Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 131 (Nicholas) , Major: 147 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1201 (Michael) Major: 1201 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2007 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74775 - Sat May 12 2007 05:00 PM

2007 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The weak to moderate El Niño event that rapidly developed during August to October 2006 has now dissipated. Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. The observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2006 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, the conditions appear to reflect more conditions of the two very active seasons of 2004-2005.

Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.

No. of Hurricanes 10
No. of Named Storms 19
No. of Hurricane Days 37
No. of Named Storm Days 89
Intense Hurricanes 5
Intense Hurricane Days 13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 194


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74820 - Wed May 16 2007 10:04 AM

14/6/3

Even though the SST's are warm, la nina is going to disrupt things and I just can't see a major explosion over the 06' numbers. Florida is dry as heck, and my corns aren't bothering me. It's going to be a weak one


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74847 - Wed May 16 2007 11:43 PM

Cyclones including TDs & STDs: 18
Named storms: 15
Hurricanes: 9
Major: 5

Let's see how badly I choke this year!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74848 - Wed May 16 2007 11:48 PM

As I mentioned above.."However, please limit your posts in this thread to your forecast and your rationale for the forecast (if any). " In this particular thread please don't question someone else's rationale.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74896 - Fri May 18 2007 03:58 PM

including subtropical type storms, 16/7/4


Jeff

--------------------
cheers


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: The 2007 Outlook [Re: Lysis]
      #74948 - Tue May 22 2007 06:08 PM

You know, everyone has their forecast set one or two deviations from the guy above them. Since we are all pulling these pretty much out of our hats, I will amend my forecast to something more drastic:

20/10/7

later

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue May 22 2007 06:08 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 39682

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center