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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
nine is it? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74060 - Tue Oct 24 2006 06:51 PM

we may have just registered the slowest season since the el nino-crushed year of 1997. since isaac petered out at the beginning of the month a regime of intense shear has kept anything from developing, and it is showing no sign of letting up. hurricane paul recently flashed to life in the eastpac, but is being torn asunder and is unlikely to landfall as a significant tropical cyclone. unseasonably cool weather is starting to dominate the eastern u.s.--it's hard to picture a tropical cyclone getting up here now. a freeze tonight should end the growing season here and over much of the inland southeast. not to say another tropical system is impossible, but it hasn't looked this dead in october for quite some time. a year ago today we were watching Wilma on it's way across florida and out into the atlantic, with six more named storms to go and the season finale still more than two months away... this year we're three weeks after the last forgettable fishspinner and doubting anything else.
early predictions for this season were all high. when it comes time to tally the season forecasts we should get the opposite of 2005; i.e., i don't think anybody went as low as the low-average numbers we got. the lack of a hurricane hitting the united states (unless Ernesto's borderline landfall on september 1 gets the nudge) is something we haven't seen in a number of years. the atlantic really is variable... it can look like the western pacific at times with swarms of storms coming for months on end, or spit out less than half a dozen tropical cyclones weeks apart over a couple of months and retire until the next season. we got something much closer to the middle this go around, but after last year it looked about as dead as ever.
HF 2251z24october


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
12N 47W? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74063 - Wed Oct 25 2006 03:43 PM

See some turning, Chances are low, but it's the best looking wave I've seen in a long time. Shear is relatively low and has a good 36 hours before shear will start really jumping up. Modest convection is firing, and the sea temps are warm, so if it can hang together... (probability of a depression in 36 hours.... 10 percent, after that it'll probably get torn apart by shear if it's not together by then).

The wave/trough at 16N 57W is being torn apart by upper level winds.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74068 - Wed Oct 25 2006 11:30 PM

Quote:

See some turning.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: ltpat228]
      #74070 - Thu Oct 26 2006 06:20 PM

Good afternoon,

Just checking global models this afternoon and some of them seem to be showing some development in the western caribbean in the next couple of days .

Here is the MM5 @ 120hrs



Here is the NOGAPS @ 144hrs



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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74071 - Thu Oct 26 2006 08:32 PM

Well the quet moment may be going away for a bit. GFS shows a low next to Florida in 144 hours that may develop, NOGAPS has been trying to develop something in the western Carribean and now I believe they might of hit the hot spot. A disturbance that really just popped out is looking very well organized to at least call it an area of investigation. Also lets not forget the wave east of the Islands.. That should have been called 93L for a day now.. The NHC is deff. slacking off this month. This wave may not have much convection buty it has a good circular motion and it deff stands alone and has a cirlcle look to it. Just because a cold front is to the north really doesnt mean they shouldnt put a area of investigation on it. Though better possiblities for this new blow up I believe...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: allan]
      #74072 - Thu Oct 26 2006 10:09 PM

93L is now up for system East of the Winward Is.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: stormchazer]
      #74073 - Fri Oct 27 2006 02:12 AM

Hi Gang,
I've been tied up in a lot of things over the last few months...So I haven't been active in posting, but have seen your messages on the forum. 93L is definately looking more interesting. The rotation is there, and the convection seems to be trying. I haven't been able to look at the models tonight, but from a freeze frame standpoint, this storm may not face any significant shear until reaching the Central Carribean. The fromt that gave HF a freeze/frost earlier in the week and the beautiful wx here in Florida seems to be washing out and for the first time in a while, shear is low in the Carribean and east of the Leewards. Hmmm. Down the road, it does look like the next front will pass through Florida, but maybe will not make it as far as I'm not seeing the same type of temp drops in the forecast as I saw with the last front earlier in the week. The temp shifts are significantly less, so I don't think the next system will drop as far south into the Carribean. This one may make a go...in the Leewards and or Eastern Carribean. Otherwise, it is darn tough to speculate on anything else.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: allan]
      #74074 - Fri Oct 27 2006 03:16 AM

I'm liking that tiny southern GOM/Yucatan Channel blob a little bit as well, but it still appears to be very limited to the mid-levels, for the most part.

93 could have easily been invest tagged a while ago, but looking at the history of uphill battles against shear this year, I suppose the thinking would be on "why put up an Invest tag for three hours" Well, 93 has certainly proven that train of thought wrong. Occasionally congealing a bit, with some good flare-ups, and already with a crystal clear broad lower level circulation, it doesn't seem like it *should* take much to become a TD - except just that this is 2006


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74075 - Fri Oct 27 2006 01:23 PM

Well, the cold front died out, which has, for the short term, given the wave a chance to continue and potentially develop. In some ways the sucker looks worse, and in others, better. So I'm going to give it a 25% chance to develop in the next 36 hours. I'm a strong believer that a system, once developed, tends to survive shear that would otherwise prevent a system from developing in the first place (we've seen it before time and time again so I suppose that's not a big shock). So, how much longer does the system have before the window closes? I'm eyeballing about 36 hours of lowish shear, with another 36 hours of low-moderate, there's nothing out there to totally ruin the system. at least not for a few days. But can it concentrate the convection and get going? Certainly the water temprature is warm enough. So, worth watching.

- Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 12N 47W? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74076 - Fri Oct 27 2006 01:58 PM

48 hours of Favorable shear from what I saw on some blogs from wunderground. I was watching this wave for 3 days now. Finally named it an invest area and I believe we may actually have a TD by tommorrow if things continue the way they are. Theres been some models doing an Ernesto track with this storm. They actually have it surviving in the Carribean which is very typical for storms this time of year. Remember Michele, Lilly, and of course Wilma. So we may actually be doing some tracking on what could be number 10?


Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Oct 27 2006 06:39 PM)


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