allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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from the looks of the "latest" visible on the navy site, Dean has probably just made Hurricane strength.. I believe at 5 p.m. we will be tracking our first Hurricane of the season.. also note the trough in the Bahamas, looks a bit strong, could bump Dean a bit north as some of the models are predicting. Very interesting, I think as the storm intensifies today, it may move more north of the track as I preidcted earlier.. Still far out there folks, can't really predict if it's going to be a GOM or East Coast storm if it hasn't even reached the islands yet. We'll see what Dean does during the next few days. we are looking at a good rapid intesification if it is a Hurricane at 5 p.m. today.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I agree with twizted sizter - how can these systems possibly get close together? Erin is about a day from landfall and will quickly break up over the higher elevations. Dean is still over a week from Erin's position - in fact, places Dean's 5-day position near Jamaica.
About the only way that Erin could affect dean is if it weakens the high pressure system developing over the central US that is going to cut Dean off from an east coast hit and help force it into the gulf. But that high pressure is dropping down from Canada, and the 12Z shows Erin's remnants no where close to the high pressure system, so it is unlikely affect it much at all.
Further, tropical systems in close proximity disrupt each other, not strengthen each other, so your premise is false.
As for satellite imagery sources: SSD, GHCC, , etc. Take your pick. Each is better at different things. SSD is the easiest to use and has multiple color overlays enabling better understanding of the system. GHCC has longer term and fully customizable animations. has microwave imagery and multiple satellites. There are other sources too, but these three tend to be the most useful.
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Clark
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Quote:
About the only way that Erin could affect dean is if it weakens the high pressure system developing over the central US that is going to cut Dean off from an east coast hit and help force it into the gulf.
Well, it could also help to strengthen that high pressure ridge (due to the warming at upper levels from its convective outflow), resulting in impacts on the pattern further to the east. It's kinda like the case of a recurving system leaving behind a weakness to cause other systems to recurve days later, except the reverse scenario. Granted, in this case, it's likely to be a very small impact -- but probably still a noticeable one.
(Edit -- on retrospect, I see that this also helps answer the question posted by "tumbleman" in the second post in this thread. If they would like more info on this, please reply and explain.)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by Clark (Wed Aug 15 2007 08:42 PM)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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On the left side of your screen is a column with quick links to the other forums here as well as forecast maps from the you can click on for the latest forecast maps fromthe . You will see that Erin is forecasted to be inland tomorrow morning. Dean will still be way out in the Atlantic. Erin is not forecasted to stall in the Gulf for a week so the possibility of her & Dean meeting up is less than zero...no attitude just trying to clarify the misinformation you heard & repeated.
I myself would be interested...maybe others too...in seeing the videos of the newscasts you said you had of that scenario playing out. If you click on the forum link I mentioned to the left you will see that the one intitled Forecast Lounge would be appropriate for that & even the Comedy Lounge.
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NativePensacola
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Dean has taken a little jog north of west in the last few satellite frames. Wobbles are normal, but how far will it wobble and how much will this affect the track? It has already almost jumped up close to 13N, which it was supposed to not reach till 52W according to the official track. This storm seems to have everyone guessing.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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The TMI Satellite (see ) recently made an overpass of Dean. Impressive core showing up on microwave (85GHz). I would agree: expect a hurricane either next update or at 11pm.
Tracks seem to be converging, with both the 12Z and sending it strait toward the Yucatan.
One thing to remember on the models: they base the track on the levels of the atmosphere the system is currently in. As the system deepens, it begins to be affected by higher altitude steering currents. At present, we are too far out to see what they will do when Dean enters the Gulf, but it is something to keep in mind.
CMISS steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Satellite imagery of Dean certainly looks quite impressive. He is a very small storm, as the say TS winds only go out to 50 miles. However, he looks to be getting strongerwith a well defined feature, and hints that an eye may appear shortly. The banding features have improved in the lower levels too. Dean has certainly taken advantage of the improving upper-level conditions, and warming SST's, and could easily strengthen more than the official forecasts suggest.
