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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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oil tracker
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Hugh]
      #77886 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:23 PM

Quote:

The due west motion has resumed... so I assume the northward jog that flahurricane mentioned, which I saw too earlier, was just the eye reforming itself.

LoisCane: Slowing down, how? Forward motion, or sustained winds? I don't detect a slowdown in forward motion... in looks like it is zooming onward, in fact.





I am still seeing more northward component motion in the last frames. Yesterday someone mentioned the ridge stalling just behind Florida and not further, allowing Felix to miss Nicaragua/Hondoras and indeed reaching BOC.

Ukmet solution plots that path with some bias to the north from the official NHC one.

I do appreciate some comments about how strong is the ridge from here. I am in Cancun México on vacation with my notebook in the beach following this forum in order to leave or to stay.


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Last night's recon abort [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77887 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:26 PM

I found it interesting to find out that the recon plane that had to abort the mission last night due to extreme turbulence was the same plane that was severely damaged in 1989 (Hugo)-5.6 G's to the aircraft.. in Felix's case, it was about 4 G's.

As for Felix, the storm looks elongated from top to bottom-but I think we'll have a mid Cat 4 @ landfall... still very powerful and dangerous.

98L seems close to dissipation-very little convection and the circulation is not very-discernible.

99L is more promising to develop at the moment, looks to me (not very experienced weather person though ) that it's trying to get going into a depression, although depression status (if it reaches that) is a couple days off.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 240
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: oil tracker]
      #77888 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:27 PM

Felix is pretty much right on the new NHC track - and is now better organized and strengthening.

As an aside, what's the chance that L98 & L99 merge?


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Last night's recon abort [Re: weather999]
      #77889 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:37 PM

Last couple frames of IR show a rapidly reforming central core. SSMIS microwave overpass just went over and we have a very well defined strong eyewall shown on microwave.

85GHz:
Latest SSMI 85ghz imagery
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

It appears that all the disruption we saw earlier today has gone and the storm is now strengthening again.

We should have a Hurricane Hunter in the storm sometime soon, but no data coming from it yet so I don't have a clue where it is, or even if it took off.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 04 2007 12:07 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #77890 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:50 PM

98 is gone from the NRL site.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Mon Sep 03 2007 10:02 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #77891 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:01 PM

99 and Felix are on the Navy site, 98 is gone. Also the link to Skeetobite's track for 99 is not in the main post, the only reference I see is to Felix and 98. Thanks Loiscane for the link.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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TheWXMan
Unregistered




Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #77892 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:09 PM

Yes, it appears as though 98L has gone to the dogs.

99L though is far more interesting, as several outlets are finally picking up on the chance of it forming and doing a turn similar to Jeanne of 2004. It will be interesting to see if it can form over the coming days.

South Fla. has information and several model run information on 99L, available here:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_99.gif

Cheers.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
felix in, 98 out, 99 in [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #77893 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM

felix's inner core is looking better this evening. it might tip back up to 5 before going in, probably a tad north of puerto cabezas. would be kinda unprecedented to have two category 5 hurricanes hit within a few hundred miles of each other two weeks apart. looking possible tonight, but there's still a chance felix will even weaken a tad more. in any case it's quite a hurricane, and is going to bang the place up pretty good.
don't like the terminal track... like dean this thing keeps leaning west of guidance. might keep plowing west and reform in the pacific or something like that; wouldn't surprise me.
98L lost it's surface trades push, sort of in a large deformation zone ahead of the next oncoming wave. that wave has nothing in the way of convection to speak of, but it killed 98L deader than a hammer. happens sometimes, and in this case prevented a storm. we haven't had the sort of wave-series this year that spawns one storm after another.. large sal breakouts, easterly shear, and an inconsistent wave pattern have kept the mdr fairly quiet so far this season. that doesn't take away from the fact that the two that made it through have both bottom out as cat fives.
99L is my big worry. it has my near and dear chunk of coastline in mind, i fear. there's still a rush of subsidence that might squash it tomorrow, but if that doesn't then it's just stuck out there mid week over hot waters, with steadily improving synoptic conditions and the ridge rebuilding over it. 12Z euro put it in about where i started thinking when i first saw the setup, though there's still a big spread from the models so far. still a lot of uncertainty, but if that sucker gets the ball rolling it can come up quick, and turn the later half of this week into a real bad one for people on the southeast coast. be vigilant.
HF 0214z04september


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #77894 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:20 PM

99L looks like its trying to get its act together. Most models want to develop this in the next few days. The models actually seem to be agreeing a lot more with each other now than earlier. The NGP, CMC, GFDL, and GFS show a a fairly decent system heading to New England in around 5-6 days.

