Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Bertha Tropical Storm Bertha Declared. Watches & Warnings up For Islands. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 28 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3203 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
13.0N 57.0W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical?
      #74537 - Mon May 07 2007 07:10 AM

May 8th, 10:15AM update
The NHC has released a special statement on the hybrid (warm/cold core) low area, and the NRL is now tracking the system as 90L.

May 8, 9:30 AM Update
The not-tropcal low pressure off the southeastern US coastline is looking a bit more subtropical this morning, with scattered (oddly so) convection closer to the center. So it will likely wind up being a judgment call at the Hurricane Center to determine if this system gets named or not. There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow to check it out if it maintains this.

What's going against this low being subtropical is the dry air surrounding the low, and the fact that it has been weakening (or transitioning). It should continue to weaken as it approaches the mainland. Much of the windspeed decrease is more due to the high pressure moving away and the pressure gradient relaxing, however.

It should be slowly weakening as it moves west and south, as it does so the winds will continue to cause issues along the shore and for the fire outbreaks in Florida and Georgia.



Original Article
A few people have been talking about it, but there is a Nor'easter (Cold core, frontal, extratropical low pressure) system that has developed off the coast of North Carolina, combined with an adjacent High Pressure, is causing rather gusty winds across the southeast and Florida.

This system is currently projected to move south and eventually near north Florida near Jacksonville on Wednesday. Some models project it moving back northeast and disappate it , and some have it going into Florida.
As this is not a true tropical system, you won't see charts or graphs, but since it's fairly close to Hurricane season it is worth a mention. People along the coast will feel the winds from the system and the gradient with the high pressure even more.

There is a small chance it may pick up tropical or subtropical characteristics as it goes southward. One of the things that is keeping that from happening is the fact that there is a stationary front along with the storm, although it has become more cut off since this morning. This system isn't likely to do all that much and if it were to get into Florida it would probably fall apart very quickly, but it is still something to watch even as an non-tropical system as things could change.



More to come as needed.

A "wiki" has been integrated into the site, some pages are now modifiable (some only by registered users). The Links , General Info , CFHC">About , Site_usage_tips have been converted. If you have something to add or correct on those pages,, please do so! You can even create new ones for more detail. More integration will be added shortly.

Coastal Storm (90L) Event Related Links
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L

Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

More on the Links page


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74538 - Mon May 07 2007 07:59 AM

There was mention in this mornings TWD that the system may lose its frontal characteristics, and there is some suggestion it is seperating from the frontal zone to its NE as it moves SSW. However, this mention has disappeared from the latest TWD.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdrianInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Indialantic, FL
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74539 - Mon May 07 2007 08:23 AM

We got a pretty good sustained wind (25-30 mph) begining last night around 10PM and continuing on through this morning after the front moved through yesterday.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74540 - Mon May 07 2007 08:30 AM

Dvorak T Number ST 2.5/2.5 Should see model runs on this system later today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Seems to be doing very good considering it's over 69 degree water

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: HCW]
      #74542 - Mon May 07 2007 09:03 AM

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
WELL ADVERTISED STORM FORCE SYSTEM DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA WITH
ESTIMATED 998 MB SFC LOW...4 MB DEEPER THEN THE 6 HR FCST OF
THE GFS...NEAR 33.5N73W. BUOY 41001 E OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTING
36 FT SEAS ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CUTTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH 31N71W TO THE E-CENTRAL FL
COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AND IS USHERING IN GALES OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH GALES HAVE YET TO REACH BUOY
41010. SHORT TERM FCST OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL HANDLING THE
ONSET OF THE HIGHER SEAS BETTER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE
NWW3 AND WILL GO WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IN THE FCST. AS FOR
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM NWP MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS WITH
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW WSWWD ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC INTO E-CENTRAL FL BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE NAM/CMC/GFS TURN
THE SYSTEM NNWWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER SUITE OF MODELS WHICH ESSENTIALLY MOVES THE
SYSTEM ALONG 31N AND THEREFORE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS 30M AND NAM 975 MB
WINDS SUGGESTS STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRUSH THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE
WWD MOVING LOW. BASED ON THIS WILL GO WITH A STORM WARNING FOR
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG GALE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N W OF 74W. WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE TUE AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SE COAST. SLY GALES
CONTINUE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA INTO WED AS WELL THEN SUBSIDE
THU INTO FRI. LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
ALL BETS ARE OFF SHOULD THE LOW TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 133
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #74543 - Mon May 07 2007 09:34 AM

In New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona, branches have fallen overnight and the wind gusts are still strong. Don't these storms have *any* sense of shame, giving us a foretaste of what is to come almost one month early?!

