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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Felix and More
      #77859 - Mon Sep 03 2007 11:11 AM

Update - Monday, 11:30PM EDT
Hurricane Felix on schedule for landfall in northern Nicaragua at about 12Z - probably as a borderline Cat III/IV hurricane. I suspect that the remnants of this small-core storm will die out in the high terrain of Guatemala.

Invest 98L no longer an item of interest - but it could begin to regenerate in a day or two in the central tropical Atlantic. Strong easterly shear (both surface and aloft) has dominated western Africa for about the last 3 or 4 weeks - don't expect anything out of that region until the environment changes.

A weak low pressure system continues to churn east of Florida - about 280 miles east northeast of Melbourne. The system has been slowly drifting to the east southeast over the past couple of days and it has been designated as Invest 99L. Wind shear is currently light (and so are the steering currents) but the shear is expected to increase above 29N by Wednesday.

Models are all over the place with this embryonic system. The UKMET and a couple of others have been consistent in slowly developing and moving this system in an anticyclonic loop - eventually bringing the system, as a tropical storm, across the Florida peninsula. Other models meander the system eastward in an erratic fashion, while still others take it off to the north or northeast - but into the teeth of some increasing shear. Although the system is not that far away, any movement will be slow - and development is far from certain at this time.

Invest 99L East of Florida

Here is a closeup IR view courtesy of MSFC:

MSFC View of Invest 99L

I think that we'll all keep a close eye on this one during the week.
ED

11:53 AM EDT Update 3 September 2007
Felix seems to be gaining a secondary eyewall, so reorganization or eyewall replacement may be starting once.the secondary eyewall has completely formed This process can take several hours to a day or so to complete.

Original Update
Hurricane Felix doesn't look as good on Satellite this morning as it appears to have bit of some dry air entering along the north or it's going through some reorganization now. It still remains a Category 5 Hurricane. Because of the current look I expect it to weaken a bit, still to a category 4 storm. Hopefully this would continue to weaken it more, but the dynamics around it will probably keep Felix a Category 4 or 5 system. The hurricane center is forecasting it to get a little stronger before landfall, in fact.

The current forecast track has moved a little south, now aiming for the border between Nicaragua and Honduras, that along with the rather fast forward motion of 21mph makes it necessary for both of those countries to issue Hurricane Warnings, which has been done.

Current model trends suggest that Felix may not make it into the Bay of Campeche, which will make it spin itself out, and get torn up over the mountains of the middle of Central America and Mexico.



The system off Georgia hasn't changed all that much, it's there, but pressures haven't lowered all that much. We'll continue to watch it.

98L Is holding together, and may still yet become a depression over the next few days.



More to come later...
Radio
Radio Belize
Love FM - Belize
Power FM - Honduras (Spanish)

Television:
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Webcams
Cocoa Resort, Roatan, Honduras (Island north of the coast of Honduras) - Dock Cam - (Flhurricane Recording of this Cam)
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Utila Lodge Dive Report - Utila, Honduras (North Coastline) - Dock Cam - (Flhurricane Recording of this Cam)
Radar Loops
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
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San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

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Felix Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Felix - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Felix


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Felix (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Felix (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Felix

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Felix
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Felix -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L (Area off Georgia) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L (East Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More [Re: MikeC]
      #77862 - Mon Sep 03 2007 12:28 PM

Well, recon is inbound. Last HDOB message was right at the rim of the outer convective area.

We also have a new SSMIS microwave overpass. There does appear to be about 33-50% of a 2nd eyewall forming, but it still has a long way to go before an ERC can start.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html


Edit:

I have overlaid the Recon track (data points) on Google Earth with a backdrop of current IR. Enjoy!



Anyone interested in the KMZ for SSTs, Spaghetti models, and satellite, I grabbed the main one from here: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/852603/an/0/page/1

Last, I think MikeC meant 11:53 AM update, not 1:53 AM

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 01:46 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77864 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM

Looks like it's weakened some, as seen on satellite.

Recon found:

116
URNT12 KNHC 031739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/17:23:00Z
B. 14 deg 14 min N
078 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2675 m
D. 118 kt
E. 005 deg 6 nm
F. 109 deg 114 kt
G. 014 deg 008 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3038 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. LLOSED WALL
M. C8

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z

Also note that the surface low of 953mb was located where there were 33kt winds (based on dropsonde data), so the actual pressure is probably lower.

EDIT:

Officially Category 4 at 2pm.

New microwave out - the core looks like it is undergoing complete reorganization - no sign of a well defined eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html

My guess is a combination of dry air entrainment and temporarily cooler (relatively) SSTs has resulted in the eye unable to sustain itself without an ERC, and as there was no 2ndary eyewall forming, it is going through an entire reorganization instead. I suspect in a few hours as it hits another very warm water zone will see it restrengthen and reform a well defined, possibly larger, eye.

You can see the heat potential here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00709030600.GIF

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 02:33 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77867 - Mon Sep 03 2007 03:30 PM

Ok, going to do a bit of analysis on the latest recon mission.

