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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: wannabes [Re: cieldumort]
      #74018 - Sun Oct 15 2006 07:23 PM

Good discussions, and it is also worth noting that whatever center there is, is not over land as indicated by the latest TWO. System has produced multiple swirls during the day - with the latest at 23.3N 96.3W at 23Z, which is well over water. Organization remains poor, but it is holding together - has quite an uphill battle though before it can amount to anything more than a breezy rainmaker.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: wannabes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74019 - Mon Oct 16 2006 12:53 AM

A bit off topic. 92L had been termed a "pseudo-tropical" system by SPC a bit earlier tonight.
It now appears that the tropical airmass tornado threat that NWS Slidell, LA mentioned earlier has arrived.

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for SW LA and SE TX, until 7 AM CDT.

I've also seen mention of former EPAC TD Norman's remnants mixing in with the GOM Low and W TX Shortwave. That's a Tropical airmass!

HPC mentioning isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches from S and SE TX NE to the ARK/LA/MS region.

edit: Buras,LA has been at or near TS Force winds for the last few hours. Seem to recall a peak gust of 41mph. Lowest pressure last hour was just across the Rio Grande at Del Rio,TX. Surface pressure of 999mb!

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 16 2006 12:56 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: wannabes [Re: danielw]
      #74020 - Mon Oct 16 2006 01:13 AM

eh, not gonna make it in the gulf. the system out north of puerto rico has slightly better chances as it is over water, but there's almost certainly too much shear at work to let it do much. if it keeps hanging around through the early part of the week it might have a long-term shot, but right now the odds are stacked against.
should have cool, rainy weather here east of the appalachians for the next few... good wedge scenario set up with the high northeast and the deepening low back over texas. this sort of pattern in the winter usually has us pondering frozen precip, but in october it's a weak attempt at a tropical storm and a nice cool monday.
HF 0512z16october


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: wannabes [Re: danielw]
      #74021 - Mon Oct 16 2006 01:13 AM

I read that, also. Calling the system approaching the coast "pseudo-tropical" is probably about as accurate and honest as it gets. The past few days the broader area of low pressure has spun out short-lived lower-level spins, occasionally some of these have been strong-enough to discern a loose cyclonic surface center. Alas, the original center fix for 92L has been written off, and convection has abated (much as it did last night) - but possibly more so tonight because the warm front - helping to fan it's flames - has moved well north. If there is any semblance of 92L left tonight, it is probably most visible in that "pseudo-tropical" system now producing gales offshore of Texas, waterspouts and tornadoes.

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: wannabes [Re: danielw]
      #74022 - Mon Oct 16 2006 02:49 AM

Man, oh man, y'all. (Had to throw in the "y'all" because I am posting from Texas, here).

Staying fairly close to topic, because we are discussing "wannabes" at the moment ...

If we/I didn't know any better -- and if the wind flow was not so stubbornly from the S/SSE still -- this "pseudo tropical" feature here would all but pass for a TS any day.

Check out this representative buoy, for starters.

Another very TS-like quality (again, stressing that this is *not* a tropical cyclone, but so much like one in effect) .. check out all these rapid-fire severe thunderstorm with tornado potential/tornado warnings (this list is not even counting the plethora of warnings for waterspouts offshore).

Tell you what -- with this activity, if I see a few Northerly wind reports here overnight I would not bat an eye.


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: wannabes [Re: cieldumort]
      #74023 - Mon Oct 16 2006 05:10 AM

System appears to be covering a much wider area now. As SPC has issued another Tornado watch . From Intracoastal City to Boothville,LA.
At this posting NWS Slidell,LA has 2 TOR warnings in effect for two parishes S of New Orleans.

SPC believes the storm helicities will increase near sunrise. Currently helicities are in the 100-200 m2s2 range and they are forecasting them to reach the 300 m2s2 range.
Plenty high enough for a non? tropical system. That 300 m2s2 is in/ near F3 Tornado range.

New Orleans/ Slidell Doppler wind profiler is indicating 35 kt winds at 1000ft above ground level. With max winds at 45kt, several 1000 feet above the ground.

If someone handed me the pics of the current Doppler sets I would certainly think that a tropical Low was nearby.

Buoy 42019 was reporting wind speeds near Tropical Storm force earlier. As was ShellOil's BRUTUS platform, located in Green Canyon. I believe the lat/ long was 27.1N/ 92.1W.

Also of note was the Mid Lake Ponchartrain Buoy. Tide was 2.88ft above sea level. Last I checked, and has been rising most of the evening.


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