The MM5fsu45a shows it being a weaker system and crossing the central Florida penisula in 4 days. However, this model shows Felix in the western GOM in 6 days.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in [Re: HanKFranK]
      #77895 - Mon Sep 03 2007 11:18 PM

Agree with all HF wrote regarding 99L. Might add that it's that time of year when these little rather benign-looking features (benign during other times of the year) can just go gangbusters in next to no time (recall Felix & Dean, most recently) and being so close to shore, 99 might be a rude awakening to those coastal residents still of the opinion that 2007, like in 2006, is somehow proof of a "return back to normal." It's fairly obvious that most people are not fully appreciative of the significance of both Dean & Felix, and our named count to date. Lots of still-unprepared folks out there right now.

Back to Felix - Felix appears to be intensifying a bit more tonight - should really be no real surprise - major hurricanes seldom maintain category 5 status for very long, usually falling back to 4, or 3, and often back up again, very often only due to internal structural changes, and nothing more. One has to hold their breath for something like a true classic, almost annular hurricane, such as 2005's absolutely incredible Hurricane Ioke was, to witness one that actually "breaks the rules."

It continues to appear most probable that Felix will make landfall as a Category 4, possibly a 5. The core of sustained hurricane-force winds within Felix only extend 30 miles or so out, and the winds of Felix, along this path, will weaken fairly quickly once inland.. except perhaps in the numerous higher elevations of Nicaragua/Honduras. So, structural damage along the sparsely-populated coast in this relatively narrow cone about the eye.. especially within the front and really right-front quadrant, will be blown to smithereens.. especially those not built with standing up to 140 mph winds in mind - how many are there?

During and/or after the initial EF3 tornado-like onslaught to this small section of the cost, some of these same areas will likely pick up some surge, but Felix is relatively small, has a very compact wind field, and the coastline is not appreciably at risk for surge, completely unlike the boot of Louisiana, for example.

Provided the continued west track verifies all the way to landfall, the greatest risk from Felix will probably occur when he is getting wrung out over the mountainous terrain of Central America, resulting in life-threatening flash floods. Fortunately, with his forward speed, something like an exact repeat of Mitch is unlikely... fortunately, again provided, forward speed continues and the remnant cyclone continues to shear to shreds and spread out over a wider area, rather than get held back, bunch up, and rain out over some mountainous terrain.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in [Re: cieldumort]
      #77896 - Mon Sep 03 2007 11:33 PM

As a reassurance to those in the gulf, looking at the steering currents, there's virtually no chance it will head into the gulf:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77897 - Tue Sep 04 2007 12:53 AM

Recon is about 200nm from the center of Hurricane Felix. That should be about 30- 45 minutes at 300mph.

Last sat shot prior to the eclipse indicated the lightning was decreasing.
However, this could be due to the eclipse obscuring Felix's signature.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77899 - Tue Sep 04 2007 01:08 AM

is 99L still a low that attached to a front or has it seperated yet? Oh and is it subtropical, a hybrid, or has yet to transition over to a warm core system?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77901 - Tue Sep 04 2007 01:59 AM

Looks like 938mb central pressure.

136kt at flight level and 143kts maximum wind.

edit:
URNT12 KNHC 040556 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 04/05:33:40Z
B. 14 deg 19 min N
081 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2580 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 125 deg 143 kt
G. 027 deg 009 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 18 C/ 3040 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1306A FELIX OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 143 KT NE QUAD 05:31:10 Z
CORRECTED FOR SLP


Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 04 2007 02:08 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77904 - Tue Sep 04 2007 02:16 AM

That recon data sounds about right, alright. Last couple of frames before eclipse showed consolidation of very cold tops in the eyewall, while the eye itself was clearing out smartly. Baring something unforeseen, our next few images which will be available for viewing, post-eclipse, leading up to and upon landfall might be pretty ugly. The silver lining remains the nuances of this cyclone which, unless it either a) suddenly slows way down and/or b) directly hits one of the very isolated population-dense locales, loss of life may still be far lower than might be expected in such a ferocious hurricane, as was the case with Dean, as well. Absolutely no guarantee of this, of course.