From the vortex data this thing looks like a borderline Category 2/3 with 96kt surface winds. Flight level readings from the HDOB maxed at about 102kt winds, though a 114kt occured in the N quad that didn't show up in the HDOB readings.

More interesting is the dropsonde. The eyewall dropsonde shows the wind speed at surface (112kt) stronger than at flight level (90kt), and if the 112kt surface reading hit the strongest spot in the eyewall, that would be pure luck. This would keep it a strong Category 3.

The eyewall is reported open, and from the HDOB readings the windfield has expanded. Temperature in the eye is 17C (dropsonde reported just over 18.2C) and in the eyewall it is 9C (dropsonde reported 10.2C). This makes a still strong 8C difference, but nothing close to what we saw last night.

With another hot eddy in front of it and still a ways to go for land, I would expect this reogranization phase to be over in a few more hours with a new eyewall developing and then shrinking. But first it has to finish mixing out the dry air it sucked in this morning.



Recon:

869
URNT12 KNHC 031919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/19:00:10Z
B. 14 deg 17 min N
078 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2678 m
D. 92 kt
E. 116 deg 6 nm
F. 216 deg 095 kt
G. 119 deg 007 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 9 C/ 3033 m
J. 17 C/ 3050 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C15

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 11
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z
MAX SFC WIND 96KT NW QUAD 19:02Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 315__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTR


Eyewall dropsonde (the decoder app I wrote and in need of testing: http://aewww.firstones.com/dropsonde_decoder.php5 ):

171
UZNT13 KNHC 031918
XXAA 53197 99142 70788 04448 99979 25429 15112 00687 ///// /////
92500 22800 16609 85235 19000 18101 70889 10200 20590 88999 77999
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 120 SPL 1430N07881W 1901 MBL WND 16112 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17103 979708 WL150 15121 078 =
XXBB 53198 99142 70788 04448 00979 25429 11974 24800 22850 19000
33723 12800 44703 12000 55697 08400
21212 00979 15112 11965 15626 22961 16117 33957 16116 44950 16104
55940 16608 66935 16615 77911 17099 88903 17602 99862 17595 11850
18101 22697 20589
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 120 SPL 1430N07881W 1901 MBL WND 16112 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17103 979708 WL150 15121 078 =

Eye dropsonde:

371
UZNT13 KNHC 031917
XXAA 53197 99143 70790 04449 99953 27606 16512 00933 ///// /////
92263 25200 18508 85005 22421 20503 70687 18458 02507 88999 77999
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1429N07897W 1903 MBL WND 18008 AEV 00000 DLM WND 20
503 953716 WL150 16509 075 =
XXBB 53198 99143 70790 04449 00953 27606 11878 22400 22850 22421
33767 18825 44744 19450 55713 19657 66696 18058
21212 00953 16512 11936 17507 22850 20503 33696 03507
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1429N07897W 1903 MBL WND 18008 AEV 00000 DLM WND 20
503 953716 WL150 16509 075 =



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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Re: Felix and More [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77868 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:03 PM

looks like the finger of green slowed Felix down.

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/hc_tmi_latest.gif

strengthening ahead followed by a (possibly brief) let up near landfall on Honduras.


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cieldumort
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Re: Felix and More [Re: MikeC]
      #77869 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:10 PM

Invest floater is now up on the disturbance off the southeast. (Link)

A couple of quick mentions regarding the two main systems of interest (Felix & likely soon to be 99L). Felix continues mostly westbound at too quickly a pace to feel whatever consequential tugs may have been imparted upon it by the upper low just now entering the pacific northwest. There is still some chance that it may begin to round the ridge which has been forcing it on this nearly due west path, but the window for this is closing fast. It becomes more and more likely with each couple of hours that it will follow course for a direct hit on mainland Nicaragua as a major hurricane.. with the question of whether it is a Cat 3,4, or 5 at landfall mostly having to do with internal structural fluctuations, which are common with all major hurricanes. At the current latitude Felix will not ride directly over the next tongue of more substantial TCHP, located about and north of 14.5N 80W. Also at its current latitude it would have to really begin moving with a greater northward component for it to miss a direct hit on Nicaragua, and ride the coasts of both Nicaragua and Honduras to cross over, say, Belize, or the Yucatan.

If Felix indeed does stay on this nearly due west path, it won't take long for it to have the bulk of its vorticity interrupted and moisture wrung out over the mountainous terrain of central America. Some of this moisture and perhaps the mid level vorticity may still eventually get caught up in the flow into Texas, on the heels of the current juicy inflow into the state from a Gulf of Mexico tropical wave & trough, as well as Henriette. Texas will probably remain under the influence of persistent low pressure through much of this week. (a low which almost has the look of a high pressure ridge on satellite, however is not high pressure, but rather a largely inverted trough )

If Felix does round the base of the ridge currently positioned to its north, then we may again have to start considering the potential for an eventual entry into the Bay of Campeche, but again, this becomes less and less likely with every hour Felix stays just on the south, or left, of official forecasts.

Getting back to the Invest - this is probably going to end up much more a concern for the CONUS . As several different model runs have also forecast, and many of us have already conjectured, a ridge may build in just to Invest's north, allowing him to fester long enough over anomalously warm Gulf Stream/nearby waters to fully transition into a tropical cyclone, and, to eventually and gradually get steered back north-northwest/northwest/ or west-northwest.. any pick of those three directions strongly suggests a landfall along the east coast.

