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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Whats the GFS up to now?
      #74780 - Sun May 13 2007 08:54 AM

Interesting stuff from the GFS this morning but cant be taken to seriously as its very long-range and will probably change in the next run.But one thing to make note the GFS has indeed been indicateing some kind of development in the caribbean for a while now and basically taken it north.Overall the time of year is fast approaching so we'll see what happens.

348hrs...



360hrs...



384hrs...



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
worth raised eyebrows.. [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74790 - Mon May 14 2007 03:42 AM

Thanks, worth raised eyebrows. Now I suppose the thing to do would be to actually watch what's going on and see the correlation if any. Thanks.. This might be Florida's year of any which way you can get hit. Then again, maybe not.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: LoisCane]
      #74792 - Mon May 14 2007 08:44 PM

This is todays Forecast Discussion for the next 4 days.
To eliminate confusion with Hurricane29's post for the 300 + hours forecast.

Excerpt from the Monday Afternoon Model Discussion.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID MAY 14/1200 UTC THRU MAY 18/0000 UTC
(May 14/ 8AM EDT Thru May 17/ 8PM EDT~danielw)

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/FRONTAL WAVE INT THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
THE GFS HAS TRENDED A DAY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE NAM/CANADIAN DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...NEW TO THIS RUN FOR THE NAM...AND KEEPS IT STATIONARY.
THE ECMWF/UKMET DO NOT HAVE THIS SYSTEM...
(edited~danielw)

POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
THE CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST WITH THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ALOFT...WITH THE
GFS/NCEP ENSMEAN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD...AND THE ECMWF/UKMET THE SLOWEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION. THE CANADIAN IS TRENDING SLOWER TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL PREFER A SOLUTION NO FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THURSDAY.

THE CANADIAN/NAM/GFS TRY TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE THURSDAY ALONG AN EASTERLY WAVE FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE extratropical CYCLONE THAT EVOLVED INTO ANDREA.
THE GFS HAS BEGUN PUTTING OFF THE FORMATION OF THIS CYCLONE...NOT A GOOD SIGN. WHILE MANY OF THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS HAVE IT...THEY USE THE SAME PHYSICS AS THE GFS...WHICH SUBJECTIVELY HAS BEEN NOTED TO HAVE A BIAS GREATER THAN ONE CONCERNING TROPICAL LOWS. THE CANADIAN AND NAM HAVE AN
EVEN HIGHER BIAS CONCERNING TROPICAL LOWS. CLIMATOLOGY IS ALSO NOT ON ITS SIDE...AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HURRICANE SEASONS ON RECORD WITH TWO RECOGNIZED TROPICAL AND/OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MAY. WILL CONSIDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW A VERY LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.
(edited~danielw)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2007 09:07 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #74793 - Mon May 14 2007 08:55 PM

Excerpt from the Caribbean Forecast Discussion.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

ALONG THIS AXIS...UNDER MID LEVEL FORCING...
THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 48-60 HRS...WHICH IT THEN SHOWS LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BY 72-84
HRS. THE ECMWF COMPLETELY DIVERGE FROM THIS SOLUTION...INSTEAD SUSTAINING AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH. EVALUATION OF THE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES...AS AN INDICATOR OF THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION... SHOWS AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-WESTERN AFRICA...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/CARIBBEAN OR MEXICO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS MODEL MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED CYCLONE...AND THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE UNDER THE CURRENT DYNAMICS.
(edited~danielw)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #74794 - Mon May 14 2007 09:10 PM

NAM @84hrs...



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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74797 - Tue May 15 2007 08:41 AM

EAST...
CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE
SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY
TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN
SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF
THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND
OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF
FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN
SEABOARD.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #74798 - Tue May 15 2007 09:53 AM

"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

..AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HURRICANE SEASONS ON RECORD WITH TWO RECOGNIZED TROPICAL AND/OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN MAY. WILL CONSIDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW A VERY LOW PROBABILITY..."

Not that I expect anything to develop, but the rationale is lousy - and inaccurate. HPC needs to leave tropical stuff to TPC - in 1887, two tropical storms were in progress at the same time in May.
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74799 - Tue May 15 2007 10:05 AM

I would agree with Ed that this is very poor reasoning for why something can or cannot happen in meteorology. Up until 3 years ago, no place had three hurricanes pass over it in a single season, and until 2 seasons ago we had never run out of letters for storm names. In the recent 'climate' of weather records and trends being broken, there is much precedent FOR these type of 'never before' events. Those of you with better access and knowledge of these advanced models please keep us informed! As a side note, I can only find GFS runs out to about 140 hours. Where is the link for out to 360 hours?

Long Range Model Runs

Just a reminder to others that at periods beyond 5 days, model accuracy deteriorates rapidly.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 15 2007 10:28 AM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74801 - Tue May 15 2007 11:51 AM

Quote:

I would agree with Ed that this is very poor reasoning for why something can or cannot happen in meteorology. Up until 3 years ago, no place had three hurricanes pass over it in a single season, and until 2 seasons ago we had never run out of letters for storm names. In the recent 'climate' of weather records and trends being broken, there is much precedent FOR these type of 'never before' events.




