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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Happy Birthday MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
      #77732 - Sun Sep 02 2007 07:41 AM

11PM EDT 2 September 2007 Update
Felix maintains a 145kt, or 165mph wind. The pressure is being estimated by NHC to 930mb, or a 4mb drop. However, it should be noted that the recent mission was canceled mid-way through due to a scary run-in with a combination of hail and Extreme Turbulance. Extreme Turbulance is defined by NHC as inability to control the aircraft, which is extremely dangerous to crew and is thus quite understandable that the mission was prematurely cut short. The Central Dense Overcast has, in the last 1.5 hours, appeared to have warmed slightly and this may be an early indication of system structural changes.

Some other notables and statistics:
Located near 13.9N/73.9W
Movement is 280 degrees, or close to west-northwest at 18mph
The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Limon to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

More to come...

8PM EDT 2 September 2007 Update

Felix has become a Category 5 hurricane with 165mph winds....

Recon found a dramatic pressure drop, down to 934 mb. Ambient pressures are high, so with that it supports a rather high windspeed even at that pressure...



Recon found a flight level windspeed of roughly 163knots... Which puts surface winds (about 90%) at 165MPH.
It is heading still mostly west, and northwest. It apparently is still strengthening, Recon ran into enough turbulence and graupel (hail) to abort the mission after the last drop, which is rare event for the hurricane hunters. (I'm sure it's an interesting story -- a note from the Special discussion says, "A dropsonde released in the southwest quadrant landed in the northeast quadrant." -- lightning was also found in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Which is reserved normally for extremely rapid intensifying systems that still aren't done intensifying.)

This makes it the second category five hurricane in less than a month, and Felix's structure is still very good going over very high water temperatures.



The hurricane force winds are surprisingly narrow only extending about 25 miles from the center, so this is a tightly wound system miles from the center. It is likely to undergo some sort of eyewall replacement at some point, but when is in doubt. Conditions are about as perfect as they can get for the hurricane right now. Extremely high water temperatures, good air environment and outflow, and no sign of dry air intrusion.

More to come soon.


4:42PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix is now a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140MPH, pressure is down to 956, and conditions continue to be near optimal for continued strengthening. This has been an extremely rapid deepening of a system that was just a tropical depression about 38 hours ago.



3:25PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix continues to intensify at a rapid rate. Recent Recon has measure a 132kt flight level wind. 10% reduction from that level brings a little less than 120kts winds to the surface, or close to 135mph. It is likely that Felix is a Category 4 hurricane at this time, although awaiting official declaration. We will know soon enough! Another interesting observation reported in the Vortex Message is that the eye has evolved into a stadium structure, a characteristic reserved usually for intense tropical cyclones.


1:50PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm with winds of 125MPH and a pressure of 964mb. Recon is not finished flying through the system yet, but Felix appears to be currently in a full rapid strengthening mode, and about to enter even warmer water. It has definitely has the potential to be Felix the Cat 4 later tonight or tomorrow.

1:45PM 2 September 2007 Update
From reports from recon flight inside Felix, and Satellite estimates (Dvorak T Numbers of around 6.0 which equate to roughly 125-130MPH winds) , it appears Hurricane Felix is now a major hurricane, and strengthening quite rapidly at that. Pressures are down to roughly 964mb. The National Hurricane Center's 2PM Update should reflect major status.



11:30AM 2 September 2007 Update
Category 2 Hurricane Felix is still moving west northwest at around 18 miles per hour. It has strengthened a bit, and now an eye is visible on satellite imagery.

98L: is persisting, but not developing much today. We're still watching that.

A disturbance off the coast of Georgia is worth watching for development too, and could potentially become a tropical depression later it will need to be watched because of the close proximity to land. This system won't be moving all that much because steering currents are weak, and already is dumping lots of rain on parts of eastern Georgia and South Carolina.



From Tip:

The system off the Georgia coastline was originally triggered by a stalling frontal zone. Originally a baroclinic system altogether, this now appears to be entering a phase-transition because the air mass north to south through the axis of weak rotation is becoming less differentiable. This, while convection persists, needs to be monitored so long as we have a general southwest wind field beneath the axis of frontalysis and east-northeast wind above. That provides a nature cyclonic convergence.

Two key factors:

* Shear remains low in the deep layer analysis. Moreover, the upper level winds are somewhat divergent while being light in that area. This can be seen using
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html ..and clicking the radial button that states, HDW-High, which overlays the wind field on the image. There is no floater assigned to this feature but NHC has given it a mention in the 11am so perhaps an Invest is in the works. Given to some cyclonic presentation emerging a circulation is likely in the process of forming and an Invest would have more success at that time.