The southwest may get "hit" by a much-weakened Henriette. The abundance of dry air out that way, even during the monsoon season, combined with often mountainous terrain, typically eats landfalling tropical cyclones out there for breakfast. It doesn't take long for them to fall to bits once crossing the Baja. Nonetheless, excessive rainfall, flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms, and some very gusty winds may be experienced this week in some very unusual places, such as Arizona, southern California, or New Mexico. And as mentioned above, much of Henriette's moisture is already enhancing the tropical downpours over much of Texas.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More [Re: cieldumort]
      #77870 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:16 PM

And our Felix, for people that want to see it in all it's high res glory!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A072461830

Note: Click on the "250m" on the left to get it to max resolution

---

Looks like a pinhole eye is opening up on IR. Need a microwave or recon to see if convection has rewrapped the whole core.


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HCW
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Re: Felix and More [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77871 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:32 PM

INVEST 99L is now up on the navy site for an area around 30.7 78.4 25kts off the east coast

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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ltpat228
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99L [Re: HCW]
      #77872 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:47 PM

INVEST 99L is now up on the navy site for an area around 30.7 78.4 25kts off the east coast.

And here is the link for a visual on 99L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Felix [Re: ltpat228]
      #77874 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:59 PM

Using the MODIS image as a base, I created a neat false color of Felix available here (please be kind to my site - I should have 5.2TBs/month of data transfer available, but I don't trust that number; seems WAY to high).

http://www.vorklift.com/temp/felix_false_color.png
(2.4 MBs)

Note: This is false color visible satellite.

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 05:22 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77876 - Mon Sep 03 2007 05:22 PM

Lower water temps or dry air caught up in the storm?

Really trying to understand this and I know the Invest is important as it can affect so many people reading this but really would like to know why Felix went from a 5 to a 3 so fast...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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flahurricane
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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: LoisCane]
      #77877 - Mon Sep 03 2007 05:30 PM

From what I understand and have seen watching storms is that it is hard for a hurricane to sustain itself once it reaches the strength that Felix did last night. Felix was also going over very warm water which helped in its intensification. This morning he sucked some dry air into the core which caused weakening. However it looks like Felix is starting to clear out the eye and the system is definitely growing in size.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: flahurricane]
      #77878 - Mon Sep 03 2007 05:54 PM

Okay, I go out of town for a long holiday weekend and come back to see what Felix is doing - a system which wasn't even a depression when I left for my trip, mind you, but which I expected to be named Felix that day - and find that the system has weakened substantially, with winds now down to 135mph. Wow.

Looking at the IR and water vapor imagery, it looks like Felix is toying with gaining strength, but not quite there.

P.S. I know it's a holiday, but where is everyone??


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 03 2007 08:01 PM)


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flahurricane
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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Hugh]
      #77879 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:17 PM

The last couple frames of the infrared loop seem to show a slightly more northward motion than we've seen over the last 12 hours. It's hard to tell if its a wobble or the eye clearing out.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: flahurricane]
      #77880 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:19 PM

Anyone have any links to models for 99L? There are none on NRL or the main page of this site.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #77881 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:34 PM

Just look a little further down the page Virginia

skeetobite has a page up http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=99

very timely ...

interesting track, if it tracks, if it forms

wondering if felix is slowing down a bit personally

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: flahurricane]
      #77882 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM

The due west motion has resumed... so I assume the northward jog that flahurricane mentioned, which I saw too earlier, was just the eye reforming itself.

LoisCane: Slowing down, how? Forward motion, or sustained winds? I don't detect a slowdown in forward motion... in looks like it is zooming onward, in fact.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 03 2007 08:50 PM)


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Lysis
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Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: LoisCane]
      #77883 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:55 PM

Compact storms such as felix are more sensitive to their enviornment, and therefore susceptible to rapid intensification, and weakening --both of which we have seen here.
135MPH is nothing to sneeze at, though, and the cyclone still has ample time to strengthen before landfall.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Mon Sep 03 2007 09:22 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Lysis]
      #77884 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:07 PM

The latest IR sure looks like an outer eyewall has formed and the inner one is disipating. Need 85ghz which should be along before too long.

Reference: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb.jpg (time sensitive)


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nicaragua
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Loc: corn island, nicaragua
Re: Felix and More [Re: MikeC]
      #77885 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM

IT SOUNDS LIKE THE TRACK IS HEADED WEST I HAVE LOST JAVA FOR SOME HOURS AND CANNOT
LOOK AT THE LOOPS, INTERNET IS IN AND OUT. AND SLOW TO GET ANY THING.WE ARE SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS ON CORN ISLAND NICARAGUA, BUT WE HAVE A PLANT THERE, CELL PHONES ARE NOT WORKING AT
THIS TIME, I DONĀ“T THINK IT WILL BE TO BAD HERE, BUT I AM NOT SURE ABOUT PUERTO CABEZAS ANY HELP WITH INFO WOULD BE GREAT.


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