Erin is also taking advantage of improving conditions,and will probably continue to strengthen up until landfall. My guess would be near 60 mph as a peak intensity. Deep convection is firing over the centre, and banding is improving too. Conditions will now begin to deteriorate across the lower Texas coast as Erin strengthens and approaches.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Dean isnt going to show a eye shortly. Maybe in 24-36 hrs. I would throw out the model as it initializes Dean too weak and doesnt get a handle on him until 60W and its only 13N (where its almost at now).
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h2ocean
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Check out the below model runs....they added the Herbert boxes to the map - cool!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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If it is a hurricane by the 11 PM advisory tonight, which is possible considering the latest microwave pass shows an impressive building eyewall (see ), I wonder how the models will be affected. A stronger storm would take a more northerly path, no?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Random Chaos
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Right now, no, it would stay on the westward track.
Take a look at the steering currents for hurricane strength (cat 1 only): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
There isn't a northward movement of the steering currents for several days, so I don't think that speed on making hurricane will affect motion that much.
More likely to have affect as it enters the Caribbean, as that is when it will be near the northward steering currents. By then it should be stronger, probably need to reference the 400-850mb or 300-850mb steering current graphics. The gap that exists for stronger storms doesn't exist for a TS, and the models are using the TS strength system right now. We might very well have a chance at recurvature that the models aren't picking up on, depending on how fast that high from Canada can close the gap.
Only thing is we are still too far out. Those are "what it is now" graphics, and not "what it will be in 3 days." We just need to watch and see right now, and as the system deepens, the models will take the new pressure into account when determining track.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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a stronger storm wont matter from a 50mph system to a cat 4... just matters on how strong of a ridge is to its N.
When there is a weak LLC it will be dominated by the LLF and usually go with that.
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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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I think the convection is blowing up and causing an illusion. It's gonna be a hurricane within the next few forecasts, and it will grow much larger in size.
no, it's not wishcasting....I'm watching the water vapor loop....
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OUSHAWN
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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New advisory for Erin says that the center may be reforming further north under the main convection and watches/warnings will probably need to extended northward to include the Houston/Galveston area. That has been my thinking all along.
Shawn
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Is Dean moving West or WNW. Or has it relocated farther north. On the Floater it sure is not moving straight West anymore. :?:
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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It looks like Dean is not on a jog right now and is actually heading slightly further north of the predicted track at the moment.
Hopefully, it returns to a more westerly path later.
Time Sensitive Image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Allison
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Quote:
New advisory for Erin says that the center may be reforming further north under the main convection and watches/warnings will probably need to extended northward to include the Houston/Galveston area. That has been my thinking all along.
All the more reason why it's so important for us not to focus on the single line track.... (just like the mets have been telling us for ages!) 
This is especially true since, as appears to be the case with Erin, areas north of the center (i.e., Houston, Beaumont) may see most of the rain.
When I see an image like this --
-- I try hard to put aside the idea of tracking a LLC center and instead just see a storm headed toward the Texas coast.... For me at least, it helps put it in perspective. 
ETA: Sorry about the file size guys... I thought the image would appear smaller in the actual post.... 
Edited by Allison (Wed Aug 15 2007 06:54 PM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Erin is really starting to look sickly. She's looking elongated and looks like the center of circulation is going one way and the rest of the system wants to go another. Then again, I could just be seeing things.
Shawn
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lawgator
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I always like to look at the visual image of a storm rather than the IR loop when deciding whether a storm is making a "jog." The center is usually a little more definitive, at least in the early going, on the visual for me. At any rate, here's the visual loop on Dean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
If you click and check the box for the "trop frcst pts" you can see the forecast points plotted on top of the line the storm seems to be taking. If you do that with Dean, it does appear he is a tad bit north of the projected path, but only IF you draw it in a straight line to the next plotted point. And its a small "jog" at that.
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twizted sizter
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Dean does appear to be further N than forecasted. Based on the visible he appears to be approaching 13N shortly..something based on the 11 a.m. advisory he wasn't to do until tomorrow. I've looked several times but will admit it is hard to tell without a well defined obvious eye.Based on that personal short falling of mine I question whether it's more of a legit movement or just the appearance of one based on his improving organization.
Thankfully recon is scheduled tomorrow & will give us a better understanding of his structure, enviroment, & thus a better idea of his destination. Although I believe that info won't be processed into the models until Fri mornings run.
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