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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2282
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Past Peak
      #73828 - Fri Sep 22 2006 09:49 AM

Update - Monday 9/25 - 9AM
The former 'Helene' is now a powerful extratropical storm moving northeast in the north central Atlantic.

Invest 96L, located about 1000 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, is fighting significant shear and is not as well organized as it was on Sunday. The system is disorganized, convection is displaced to the east and northeast, the low level circulation remains weak and further development is questionable.

A small but active wave located near 9N 30W at 25/12Z is moving slowly to the west. Strong shear exists to the south of the system, however, the wave will move away from this negative influence in a couple of days and some additional development is possible by mid-week.

Another wave is currently exiting the west African coast, but the remainder of the African continent looks rather quiet this morning.
ED

Original Post
Invest 96L is slowly consolidating - located near 12N 38W at 22/12Z and moving west northwest to northwest at 10 knots. Additional slow development is likely - and the system should move northwest following the trend of its predecessors.

Hurricane Helene, now at Category I, is moving northeast into the north Atlantic and she will become a strong extratropical cyclone in a couple of days.

One more smaller wave is about to exit west Africa - but thats about it over Africa as the Cape Verde season is winding down. Wind shear is on the increase (did it ever really subside this season?) in the Gulf of Mexico and in the central Atlantic north of 15N. This leaves the Caribbean Sea and the Bahamas as just about the only areas remaining that would be favorable for development in October. With increasing fall frontal activity across the continental U.S., the Bahamas area will soon shut down as well.

The peak of the season has come and gone - and so far, so good. Still areas of interest to watch, but nobody in grave danger - and with luck, the remainder of the season will continue that trend.
ED

Invest 96L


Helene

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 25 2006 09:21 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Past Peak [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73829 - Fri Sep 22 2006 12:04 PM

as far as remaining threats, the caribbean is pretty much the only place i'd expect any. the atlantic subtropics usually don't have much happen later unless there are cutoff lows getting stuck, with an nao negative type blocky pattern. we're stuck on positive and have been most of the late summer/early fall... with this zonal ridging and short-lived blocking east of the canadian maritimes.. that doesn't foster much besides booting things out quickly in the subtropics and sending wave energy in the caribbean over into the pacific.
helene is heading out. 96L is still diffuse... broad area of turning but convection is disorganized. it has a modest chance of development. future prog is, like ed said, up and out. the weak wave near 52w is slightly more interesting, but has little/no prospect to develop. new wave coming off. as we go into october the tropical atlantic will quickly shut down, meaning these waves are only a development threat in the caribbean.. and that's only if an amplification over the continent can 'logjam' the flow down there and cause things to spin up/come up. westerly anomalies at low levels from the pacific can also aid this. long range modeling doesn't show a whole lot, but is suggestive this typical sort of fall mechanism may pop up a little going into next month.
HF 1604z22september

additional thought: haven't been keeping up with MJO that much, but if i had to guess where the active wave is, i'd reckon it's heading out of the basin, and that a new one is going in the western pacific. things might be on the quiet side for a couple/three of weeks (but not necessarily silent) until it comes back around. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 22 2006 12:18 PM)


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Past Peak [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73830 - Fri Sep 22 2006 12:39 PM

HF:

Left-over post (9:40 this am) to your "emptying out" post on previous thread follows:

Quote:

if something gets the US this season it will probably be the bay of campeche-northeast or western caribbean-north moving types.




"There was a little girl, who had a little curl... "

So, just like HF has been looking for, the little circulation dropped off by the unseasonably early cold front two days ago is now spinning prettily around the western tip of Cuba.

Does it have enough time, space, LLC to turn into anything horrid?

(Tell me why not...)
bq

(It is not necessary to repeat a post from one thread to the next - and the question would have been better suited to the PM capability) ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 22 2006 04:35 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Past Peak [Re: cuidado]
      #73831 - Fri Sep 22 2006 01:34 PM

There might be a system that would want to get alot further west and into the carribean in a week or 2 ....as the models continue to show a strong trough over the central and eastern U.S. the central and western ridge should be strong enough to keep anything south of 20N and west of 40 more w or wnw until it reaches Cuba....then anything would be deflected N thru the bahamas or florida as it feels the trough...but thats if something forms...so we would have to wait and see....96L wont affect the U.S. but its hard to say that even if it does develop and get caught be the ridge next week..it will be too far N and curve out to sea later on.

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bhnole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Past Peak [Re: cuidado]
      #73832 - Fri Sep 22 2006 01:36 PM

Quote:

HF:

Left-over post (9:40 this am) to your "emptying out" post on previous thread follows:

Quote:

if something gets the US this season it will probably be the bay of campeche-northeast or western caribbean-north moving types.




"There was a little girl, who had a little curl... "

So, just like HF has been looking for, the little circulation dropped off by the unseasonably early cold front two days ago is now spinning prettily around the western tip of Cuba.

Does it have enough time, space, LLC to turn into anything horrid?