On the other side of the canal, Henriette continues to organize, and is likely to be declared a hurricane before dawn on the west coast. Her internals looked -really- good for a TC in that area. Models are now fairly tightly clustered on affecting the southwest with her remnants, perhaps even including some tropical storm-like conditions here or there.

I've been following some Felix coverage on Nicaraguan tele:
http://mediahopper.com/
(Scroll to the country you wish to view)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #77905 - Tue Sep 04 2007 02:28 AM

I was hoping that Felix would hit or extend an ERC. An ERC at landfall would spare some damage. Probably not much will be spared at 150 mph.

If there is any one good thing about Felix it will be the forward speed. The storm shouldn't linger over any one location very long.

However... the forward speed is also added to the wind speed in the right front quadrant. Roughly 150mph + 17 mph= 167mph wind damage swath at some point.

Those reading in the area of the Honduran/ Nicaraguan Border please go to a place of safety Now!
Higher ground away from rivers and mudslide areas is best if possible.
Hills and mountain residents be prepared for extremely heavy rainfall. Increasing the threat for mudslides and landslides.

Seek shelter now. Before the weather prevents going to a shelter.

SE ESPERA QUE FELIX PUEDA PRODUCIR DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA A
TRAVES DEL NORTE DE NICARAGUA Y GRAN PARTE DE HONDURAS...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS POSIBLES DE 20 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN
PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE
AMENAZAN VIDAS Y PROPIEDADES.

Huracan FELIX Aviso Publico

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 04 2007 02:31 AM)


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #77906 - Tue Sep 04 2007 02:36 AM

I recently traveled to Guatemala. And I saw in person where a mudslide had traveled down a mountain side and wiped out a village of 1,500 people
in 2005 after Hurricane Stan. I hope that they have improved their warning systems and that the people listen. Words cannot describe how terrible
it was to see what had happened there. Even though Felix is moving fast it has the potential to cause catastrophic damage in isolated areas from
flooding and mudslides.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Landfall [Re: charlottefl]
      #77907 - Tue Sep 04 2007 02:45 AM

It appears that the High thin cirrus outflow is improving to the north of Felix. This close to landfall, I'm not sure what that could change.
The outflow tells me that this storm is intact vertically. Outflow stretches from the SW tip of Cuba to the middle of Cuba. I'm estimating that to be about 6 degrees from Felix center. Better than a 350 mile radius. That's a big exhaust fan!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES06152007247ClSMXP.jpg

Enhanced IR of the above area

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 04 2007 02:48 AM)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #77908 - Tue Sep 04 2007 03:29 AM

What is concerning me about Felix is that although tourists on outlying islands seem to be airlifted out of the way, the poorest residents of the mainland area expected to bear the brunt of Felix are just told 'do your best to get out - we can't help'

From AP reports (news.yahoo.com)

Quote:

A storm surge of more than 18 feet above normal tides could devastate Indian communities along the Miskito Coast, a swampy, isolated region straddling the Honduras-Nicaragua border where thousands live in wooden shacks, get around on canoes and subsist on fish, beans, rice, cassava and plantains.

"There's nowhere to go here," said teacher Sodeida Rodriguez, 26, who was hunkering down in a concrete shelter.

The only path to safety is up rivers and across lakes that are too shallow for regular boats, but many lack gasoline for long journeys. Provincial health official Efrain Burgos said shelters were being prepared, and medicine and sanitation kits were being brought in, but that 18,000 people must find their own way to higher ground.

"We're asking the people who are on the coasts to find a way to safer areas, because we don't have the capability to transport so many people," he said. "The houses are made of wood. They're going to be completely swept away. They're not safe."




Another thing I noticed in the article is this ... and I was surprised more wasn't being made of it ...

Quote:

If Felix regains Category 5 winds before striking land, it would be the first time in recorded history that two such killer storms have made landfall in the same season, hurricane specialist Jamie Rhome said in Miami.




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