that system, 96L... is already a depression and should get the upgrade at 5. not so sure it will make tropical storm, though. it's in an environment that will lead to continued struggling, despite the improved but still-sheared appearance. SSTs on the track are also low, thanks to all the recent storms tracking over the same region.
another mid-level vortmax developed on the same wave further south the other day. there's a small convective flare and a surface trough associated. should inch closer to the leeward islands, but like the official says, not much chance of development. if it does, big trough near the east coast would probably drag it up. most of the caribbean and the western atlantic has been dominated by a stable environment this season; storms have not developed or tracked there, short of struggling appearances by chris and Ernesto. too much TUTT activity, and synoptic sinking motions have dominated there. when nothing gets through there, generally we get a quiet hurricane season.
we've had a fairly average season thus far in terms of numbers, in spite of everything seeming so dead. if you compare it to just the 1995-2005 recent active span, we're close to the bottom (1997) at this juncture.
HF 1744z27september


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re:western carib [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73872 - Wed Sep 27 2006 02:01 PM

I'll bite on the TD call, as well. For the second time, it would seem that 96 is a TD - of course, the first time several of us were agreeing so it fell victim to shear within mere hours and never got the upgrade. I can only imagine that NHC wants to be cautious with any upgrade to 96, even now. Still, despite the seemingly never-ending beating from shear it has undergone, on the plus side of the upgrade column, 96 has been one extremely tenacious feature. But, I think it's worth noting that the LLC is still quite exposed.

That little vortice to 96's SW clearly became more convectively active overnight, and this has persisted into today. Buoy reports in the area strongly suggest a small, closed surface low may be there, but also highlight pressures which are not falling much - if at all, and winds that are still pretty light. The reason this feature is of more interest to me than 96 despite significantly less chances for near term development is it's location south of 20N and west of 55W - could be a sleeper cell if it sneaks under the radars of all of those scissors ahead. I give it very low odds - but for potentially impacting the mainland and/or points close - a higher threat than 96 which is almost certain to recurve before getting anywhere near the states.

I'll have to amend the observation of 96 to mention that it appears a new LLC may have spun up and is attempting to nuzzle under some deep convection at roughly 52.5W 26.25N - which could effectively recenter the cyclone, as well as, of course, intensify it with the potentially improved structure. Be interesting if we have Isaac by 11PM. It's been walking the sub-TD/TD line now for a week. Can anyone think of a longer-lasting Invest that wasn't either just dropped, or upgraded, at some point within 144 hours?

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 27 2006 02:22 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re:western carib [Re: cieldumort]
      #73873 - Wed Sep 27 2006 02:37 PM

The Navy site has already upgraded their site to 09NONAME

NRL Site


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re:western carib [Re: cieldumort]
      #73876 - Wed Sep 27 2006 03:09 PM

(dont remember invest number, may have been 98L) in 2004 was designated an invest (this was the wave that preceded Ivan's wave) on August 28, continued in teh atlantic, recurved, and became TD10 near the Azores on September 10

the invest that occured (92L) between TD2 stage and named stage of Bonnie lasted for about a week (Aug 4-10) in 2004

'08 changed to '04
this is what happens when im on six different sites at once

Me thinks Rabbit can't quite predict 2008's activity yet, so I think the 2008 above should be 2004. --Clark

Edited by Rabbit (Wed Sep 27 2006 03:55 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re:western carib [Re: Rabbit]
      #73877 - Wed Sep 27 2006 04:39 PM

TD 9 is up at the NHC site, another fish spinner:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re:western carib [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73878 - Wed Sep 27 2006 04:47 PM

Fish spinners are a good thing. Let's hope they all take this route for the rest of the season.

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