(Tell me why not...)
bq





Looks like an upper low to me. No convection whatsoever in a very dry environment. I don't see much going on there.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I am loving this season so far!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
GOM Low [Re: bhnole]
      #73833 - Fri Sep 22 2006 09:53 PM

Atmospheric forcing and proximity to the mid/ upper low is producing some showers and thunderstorms along the SW Florida Peninsula. The ULL appears to have atmospheric connections to the Nicaraguan/ Honduras Border.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: GOM Low [Re: danielw]
      #73834 - Sat Sep 23 2006 12:16 AM

96 appears to be improving tonight - One can tell by the water vapor loop here that deep convection is *perhaps* working into a wide and lengthy, yet weak, banding-like feature(s) - now encircling the southern, eastern, and northern extents of the weak surface cyclone, now readily evident on this recent QuikScat pass.

Also evident with tonight's water vapor loop - shear appears to be much less imposing as before. Still, it will be critical to 96's future development to fill in that inner core, and it may still take a little while for this to occur.

-Changing gears only a little - don't know if you've all been as astounded by the past week's worth of November -like tornado outbreaks, but this really looks like an early Fall/early Winter deal getting put together - if it sticks.

-I normally don't like to bring up models, let alone bring them up past 72 hours out... but isn't that 18Z GFS run interesting...


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: GOM Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #73836 - Sat Sep 23 2006 02:43 AM

yeah, these tornado-producing colorado lows tracking through the midwest look like late fall systems. even though the temps are warm, we're in what is pretty much a mature autumn pattern. 96L has a good bit more deep convection concentrated in the latest imagery (currently in blackout)... maybe finally going to organize rather than just sputter along. helene is on it's way out, and we haven't had an 'empty' day since august 21 (september 2 had no NHC advisories, but Ernesto was still a transitioning tropical cyclone on that day as per hpc advisories). 96L might turn into something soon enough to keep the ball rolling there.
most of the globals take the wave following 96L due west to the caribbean over the following week... scott noted that they are were intermittently picking up on it as a development threat going into next month. that's something to chew on, but we are days away. this season thus far has resembled more of the long-term average you'd expect, rather than the flurry of active seasons we've had lately. el nino seems to be at work, in spite of the widespread slightly warmer-than-average SSTs in the basin.
HF 0643z23september


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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: Past Peak [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73838 - Sat Sep 23 2006 04:25 AM

Just had to mention that where I live is at the tip of Helene's 5 day cone!!! (I know - 5 days are a long time in forecasts and it'll deffo be extratropical etc etc).

Gordon's remains just passed by. The ridging over your side is shoving them all up to us. Of course by the time they arrive, they are just major autumn storms. And nice hot Spanish air was also shoved up a couple of days ago.
Glad to say my forecast figures were wrong this year - no way they could catch up now, even with a couple of months still to go.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: future system? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73840 - Sat Sep 23 2006 10:28 PM

just looking at the latest GFDL model run for 96L and it doesnt develop it at all now, but what is picked up is what the GFS has been suggesting for the last few days of a system further south and approaching the northern islands in about 5-6 days. its track is almost identical to the GFS so it will be interesting to see if this pans out. if something is going to develop where the models are picking up on this then it does bear watching.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: future system? [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #73841 - Sat Sep 23 2006 10:52 PM

Well, perhaps for pretty much the first time convection is firing right in the middle of 96s coc tonight - and a tenacious little vortex it has been. Banding features are also more apparent in the SE quad. You can see all of this for yourself here, with the RGB loop.
Should this scurrent trend continue - especially if it continues to deepen and the banding expands a bit overnight - we could easily have 9 on Sunday, IMHO. Movement has trended NNW, but best I can tell it is nearly stalled at the moment.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: future system? [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #73842 - Sat Sep 23 2006 11:07 PM

Quote:

just looking at the latest GFDL model run for 96L and it doesnt develop it at all now, but what is picked up is what the GFS has been suggesting for the last few days of a system further south and approaching the northern islands in about 5-6 days. its track is almost identical to the GFS so it will be interesting to see if this pans out. if something is going to develop where the models are picking up on this then it does bear watching.




I noticed this, too. Hmm.
Something is going on out there because there is a TW that is approximately 600nm SSE of the Cape Verdis and "appears" to be moving WSW at this time. It is likely that the models are choosing this feature to do that with.

I think as I did last week, that as long as we still have sufficient deep layer easterlies, since the SSTs are running warmer than normal this could prolong the ending a little. Ed was mentioning shear but taking the GFDL, that is actually the most favorable we've seen the region S of 30 N all season, beyond 96 hours. So even though he is dead on accurate to say that shear should be increasing, climate is just another rule that is meant to be broken.

I suspect with the deep trough (some 2SD below normal) slated to move through the central and eastern states through the late middle range and extended, this will help drive up heights off into the Atlantic. Such a construct would tend to favor things at deep latitudes, beneath this resulting ridge amplification.

Still some hope if you are a hurricane enthusiast.

