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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Invest 98L consolidating. Models turning bullish.
      #75939 - Sun Jul 29 2007 04:34 AM



GFDL and GFS are now solidly on-board in calling for development sooner than later.

Pressures in the area are not that low, but we also have data scarcity.. almost really a data void... right where 98L is situated.

This system has the "right look," and environmental conditions have gone from not-hostile, to now rather favorable, for further development. Baring a falling apart, an invest flight is already scheduled for this afternoon.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 98L consolidating. Models turning bullish. [Re: cieldumort]
      #75941 - Sun Jul 29 2007 08:36 AM

Yeah noticed that last night. All the models seem to want to develop it.

So is recon going in or not? More worried on other things later but this is a good sooner thing so..

watching, also watching the high

pressures in miami have been lower than they have been and wondering a lot on the high lately with regard to models short term and long term

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 98L consolidating. Models turning bullish. [Re: LoisCane]
      #75946 - Sun Jul 29 2007 01:30 PM

98L LIMA

Shaped like a "lima" bean? Part of the larger "pod"?
A contraction I am unaware of, or perhaps just a slip of the proverbial ol' MeteoFrued.

Recon for today has been canceled.


Whatever the real nature of the fruit, it appears that the weak surface low center which has been trying to close off is now a good bit west of the mid level circ, which has been shunted off to the east of the surface low from the stronger than ideal mid to upper winds there. Late last night it appeared that these winds may have been relaxing some, allowing at least part of the region pop out something more of a lentil shape.

It would seem that even if an officiated subtropical or tropical cyclone does not form within the next one or two days, Bermuda will still see some inclement weather, with soaking rains and perhaps some gusty winds, so that the results will be similar, although perhaps not as intense.


Speaking of surface pressures, et al., it does look as if the entire basin is trending along with climatology, more or less.


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