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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: TampaBayHurricaneChaser]
      #78041 - Fri Sep 07 2007 03:33 PM

Looks like something is trying to consolidate around 25n 87w. I'm also starting to see a slight spin to the convection

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #78042 - Fri Sep 07 2007 04:56 PM

The obs coming in thus far sure aren't anything to write home about. Would seem that a second center has attempted to form to the wsw of the original coc, under the fresh deep convection that has blown up on the west. May be a bit too unorganized this afternoon, just yet. A lot of the stronger winds found with scatterometer and ship reports look to have laxed from two days ago, less those which persist in response to the pressure gradient tightening from the high building in to 99s north.

Just a wee little bit longer tho, and we'll see what NHC wants to do with this one, at this time.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #78043 - Fri Sep 07 2007 05:08 PM

New NHC statement as of 5:05. Still not trop or subtrop, but could at any time.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #78044 - Fri Sep 07 2007 05:10 PM

Quote:

Just a wee little bit longer tho, and we'll see what NHC wants to do with this one, at this time.




Per the STDS issued just a few minutes ago, the plane will continue to investigate the system for awhile longer, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form *at any time*. The statement also says that tropical storm watches could be issued this evening.

I read this to mean that winds are sufficient for the system to be named Gabrielle, but that the aircraft has not been able to close off the low - yet, at least.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78045 - Fri Sep 07 2007 05:18 PM

Quote:

New NHC statement as of 5:05. Still not trop or subtrop, but could at any time.





000
WONT41 KNHC 072106
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: ltpat228]
      #78046 - Fri Sep 07 2007 05:44 PM

just read over the recon data.... looks like we are close to having a tropical system... if the convection can wrap around more from the west side... it might help the center close off some... the low swirl can be seen moving to the west on vis shots... the tropical wave in the GOM... needs to be watched too!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: Hugh]
      #78047 - Fri Sep 07 2007 05:47 PM

Eh. Just because the winds would support classification as a tropical storm does not mean that such winds are truly representative of the incipient cyclone. Nonetheless, it is purely a judgment call from the learned folks in Miami.

Recon has now just found surface winds of 35 knots out of the ESE at 30.4 N 70.5 W. With recon not yet finding a "well-defined" center of circulation, it seems more likely to me that there are two lows competing with each other just a little bit too much just yet to close either one of them off, but, "this could happen at any time," and we would likely have ourselves Gabrielle.. but possibly a bit more subtropical, initially at least, even if NHC goes with the "tropical" moniker.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #78048 - Fri Sep 07 2007 08:18 PM

Looking at the latest loops of both the Gulf and east coast systems... both look pretty non-tropical to me. The LLC in 99L is well south of the convection once again, it appears... so I don't think it'll form into Gabrielle "at any time"... tomorrow, possibly, but not tonight I don't believe anymore.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: Hugh]
      #78049 - Fri Sep 07 2007 08:28 PM

I think this next to last obs from the recent recon says it all:

URNT11 KNHC 080014
97779 23380 60296 72400 03100 02015 22//8 /0012
RMK AF308 02GGA INVEST OB 24
SFC WINDS NOT VISIBLE

Bill


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: BillD]
      #78050 - Fri Sep 07 2007 08:55 PM

Quote:

I think this next to last obs from the recent recon says it all:

URNT11 KNHC 080014
97779 23380 60296 72400 03100 02015 22//8 /0012
RMK AF308 02GGA INVEST OB 24
SFC WINDS NOT VISIBLE

Bill




I've never seen a recon report say that, I'll have to say.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: Hugh]
      #78051 - Fri Sep 07 2007 09:53 PM

Quote:

SFC WINDS NOT VISIBLE




Could have been anything. The sun was going down, as just one possibility.

NRL has just bumped 99 up to 40 knots, and a ship report recently came in at 00Z from a ship located at 32.40N 71.90W with a ENE wind of 45 knots.

99 is clearly a hybrid, and this should be of no surprise to anyone, given its entirely frontal beginnings. For now, the strongest winds are within a belt of tighter pressure gradients owing to the High to its north, and most likely within any thunderstorms within that belt.

With occasional flareups of deeper convection very near or just about over the primary LLC, it is most probable that when the learned folks at NHC say, "AND A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.," as they have, once again, in the 8PM TWD, they probably mean exactly that.


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #78054 - Fri Sep 07 2007 10:34 PM

Navy site is now 07L-Gabrielle

May have Gabby at 11?

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #78055 - Fri Sep 07 2007 10:35 PM

Subtropical Gabrielle just named:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#GABRIELLE

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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