Oh boy - I sure hope that this early storm (even not a tropical one) will not set a tone for the rest of this summer

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdrianInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Indialantic, FL
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74544 - Mon May 07 2007 10:22 AM

It would just about figure, hurricane shutters installed on the new condo last month, not looking forward to trying them out so soon.
Anyway, this should prove to be an interesting one to follow when it hits the gulfstream.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 250
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74546 - Mon May 07 2007 11:01 AM

Quote:

Anyway, this should prove to be an interesting one to follow when it hits the gulfstream.




Water Temps jump up several degrees in that area and, of course, as it moves to the southwest, the water warms quite a bit as well. You east-coasters are in for a rough couple of days!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: HCW]
      #74547 - Mon May 07 2007 11:32 AM

The imagery on the loops is incredible.

So, I am trying to understand the parameters better.

Really winding up, really moving towards Florida.

Thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: LoisCane]
      #74548 - Mon May 07 2007 12:07 PM

Really impressive circulation, given the conditions. This may not bode well for the rest of the season.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 133
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: LoisCane]
      #74549 - Mon May 07 2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

The imagery on the loops is incredible.




which loop? could you please post a link? thanks.

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 250
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Is there a chance it could become a subtropical? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74550 - Mon May 07 2007 12:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The imagery on the loops is incredible.




which loop? could you please post a link? thanks.




The one I think they are talking about is this:

Tropical Floater 1 (NHC)

This is the GOES floater satellite loop. YOu can find it at the National Hurricane Center website...click 'satellite' then scroll down to the different satellite data links. This storm is on Floater 1. Good Luck!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: NewWatcher]
      #74551 - Mon May 07 2007 01:38 PM

Bouy 41001 info indicates a spike in pressure lowering intensity a bit. I guess this may be typical of this type of subtropical storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74552 - Mon May 07 2007 01:53 PM

Your mention of the Gulf Stream prompted me to research where the GS starts or ends (depending on how you look at it).
It was interesting to me that this system is near an area called the Charleston Bump. This is an area that appears to turn the current Easterly. There is a counterclockwise rotation in that area. Any ideas or theories anyone?

http://www.oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/03bump/background/geology/media/charlestongyre.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74553 - Mon May 07 2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Bouy 41001 info indicates a spike in pressure lowering intensity a bit. I guess this may be typical of this type of subtropical storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001




Actually the system should be moving away from the buoy. The low is drifting to the SW, maybe a little more west now of south...(rapid scan floater is on the system) If you go back and look at the history at the buoy, see that winds got up to 54kts at midnight (gust to 70kts) and about the same time as the lowest pressure reading... 29.64. but as the system moves away... would see the pressure rise and winds relax. Just kinda crazy to see 40ft sea's that close to the SE at this time of the year!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon May 07 2007 01:58 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74554 - Mon May 07 2007 02:12 PM

Good point. Too bad we can't see data from Bouy 41002.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74555 - Mon May 07 2007 02:23 PM

yeah, 41002 went adrift back in Feb. Don't know when it will return, but bet it will be before June 1st!
This Water Vapor imagery is very nice. Look at the all that dry air and that flow around the system, don't get to see this to often.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 250
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: cyclone_head]
      #74556 - Mon May 07 2007 02:30 PM

Quote:

Good point. Too bad we can't see data from Bouy 41002.




That WOULD be nice...wonder when that one gets replaced...anyhow, looking at the water temp data from a few of these buoys in the direction that the storm seems to be heading....
41001 - east of Cape Hatteras - 67.1
51025 - due west of 41001 near shore - 64.4
41036 - southwest along coast near Wilmington- 68.0
41013 - southwest on coast near Myrtle Beach - 68.7
41004 - near coast of Charleston - 69.4
41008 - just east of Savannah - 70.5
41012 - just east of Jacksonville - 73.0
41010 - about 200m east of Cape Canaveral - 75.0
41009 - just off of Cape Canaveral - 75.2
looks like the water may cool just slightly as it moves sw, then will warm up quite a bit if it continues to the south or sw......gotta look at the model runs before my 7th period class gets here:-)

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: Nor'Easter Storm near North Carolina Headed Towards Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74557 - Mon May 07 2007 02:32 PM

Quote:

yeah, 41002 went adrift back in Feb. Don't know when it will return, but bet it will be before June 1st!
This Water Vapor imagery is very nice. Look at the all that dry air and that flow around the system, don't get to see this to often.




Wow - that water vapor is awesome!

I wonder if all that dry air will wrap up and choke it off?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
two loops [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74558 - Mon May 07 2007 03:21 PM

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

So many great loops to choose from ... really wrapped up.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 24110

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center