I do agree though that ultimately, getting a protracted Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean season is more difficult this year, do primarily to the advent of weak El Nino. We should see the genesis of more mlv westerlies across these areas. Time will tell.

John


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: future system? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73843 - Sun Sep 24 2006 01:28 AM

96L looks like a tropical depression tonight. you can see the low cloud lines feeding into the convection west of the big burst.. and there's a general gyre in the whole region. to me, looks like a typical multi-vortex depression under some shear. wouldn't take a whole lot of improvement for the NHC to maybe decide the same thing. of course, this wave is already well to the north.. and even if it gets forced westward for a couple of days, it'll just ride a trough it like the last few.
all we can do is watch with the interesting wave to the east of that. it's days away from organization... but there is a developing case with the model consensus that it will get further west than the others. since we're in the time of year where the caribbean is suspect, we might have something talk about days down the road if it pans out.
we haven't had a hurricane season this dull in a while, though. almost forgot what it was like. there's still a chance something could mix things up, but the later it gets, the less there is.
HF 0528z24september


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: future system? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73844 - Sun Sep 24 2006 03:25 AM

Two distinct circulations one near 19N 42W and the other near 15N 42W. It would appear that the 19N circ has dominated overnight, but the mean of the original broad area of low pressure remains near 15N 42W, best I can tell. Really, 19N 42W looks like a depression center early this morning.. but I think that depending on how much each coc is being held back by the other may greatly influence whether or not one or the other gets the call, at all, today.

If I were making the calls I suspect I would give it "9" today, but by my count we are already then at 11.


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: future system? [Re: cieldumort]
      #73846 - Sun Sep 24 2006 07:28 PM

From the Sunday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N43.7W NEAR STATIONARY.
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SW OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 39W-42W.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY AS IT DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/241751.shtml?


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: future system? [Re: danielw]
      #73851 - Mon Sep 25 2006 12:43 AM

eh, it's still unchanged.. just a sheared low. helene is out, nothing is rushing to take its place. september 25 might be the first 'quiet' day we've had in a while... though all of the noise this month has been way out in the middle of nowhere since Ernesto started things off.
the colostate guys are calling for a quiet october. might be a bit of a challenge to beat september.
HF 0443z25september


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: future system? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73852 - Mon Sep 25 2006 08:27 AM

Quote:

eh, the colostate guys are calling for a quiet october. might be a bit of a challenge to beat september.
HF 0443z25september




HF- Are you talking Colorado State from September or did they come out with a new October; if so I can't see it.

One of the local Mets last night on the news reminded everyone here that the season runs to the end of November and not to get complacent.

i believe the forecast october numbers were 1 nonmajor hurricane, 1 tropical storm. the october update doesn't come out until next week. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Sep 25 2006 10:14 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: future system? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73853 - Mon Sep 25 2006 09:24 AM

Anybody catch this blow-up just north of South America...may give us something to watch.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: future system? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73854 - Mon Sep 25 2006 03:43 PM

From the afternoon HPC extended forecast discussion. Looks more like a climatological note, rather than any real indication of an imminet system:

WESTERN CARIBBEAN MID TO LATE PERIOD...
THE MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRESSURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE
NOGAPS CURRENTLY ATTEMPTS A TROPICAL-TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. CLIMATOLOGY IS ON ITS SIDE...AS WE ARE ENTERING OCTOBER WHEN
ACTIVITY SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE REGION. THE MANUAL PROGS SHOW
NOTHING BUT BROAD LOW PRESSURE...FOR THE TIME BEING.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: future system? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73855 - Mon Sep 25 2006 10:24 PM

96L is still sheared, but with an impressive amount of deep convection, now. the elongated center is currently tracking just north of west, near 20/46. most of the globals show it riding out through a trough fracture in the central atlantic. it'll have trouble making a neat recurvature as far east as the recent storms, since the SSTs there are low from upwelling and maintaining a strong circulation would be difficult. nevertheless, large troughing developing in the eastern u.s./western atlantic late week should cause it to whip up and out.
the system to its southeast has potential to be much more interesting. it is tracking due west at low latitude, and despite a rather bizarre stall/eastward drift shown in recent model runs, is likely to continue that way for some time. it's in a favorable upper environment, and has the early characteristics of another developer. it's getting almost too late for a tropical system to make it very far west, so in the long term it still has a high chance of recurvature if it develops. a slow/gradual development and far westward track is possible, however.
VA-ed brought up the hpc comment... it's true there's a big early fall trough-pattern setting up in the east. ridging is supposed to build back some going into early october. that kind of oscillating ridge-trough pulse is usually what stirs up thsoe famous tropical systems in the western caribbean, as it tends to mass and then draw up heat/moisture from the tropics. it happens every year, sometimes with action and sometimes with none. the puff down there right now is 'seen' in some of the globals, but tracked wnw past the yucatan rather inconsequentially. slightly interesting, but 96L and the wave trailing it are the two real items of interest right now.
HF 0224z26september


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