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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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camille
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
GFS Models forecast
      #75768 - Mon Jul 09 2007 03:55 PM

So far things are quiet in the Atlantic Basin. None of the computers models are forecasting any development over the coming week. On July 17 the GFS shows a tropical wave forming in the eastern Carribean moving up through Puerto Rico into the Bahamas and moving into Florida. Tell me your prediction including factors(wind shear, instability, SST).

Also around July 22 they show a strong tropical wave moving off Africa. What do you predict the future of the storm.

Since this post asks questions based on a long range model output, it was moved to a more appropriate Forum. It is worth noting that nobody can predict, with even a slight degree of accuracy, what a particular wave will do a week or more in advance. When the forecast is based on a long-range model, there is no guarantee that any wave will actually be where the model predicts it to be, i.e., even the genesis of the wave by the model is speculation.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 09 2007 04:55 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: GFS Models forecast [Re: camille]
      #75772 - Mon Jul 09 2007 07:29 PM

I looked at 168hrs and didn't see anything. Anyways it's the GFS. Should I say more. BUT. It probably is showing that the tropics will be more conducive for development around mid month. For the GFS to be even close 168 hrs out is like saying I'll win next Saturday's lotto. Which I will

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camille
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: GFS Models forecast [Re: camille]
      #75773 - Mon Jul 09 2007 09:53 PM

Post deleted - see the edit to your original post)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 09 2007 11:56 PM)


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