And before 2004, it was unheard of for 3 destructive storms to hit the FL peninsula within the space of 6 weeks.

AND, down here in our area (Charlotte County) I can't count the number of times "old timers" said that there was no way Charley would hit us because storms "never" hit us in our area.

For them to say it can't happen because it's never happened before is just plain irresponsible on their part. There is a huge difference between improbable and impossible. Nothing is impossible. Especially when talking about weather.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74804 - Tue May 15 2007 12:30 PM

it is just early yet, right there where u found the GFS it will run out to 360 when the model is finished

HERE http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

also:

FRONTAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
SINCE BOTH 06/12Z NAM SOLNS ARE FASTER W/ THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE EAST ON DAYS 2-3...BOTH ARE FASTER TO TAKE AN
INCIPIENT FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHWEST ATL NORTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z RUN HAS
TRENDED FARTHER WEST AND THUS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EITHER THE
00/06Z NAM SOLNS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE 12Z RUN IS A BIT STRONGER
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE MORE ROBUST CLOSED
LOW EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON DAY 3.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Edited by NewWatcher (Tue May 15 2007 12:37 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: NewWatcher]
      #74805 - Tue May 15 2007 12:35 PM

The site I use is the following, and the GFS only runs out for 168 hours no matter how I run it. Are you using a different access URL? or a different site altogether?

Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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angeldeville
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Florida
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74808 - Tue May 15 2007 01:36 PM

i'm pretty new to this (to say the least) but how do i know which run is the newest? sorry if that's a dumb question

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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: angeldeville]
      #74809 - Tue May 15 2007 04:07 PM

Here's a great link that will answer your question:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: FLGuy]
      #74810 - Tue May 15 2007 04:12 PM

It appears to me after seeing the latest GFS that it is not impossible for a low level circulation to cross the western Cuba area and over south Florida exiting off into the Western Atlantic and then ramping up a bit around the NW Bahamas. Then heading north to NE more west of what was previously thought. Could become a headache for the eastern seaboard.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THE GFS NOW
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 36-48
HRS...WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
BY 60-72 HRS. THIS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST THAN ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NAM...UKMET AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE FROM THIS
SOLUTION...AS THEY DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 60
HRS. THE EUROPEANS-NAM SOLUTION SEEMS MORE COHERENT...AS THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF.

Edited by FLGuy (Tue May 15 2007 04:14 PM)


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74812 - Tue May 15 2007 11:01 PM

Here's the link I use for 384 hours, Just change the hour in the URL for the up to hour runs 00, 06,12 or 18

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/ten_s_loop.shtml


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: FLGuy]
      #74814 - Wed May 16 2007 07:36 AM

But do we have any corresponding satellite data showing anything developing? 36-48 hours isn't that far away, so we should see something on satellite that it's extrapolating from, shouldn't we? And I say that because I'm not an expert and I'm looking to see what's on the satellite that the models are seeing that will generate.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Wed May 16 2007 07:47 AM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: madmumbler]
      #74815 - Wed May 16 2007 08:10 AM

Interestingly enough Floater 1 is on what they are calling Invest
which is centered on Cuba, South Fla, and the Bahamas
right in the area the GFS says something is to happen......

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: NewWatcher]
      #74816 - Wed May 16 2007 08:41 AM

I just noticed that floater! This is getting more interesting by the hour.
GFS is still on the Carib low.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: FLGuy]
      #74817 - Wed May 16 2007 08:51 AM

SOME CONCERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OVER THE WRN
ATLC/NRN BAHAMAS ON FRI...THOUGH THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS
RETREATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ITS PREVIOUS 8-11FT/25-30KT SOLUTION.
WITH NUMEROUS OTHER MODELS INDICATING THE LOW DEVELOPING...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH...THOUGH THE SECONDARY LOW OVER CUBA GENERATED BY
THE GFS ~00Z FRI SHOWS CLASSIC SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WILL
CAP WINDS/SEAS AT MINIMAL SCA LVL SAT/SUN BEFORE DROPPING THEM BACK
SLOWLY AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN ATLC OFF THE MID
ATLC/SE COAST.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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FLGuy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: South Florida
Re: NW Caribbean Sea Forecast [Re: NewWatcher]
      #74818 - Wed May 16 2007 09:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW OUT OF THE CARIB TRACKING ACROSS
CUBA ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING JUST AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LIFTING ACROSS CUBA
AND THEN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO IS
EXAGGERATED AT LEAST...




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

MULTIPLE SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RESOLVED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW N OF THE BAHAMA BANK BY 12Z FRI THAT PULLS UP THE ERN SEABOARD
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.


Ask three different forecasters and you will get three different forecasts!


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