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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 314 (Nate) , Major: 332 (Maria) Florida - Any: 341 (Irma) Major: 341 (Irma)
51.9N 20.0W
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Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
Ene at 35 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Claudette Stalls
      #7703 - Sun Jul 13 2003 04:05 PM

I was tempted to title this article 'Claudette STILL Undecided! What an interesting, and educational, storm she has been (and still is). The last couple of recon vortex messages suggest a southward drift, while the last few visible satellite images hint at an eastward drift of the again exposed low level center. Possibly a cyclonic loop...or the start of a change in direction...or perhaps the center has become quasi-stationary, as Mike will often remind us, 'time will tell'.

While most of us tend to concentrate on the Visible and/or IR imagery, the Water Vapor loop paints quite a different picture:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Dry air has entrained into the system from the west and southwest and it has again decreased the convection to the north and east of the center. The envelope of dry sinking air has now made it all the way south to the Texas/Mexico border near Brownsville. Shearing on minor flareups well to the west southwest of the system suggest that the wind shear remains in place. Along the north Gulf coast, healthy upper level westerlies are in place...and to the east there are hints that the Atlantic ridge may be retrograding and lifting a bit more northward.

The main feature however is a stationary upper level high pressure system located in the BOC off the west coast of the Yucatan. This high is the prime cause for the west southwesterly shear over Claudette and it shows no signs of movement or decline. For the moment, Claudette is trapped in the middle of all these factors. If she can survive the shear and the dry air (and so far she's done a good job of that) she may keep us wondering for yet a few more days.
ED

Hurricane City is doing a live audio Broadcast tonight 14-Jul 8pm till about 11pm


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by CFHC (Mon Jul 14 2003 09:03 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Claudette Stalls
      #7704 - Sun Jul 13 2003 04:08 PM

I am eating crow no more until further notice

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Suserm7306
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Stalls
      #7706 - Sun Jul 13 2003 04:59 PM

What are the chances now of Claudette turning back towards Florida? It looks as thoug she is more Eastthen West.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Claudette Stalls
      #7707 - Sun Jul 13 2003 05:34 PM

Well, I tossed that situation to someone who " knows" and they feel it his highly unlikely while keeping in mind that in the end, anything is possible. I have felt the west track to MX is highly unlikely, but anything is possible. It's on my mind but will have to wait and see.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Claudette Stalls
      #7708 - Sun Jul 13 2003 05:38 PM

it would seem that the longer it stalls the more north the models would move. that has been the trend when she has slowed down. i would think the forecast track would be even more north if it is not moving at all.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
ANOTHER SYSTEM?????
      #7709 - Sun Jul 13 2003 06:17 PM

EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND MRF TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY...THEN INTO
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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storn
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Stalls
      #7710 - Sun Jul 13 2003 06:24 PM

vis/took/off/northest/do/you/see/that/team

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ANOTHER SYSTEM?????
      #7711 - Sun Jul 13 2003 06:41 PM

WXMAN where did that come from?

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: ANOTHER SYSTEM?????
      #7712 - Sun Jul 13 2003 06:45 PM

gonna be a busy summer...

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
On The Increase, AGAIN!!!!
      #7713 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:09 PM

Much of the afternoon the convection was on the decline and I thought she finally had given in this time to the shear. Just as I thought that, the activity is on the increase again close to the center. I think someone made the reference before of her being like "Rocky" and I think that is exactly right. How many times can she pull this off? The problem is, I'm STILL NOT sold on this LOWER TEXAS HIT.