* Oceanic heat content; ample availability in the area as is suggested via:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/maps/sst/2007090200_sst_AB.png Additionally, we all know the Gulf Stream is in that area and that supplies an artery pumping rich fuel directly into any fledging system. Sometimes if there is an offshore component, cooler shelf water can upwell along the immediate Coast in that vicinity. That does not appear to be the case now as buoy data indicates temperatures ranging between 81 and almost 90F!

Whatever develops there is likely to move very slowly and be there for awhile. The larger scale synoptic evolution does not provide for very many steering signals. There is a ridge tending to develop surface and aloft, moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England states and into the NW Atlantic, from day-3 through day-6. That should help pin whatever is there in place, or perhaps even push it SE or SW. Some of the models actually do suggest that occurring, showing a slow but gradual development only drifting around in that area.

More discussion on the system off the Georgia coast can be found here.


Original Update
Felix is moving north of the Netherlands Antilles islands this morning, as a solid category 2 hurricane, it will likely strengthen some more as it moves away from the islands. Possibly quite a bit more as it appears the storm is in a very good position for strengthening.

The future track still suggests that Honduras may be dealing with a brush of this system later in the week, and all eyes from there,including Nicaragua, Belize, and the Yucatan of Mexico should keep a strong eye out. It does not look like Felix will have any United States impact, the ridge is strong, and there is nothing currently that could move it more northward.



98L is not looking as good today as it did yesterday, but the system could still develop later on as there is a circulation with it. If it survives the latest round of unfavorable conditions, it still has a chance to develop.

If you would like to take a guess at where Felix will go, and may not have exact reasoning for it, let us know here


Radar Loops
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Wimington, NC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Felix Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Felix - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Felix


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Felix (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Felix (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Felix

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Felix
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Felix -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L (East Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 11:21 PM)


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CoconutCandy
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Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #77733 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:00 AM Attachment (339 downloads)

Felix is definitely engaging in a major intensification cycle this morning.

A special 3:30am AST update from the NHC relayed that the Hurricane Hunters are now reporting sustained winds of 100 mph, ratcheting Felix up to Cat 2 status.

And, since the satellite has come out of eclipse last night, it appears that inner core convection is steadily expanding (and deepening), although most of the deepest convection is clearly confined to the eastern semi-circle. Not too sure why this is so, as the system is not experiencing any shear. Any ideas here, Mets? Morphological considerations?

But the lop-sided eyewall convection scenario is apparently not inhibiting steady strengthening, as Felix is now at solid Cat 2 strength, with no end in sight at this point.

Here's what the good folks at the NHC had to say about Felix's Surge in intensity, in their 5am advisory:

>> "FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION ... IN ADDITION, AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER LAYER OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT.

WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM OVERPASS."

And, since the time I wrote about the 'lop-sided' eyewall, just in that brief time the eyewall has undergone a dramatic rapid transformation and is now a complete eyewall again with a tight spiral and massively expanding eyewall convection in the NE semi-circle bursting forth. (See satellite IR link, below.) Hmmm ... A harbinger of further rapid intensification?? Any ideas here, Mets?

Beautiful is the splendid view of the 1km zoomed image of the first visible daylight satellite picture on NRL's website.

Please view the attachment, from the NRL website, to visually follow along with the narrative.

With the low sun angle, it shows well the developing dimple of the eye, like an inverted cone, as this 'inner eye cloudiness' is being evaporated by the ever-increasing warm temperatures, likely to reveal a clear eye within a few hours.

Also interesting, with the low sun angle, you can clearly see a partial ring of very deep thunderstorms in the eyewall's south quadrant, of what's known as 'convective turret penetrations', as the tops of these strong storms literally overshoot the tropopause, where the stratosphere begins. Only extremely strong thunderstorms can do that; most just 'flatten out' into the characteristic anvil-shape when they hit the tropopause. There are 100+ mph winds blowing below those storms, with even higher winds at "flight level".

Meanwhile, the radars from Venezuela, picking up the eyewall quite nicely, show the strongest reflectivity in the south quad, which correlates well with the visible satellite image of the eyewall. Is this interesting to anyone else?

The good news is that the official forecast track appears to have been adjusted slightly left, or southward again, apparently based on thinking that the ridge will remain intact and strong enough to continue to steer Felix generally west or west-northwest.

The bad news is that Felix is now expected to strengthen to at least 125 Kts., or 145 mph, before landfall, possibly in Belize, after grazing the tip of Honduras.

>> "ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN."

