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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm??
      #74495 - Fri May 04 2007 04:16 AM

NOGAPS and other models predict either a sub-tropical or a pure tropical storm (maybe hurricane) developing in a few days in the Bahamas. This is interesting, I look at the NOGAPS and it shows it getting near hurricane strength, then dies out when it gets to Florida. GFS has it going to Bermuda and becoming extra-tropical. CMC model has it heading to the Carolinas as a strong TS, and the UKMET was the one who started it all, has it going to NY probably as a weak extra-tropical storm but hitting the Carolines as a strong TS or minimal Hurricane (according to the lowest pressure). May not even be tropical.. May just be a strong potent low off the Florida coastline.. still something to watch.
Heres the link to the very interesting NOGAPS
http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml#120

Now here's the link to all the models that show this interesting scenario..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I really don't know what to say about it, I know its not all going to be a cold core storm. It's gonna be an interesting weekend. Feedback will be great!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Fri May 04 2007 06:50 AM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm?? [Re: allan]
      #74496 - Fri May 04 2007 10:41 AM

I think that looks pretty far-fetched to me....but what do I know. Looks like it is bringing the low from our 'back-door' cold front southeastward to develop off the east coast. Don't remember when I have seen that happen, especially at this time of the year. I just don't see what is going to kick that area back southward far enough for this scenario to come true. GFS and CMC look more believable as I could see something forming farther east and north, but it would be wild to get something as close to Fla as the NOGAPS is showing at this point in the year. We will have to wait and see.....none of the NWS discussions are mentioning anything yet (wouldn't expect them to based on one model run). Have to watch those today and tomorrow. If something DOES happen, thanks for the heads-up!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm?? [Re: allan]
      #74498 - Fri May 04 2007 01:06 PM

Only the CMC shows it making a true transition to warm core, but it looks more like a warm-core seculision then tropical development. That or it will be a very shallow tropical system since upper level shear inst too favorable. The GFS looks to have a similar scenario, except the low tracks off the SE US and then develops. The NOGAPS flirts with sub-tropical, but it will more likely(and hopefully) be a rain maker for us in FL.

The major thing for all of this is SST in that area arent even 80F yet - and I wouldnt expect Epsilons or Zetas to spart popping up yet.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm?? [Re: Myles]
      #74499 - Fri May 04 2007 02:45 PM

Have had some time today to search for any other info on this.....found the following on the CPC Hazard Assessment page from Thursday next week to Monday the next.

"Of interest during this time frame is the development of a low pressure system off of the Carolina coast. Some models bring it closer to shore than others, but it will likely remain out to sea."

Local discussions are igoring it altogether at this point...here is long term from Tampa NWS....Miami has posted long-term outlet for today yet....

".LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXITS
THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD MORNING BUILDS AND SHIFT
DOWN INTO THE SE U.S. AND THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...DOMINATING
THE CWFA WITH STABLE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RUNNING AROUND NORMAL."

Will watch this closely this weekend!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm?? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74500 - Fri May 04 2007 04:05 PM

The afternoon discussion from the Wakefield (SE Va) discussion makes mention of it:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY STALLING AND DEEPENING OF
THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESP FOR PSBL MARINE IMPACTS ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDS...A GRADUAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPS THRU NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST. PCPN CHCS
LOOK MINIMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
PREVALENT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITIOR THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM FOR LOCAL
IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND PCPN.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: allan]
      #74502 - Fri May 04 2007 06:35 PM

Quote:

check out what the globals are showing today...
that upper cutoff that most of them were punching northeast and well away from the coast is now shown by most to retrograde and loop cyclonically off the georgia/carolina coast for most of next week. most of them have it getting down to around 1000 mb. there probably isn't enough cold air aloft for it to hybridize, and SSTs this time of year are nothing to write home about. the same feature in june would almost definitely become a tropical cyclone. just the same, should be a decent coastal low whaling away at the southeast coast next week. good blustery northeast flow in the southeast coastal plain might get the wildfires running around again, too...
HF 2305z04may




We had a thread started on this potential storm in the "The Tropics today" forum under NOGAPS - Florida Tropical Storm?. Seems the NOGAPS has it developing rather close to the FLA east coast. I was wondering where the impetus for that retrograde motion would come from.....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74504 - Fri May 04 2007 08:27 PM

ok, well I saw the new NAM model and it "looks" like it has it becoming sub-tropical in nature and headed to me which we really need the rain here lol. I really don't know what to say about this because at this point, anything can happen. People are saying shear is high and tempuratures are low but from what I saw on the maps earlier, the shear is not THAT high and the water temps are around the upper 70s maybe at some times reaching 80. I can see this become Andrea but a very small chance at that. This weekend is sure gonna be interesting. One of the forecast discussions say that if it gains alot fo convection, then it would be watched for a possible sub-tropical storm. Something that i will be monitering.
btw.. if you have new information on the storm off the coastline, that would be great!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Fri May 04 2007 08:28 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: allan]
      #74510 - Sat May 05 2007 09:14 AM

The newest long term outlook here in Tampa is placing the low off the Carolinas. Here is the info

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEK.

THis would NOT be good for Florida as it would pull down even drier air into an already parched region. Brush fires are getting to be a widespread and common occurance.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74512 - Sat May 05 2007 03:20 PM

The models are agreeing a bit more on this situation. Looks like NOGAPS and UKMET both want to bring it very close or over the FLA east coast. This would bring us here in central FLA the best chance of much needed rain. Other models keep it off shore and to the north east to varying degrees. Those would be the GFS and CMC.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74513 - Sat May 05 2007 04:44 PM Attachment (296 downloads)

the NAM is going crazy yet.. they have been very good thus far with storms, the NAM shows our first hurricane of the season!
Pressure at 988 MLB. which would be a category 1 Hurricane.
The GFS still shows a weak cut off low
The CMC stills shows some tropical formation.. most likely sub-tropical.
UKMET shows a strong storm but not really tropical
NOGAPS, somewhat warm but mainly a strong coastal storm
We'll have to see what the models show late tonight and tommorrow. Invest 90L could be appearing tommorrow or Monday, Andrea Monday or Tuesday??

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: coastal cutoff low [Re: allan]
      #74515 - Sat May 05 2007 08:34 PM

I have yet to see a model cause a hurricane and it would be rare indeed to see any tropical development due to atmospheric conditions this early in the year. At "best", I would see a bit of a disturbance form over water and move slowly probably being picked up in a zonal flow then dissipate or be absorbed into frontal activity. It could get windy in the SE US but I simply don't see a Tropical storm. I just don't think the Atlantic is yet warm enough to support any kind of tropical development.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: allan]
      #74545 - Mon May 07 2007 10:22 AM

Maybe after viewing this loop on May 7th,some may want to up there numbers. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Notice the rotation on the last few frames.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast [Re: allan]
      #74705 - Wed May 09 2007 09:46 PM

The gulf is not warm enough to support anything.

Yet.


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