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Young Droop
Unregistered




Re: On The Increase, AGAIN!!!!
      #7714 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:17 PM

Looks as though the center has jumped NE into the newest blow up of convection.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: On The Increase, AGAIN!!!!
      #7715 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:24 PM

last recon fix had the pressure back at 994 and 69kt flt lvl winds again. so... in those bursts there are probably winds just below hurricane strength. this as it is batted around by shear and subsidence, in a very limiting environment.
been model scanning again.. looks like the only safe haven from shear is going to be nudging towards the texas coast under the tail of the SW ridge.. downside there is it's the subsidence dumping ground for the ridge. 18Z GFS has the current features persisting (eg. eastern trough established and upper high to the south slowly shifting west). the shear connection btw these features finally realigns around 36-48hrs out.. at that point claudette is forecast to be near padre island. dependent on how assertive the storm is in generating outflow claudette could still possibly break the shearing pattern.. but this is doubtful.
anyhow, avn keeps insisting that a low will develop on the top end of that wave at 40w and curve up east of bermuda as a weak tropical system. i'm watching it.. but dont see that evolving very fast.
as far as the caribbean wave.. models arent that bullish on it. just have to see what it can do.
by the way, does anybody have a link to that MJO graphic? i could really use it.
HF 0024z14july


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Location
      #7716 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:24 PM

At 23Z, I'd put the center at 25.2N 92.4W. Convection is once again moving back toward the center.
ED


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
EYE???
      #7717 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:26 PM

I just looked at the latest IR and I know I've been glued to this monitor all day but I sure thought I saw what appears to be an "eye feature" that is now showing up right in the middle of that blow up of convection????

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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: EYE???
      #7718 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:35 PM

Movement nearly stationary. Center has also moved back under the CDO. This could mean some slight strengthening. How long this last is for anyone to decide, but given theres still SW shear, chances are this may not last long? Although the structure and center are more well defined then recent days.

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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: EYE???
      #7719 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:42 PM

For those of you who don't have Accuweather pro but want Joe B's take, I'll give you a few of his tidbits:

He thinks the storm will make landfall in the lower Rio Grande Valley as a Cat 1 or 2 between 36-72 hours. He thinks the biggest concern is the potential for devastating flooding. With the Mexican coastal mountains not that far inland and quickly up to 5-6k feet and a storm that will be moving in slowly, the rainfall will be torrential. In the long run, it should be beneficial for agriculture in Tex & Mex but by the middle of the week, it might be one of the top few stories in the world. Otherwise, the center is elipitical and that's why it seems to be rotating while stationary, though the convection continues to pull the eye in closer when it bursts. Eventually, it's going to wrap.

For HankFrank,

This is the only one I have, and it doesn't work as good as it used to:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html

MJO Graphic

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/index.html

Another (better?) MJO graphic.

ShawnS,

That's the highest cloud-tops but the center is clearly displaced a little to the SW of that blow up. You can see it on the late visibles (shadows). I have it at 25.2/94.23.

It's hot and breezy here today. I'm off to check Buoys. We got that one band in earlier, but it only amounted to a few drops of rain in my neighborhood. Still, it counts for down the road - rainfall from 2 of 3 named tropical systems.

Steve


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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered




Re: EYE???
      #7720 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:44 PM

Ooops. That's 92.43 West.

My bad. I couldn't edit cause I'm not logged in.

Steve


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: EYE???
      #7721 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:45 PM

I think I have been looking too long also. The last IR I checked looked drifting south. I know on the GEOS Floater a while ago it showed the circulation on it's side so much it was a great picture. I think this is the hardest hit yet for her. I see what you are saying HankFrank. I hold out for an all out strange turn of events, if not w/ "C" it may be next week!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: On The Increase, AGAIN!!!!
      #7722 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:55 PM

Just got a hold on a couple 79 at flt level.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: EYE???
      #7723 - Sun Jul 13 2003 07:56 PM

Actually the CDO has moved towards the center, not the center towards the CDO. No eye in this system... the clouds in the last couple of frames of the loop obsecure the once quite visible LLC.... with the clouds covering up the LLC, hard to tell movement, if any at all.... I'm still staying with my TX/MX forecast as a Cat 1 storm... but I sure wish she would get off her butt and get on with it... been a weird storm for sure... storms that become stationary are such a pain....

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