No repeat of Hurricane Mitch, thankfully. Although Felix *might* become as large and even as strong as Mitch, the subtropical ridge to its' north should keep the monster storm trucking right along at a steady clip. Mitch, as you may remember, moved to a position just north of Honduras, and then weak steering currents kept massive and powerful Mitch meandering for days in roughly the same area, unleashing torrential rains and causing massive mudslides and the tragic loss of thousands of lives. Felix will be severe, even catastrophic, where he makes landfall, but at least it'll be over in a day or less, if anything 'good' could be said about the otherwise bad news for those in the path of Felix's Fury!

Well, it's nearly 2am in Hawaii (8 am Florida) so I think I'll close here and turn it over to the 'day crew' to discuss Felix to your hearts' content. I've a feeling that I'll wake up to a Major Cat 3 Hurricane, by the time the sun rises again in Hawaii.

6 hour IR loop:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

6 hour Visible loop:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

(Remember to click 'Rock' and slow it down just a tad, for best results.)


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77739 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:26 AM

Felix is quite impressive this morning. This scenerio is beginning to remind me of Katrina-Rita ("the twin sisters"). First, t
here was Dean and now his twin brother Felix. Looks like there will be nothing to stop Felix from becoming a major hurricane.


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Ron Basso
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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #77742 - Sun Sep 02 2007 12:04 PM

The key to this 4 to 5 day forecast and I won't speculate beyond that is the strength of the 500 mb trough over the central states in 5 days. This mornings GFS had that trough a little stronger than yesterdays runs, all the way down from the northern plains to TX. This feature, as well as the actual forward motion of Felix, are the two key variables to this forecast. One run that bothered me, and I'm sure it was just an anomalous one, was the 06Z HWRF. This model this year was introduced as on par with the GFDL - we'll see after Felix. Anyway, it stalls the storm just east of Belize and then slowly tracks it north along the east coast of the Yucatan. If this storm slows considerably or stalls, in the NW caribbean, then we are in for some major changes with the future track. I don't think that is likely now but still a reasonable possibility. We have to remember that the models are not real good when troughs interact with ridges because the timing is so important to directional movement (i.e. Charley). I don't see a dramatic situation like Charley but again we need to see how sharp that 500 mb trough becomes on Sept 7th.

--------------------
RJB


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane [Re: Ron Basso]
      #77745 - Sun Sep 02 2007 12:23 PM

The models are pretty straight forward and such was the case with Dean...a turn wnw towards Belieze and south of Cozumel and into the BOC but with the ridge eroding over the NW gulf and begining to dominate or future threat off Florida in 2-3 days...a turn more NW toward Tampico and north to the TX -Mx boarder. Felix should become a Cat 3 tonight and possilby a 4 but not sure how much Dean still turned up some waters near Belieze. Note:98l should be a lessar concern compared to off Florida.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: MikeC]
      #77747 - Sun Sep 02 2007 12:54 PM

Wow, look on the visible satpic! I bet everything, that it´s a major hurricane! Let´s wait for the next recon flight. Should be a bad surprise!

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Raymond]
      #77748 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:03 PM

Extremely good IR presentation. The eye has become very well defined on both IR and Visible in the last couple hours. Recon is in the storm now and released a dropsonde about a half hour ago; we should get a vortex recon soon.

Modis overpass should be posted in about 3 hours (it will be from 17:45Z) on the rapidfire gallery. Might get a really good high res visible of the storm from that.

I expect a major hurricane at the 2pm update.

Edit: Recon just passed through the eyewall and found 122kt Flight Level winds (10-second average from HDOB data). Downshifted to surface (90%) brings it in at 126mph surface winds, or a strong Category 3 storm. We will see if NHC upgrades it soon.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 02 2007 01:39 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77750 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:49 PM

Agree with all that has been said with regards to Felix's organization. To conclude that Felix is now bombing and is a major hurricane is a foregone conclusion at this point. It's likely going to be largely a matter of internal structure, interactions with land, whether or not upwelling of any significance occurs, as to whether or not his first landfall is at 3, 4, or 5. To hope that interaction with the ULL to his NW will do the trick, while possible, is simply looking less and less possible. If anything, upper-level winds have become only all the more favorable for further strengthening. Indeed, the CIMSS automated Dvorak intensity estimate already has Felix running a CI of 5.4 based on the 3-hour average, but 6.6 raw.

Switching gears a bit, it's becoming hard to argue against the likelihood of an invest tag soon being hoisted on the low of non-tropical origins hugging the SE coast just off of Georgia, as it takes on more and more tropical characteristics, and appears to be breaking with the frontal umbilical cord.


