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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74107 - Thu Nov 02 2006 10:33 AM

Alas, we've got two negative factors at play now. One, the trough over the US and associated subtropical jet is diving into the region a bit faster than I expected it to do so. Second, the low pressure feature associated with the wave is moving onshore over the Yucatan right now. Couple those two together, and I don't think things are looking good for it right now.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Clark]
      #74108 - Thu Nov 02 2006 11:26 AM

Even if it does not develop into a "tropical system" What is the potential for clashing air masses to produce destructive winds and rain. The systems "look" like a train wreck in progress

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Thu Nov 02 2006 11:30 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #74109 - Thu Nov 02 2006 12:14 PM

That system down there off the coast of Belize should be a TD...surface obs about 60miles from the center have winds around 25-30mph and a bouy has winds near the center in excess of 35kt.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: scottsvb]
      #74112 - Thu Nov 02 2006 07:59 PM

My interest in this feature 93L is definately peaking here from a meteorology terminology viewpoint...So anything input wise...to calrify my thoughts would be x-cellent! First, I will build my "case" if you will, please bear with me.

Here is the exerpt from the 7:05 PM tropical weather discussion that addresses this feature:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDS S THROUGH EL SALVADOR INTO THE EPAC. IT APPEARS AS IF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE SLOW
MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED IN THE EPAC WATERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 89W-93W.
THE 1800 AND 2100 UTC MAPS REFLECT THIS. THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
REMAINS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 17N88W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

Now, Please reference the 18Z Surface Analysis that coincides with this discussion. Notice it makes reference to the 1009 Low off Belize as a developing Gale:
Link to Map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

Okay, so here is the confusion:
1.) A Gale is a low pressure system over open waters with winds of 28 Kts (32 mph) to 55 Kts (62 mph).
2.) Technically, a tropical depression or weak/moderate tropical storm is considered a Gale over the waters of the tropics...This system is a closed low of 1009 MB over tropical waters in a warm core environment.
3.) At this point, I understand that the convection is pretty minimal, but I have seen more made of less in the tropics. That goes for systems in sheared environments too.

The system is in a tropical environment, it's technically being observed as a Gale, it's over open water, and it has an opportunity to have develop better converction tonight during the diurnal phase. While it's being respected as a Gale center, it's being said that tropical development is not expected. In some ways, i think you can understand my thoughts that these are very contradictory comments being issued here...According to my understanding, it's reality that this is at least a tropical depression from a technical standpoint. However, a decision has been made to not call it that. A little clarification would be appreciated by me...and might be "good for the order" as well.

Edited by dem05 (Thu Nov 02 2006 08:00 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74113 - Thu Nov 02 2006 09:11 PM

ok now convective is getting bigger and really wrapping around the center.. I dunno about you guys but I'm gonna call this Tropical Deppression 10! NHC probably still won't name it because it's so close to land but guys look at this.. Its a TD at least a TD.. Tropical Deppression 10 (in my beliefs at least)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74114 - Thu Nov 02 2006 09:21 PM

dem05... some good questions you have there indeed. Hopefully Ed or another Met will stop by and shed some light on this one. My only best guess is that the system is running out of real estate and climo stats along with the input of the forecaster(s) is the reason for no classification... if it is going to happen it had better do it now otherwise the window is pretty much closed...

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74115 - Thu Nov 02 2006 09:48 PM

My guess is that it is solely the organized convection part of the definition that is leading to this system not being classified right now. (From the TC FAQ: "A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation.") Of course, it looks like the convection is organizing a bit better now this evening, particularly near the center -- so the NHC's hand may be forced. Until now, they've had a point. Now? I'm not so sure of that, but we'll see what they say here soon.

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Clark]
      #74116 - Thu Nov 02 2006 10:19 PM

Thanks for the help on that one Clark.... and a bit of the 10:30pm TWO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #74117 - Fri Nov 03 2006 03:53 AM

93L Is indeed getting a little more organized overnight tonight - would seem that the cold front is aiding and abetting some, not to mention giving it a shove back over open water. With these new twists, I would certainly not write-off tropical cyclogenesis within the the next 48 hours, or so, as long as it stays over water and if the upper-levels don't kick it's you know what.

I realize that most everyone who is most active on here is most concerned about the Gulf and/or EC, and with good reason, not to mention that I suspect most everyone on here lives there, too. But you know, the real story of the past few days hasn't been 93L at all. It's been an unnamed subtropical storm west of Oregon (91C), and I'm not playing with any words when I refer to it as a STS, either. Amazing ET to STS transition, very reminiscent of the unnamed hurricane of 1991, as well as Vince, Epsilon & company.

Well, 91C is now sheared-out, for the most part. (One can't expect much more at 42 NORTH in the Eastern Pacific!) It will be very interesting to see what 93 does, now that it might have been given a second chance at life care of our front.


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL 28.66N 81.40W
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74119 - Fri Nov 03 2006 07:40 PM

Looks like it will be eating a lot of wind shear if it moves north of the Yucatan.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html


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