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flhurricane
Unregistered




Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: cieldumort]
      #77751 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:51 PM

200 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND FELIX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Unregistered User]
      #77752 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM

Here's recon:

806
URNT12 KNHC 021746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/17:24:40Z
B. 13 deg 22 min N
070 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2777 m
D. 120 kt
E. 46 deg 010 nm
F. 138 deg 122 kt
G. 048 deg 013 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 8 C/ 3048 m
J. 16 C/ 3043 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
SFC CNTR 050/07 NM FROM FL CNTR

---

As per the non-tropical off Georgia, I sure hope the CMC is overblowing the system as usual!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: MikeC]
      #77753 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM

Folks, while we admire the eye-candy that Felix has become... A tid-bit to keep in mind.

Along the 75W range there is currently an antecedent (prior to Felix's arrival) region of somewhat anomalously high oceanic heat content. The following link nicely shows a region of approximately +2 sigma values and Felix is about to pass right over that with nearly ideal deep layer, non-inhibitory development parameters.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png

It is quite plausible that Felix is heading for upper category destiny and may do so with a bit of rapidity. This is currently in a rapid intensification phase -- it would appear. Though that is not an official call, it is imo.

Also, I have put together some comments regarding the area of disturbed weather just off the SE Coast. This can found over in the 2007 Storm Forum, if anyone is interested...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 02:12 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77756 - Sun Sep 02 2007 03:05 PM

eye-candy? lol... this is about a 8hr loop of Felix from sunrise til a tad just a bit ago... Just amazing to see how rapid he is growing... while on Hurricane force winds extend out to about 15 miles from center... it will expand over time... and i don't think its going to stop anytime soon. Like others have pointed... more favorable conditions are ahead. (sadly i think this has the potential to of becoming another record breaker/retired system at the end of the year)
16 Frames VIS

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77757 - Sun Sep 02 2007 03:19 PM

Ok, we have a new recon. Note the "stadium effect" comment:

301
URNT12 KNHC 021917
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/18:54:20Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
071 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 95 kt
E. 268 deg 008 nm
F. 356 deg 114 kt
G. 268 deg 007 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 8 C/ 3060 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12

N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT

AL06 2007

And here he is:

Click for Full Res version

Edit: moved image from NASA to my site so I don't abuse their bandwidth

==

Can anyone confirm my read of the eyewall dropsonde? Looks to me like it might be category 4 from the dropesonde. I don't have a decoding app, so I'm manually reading it and might be reading the wrong lines.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 02 2007 03:29 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 573
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77758 - Sun Sep 02 2007 03:38 PM

Quote:

Ok, we have a new recon. Note the "stadium effect" comment:


Can anyone confirm my read of the eyewall dropsonde? Looks to me like it might be category 4 from the dropesonde. I don't have a decoding app, so I'm manually reading it and might be reading the wrong lines.




Yes, I just placed an update on the Main Page...

132kts at 700mb level extrapolates to approximately 120kts at the surface, or close to 135mph doing the standard conversions. That is Category 4. I have/had to also mention that NHC has not formally declared this a Cat 4, but the numbers are real -- it is highly likely they will either mention this via an intermediate statement, or they will upgrade this officially at 5pm.


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


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Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77759 - Sun Sep 02 2007 03:42 PM

It Seems Felix has strenghthened to a Catagory Three Now

http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=GENERAL&fn=/2007/09/02/753646.html&cvqh=itn_felix

Looks like we may have another Dean?

We've gone beyond Category 3 with Felix as the new Recon fixes confirm.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 03:47 PM)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
what about the system off the Georgia coast? [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #77762 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:05 PM

Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Loc: Germany
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77763 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:11 PM

What does "stadium effect" mean?

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Climate Aficionado
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Raymond]
      #77764 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:13 PM

What does "stadium effect" mean?

Go watch the US open on TV. You'll get it.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 573
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #77765 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM

Quote:

Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!




It is far too early to assess any risks to specific areas... We do not even have an Invest on this, although that may take place before too much longer given to the fact that rotation is clearly discernable and where there is rotation, tends to be a circulation.

Models are all over the place and will not perform adequately until they really have something in their initializing.


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #77766 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM

Quote:

Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!




From my knowledge, and by looking off of the radar, there are a few area's in East Central Florida that should be on the look out for tornadoes, strong winds and severe thunderstorms. Whether this is caused from the storm system off of Georgia or not, that I do not know. You may want to ask someone who is more experienced in weather. The link below shows the areas that are experiencing bad weather caused from thunderstorms.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Also, this system is still forming off of Georgia, so give it a day or two and maybe people will know what to expect from this system. Watch it closely, and moniter it, and keep an eye on the forum. They will let you known when this area could cause potential harm.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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