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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: ltpat228]
      #78112 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:47 AM

take a closer look at the infrared satellite loop..don't look at the convection near s. florida, look at the circulation west of that.

I see it around 23.5N and 87W...I am starting to see thunderstorm activity forming to the northeast and southwest of the center.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78114 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:56 AM

No way,

The center is now crossing back over 33N
They haven't put there 2am out yet,
There will be a track change

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78115 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:59 AM

pressure down on Gabrielle... 1005mb

URNT12 KNHC 090549
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/05:36:10Z
B. 33 deg 29 min N
075 deg 54 min W
C. 925 mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 301 deg 040 kt
G. 231 deg 037 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 18 C/ 761 m
J. 22 C/ 784 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0407A GABRIELLE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 05:23:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

2am is out...

**GABRIELLE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS OUTER BANDS MOVE
ONSHORE...**


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 02:03 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78116 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:04 AM

Well, 2am is out and marks the center at 33.5 N...75.9 W; I'm assuming this is based on the recon mission. Interesting how this corresponds neither with the quickscat nor the convection. It is now NE of the convective center which is now down about 33N 76.5W.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
90L [Re: flahurricane]
      #78118 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:16 AM

Quote:

take a closer look at the infrared satellite loop..don't look at the convection near s. florida, look at the circulation west of that.

I see it around 23.5N and 87W...I am starting to see thunderstorm activity forming to the northeast and southwest of the center.




Well here is what I see from NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 90L [Re: ltpat228]
      #78121 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:51 AM Attachment (290 downloads)

based on the level II data from MHX... the low level center has no storms around the center... completely exposed to me... the mid-upp part of the system is to the SW of the low level center... the system is looking pretty bad to me right now... there are no storms around the center... and its over the gulf stream.. looks to me... shear is getting Gabrielle right now... that could change later on this morning...


recon is just to the east of Morehead city... heading back to the south... *actually recon was about 2 miles off of Cape Lookout, the old lighthouse there... they turned toward the beach some on last part of the data i got...**

attached image... redline is basically the flight path of current recon***

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 03:08 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78123 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:56 AM

Where's Gabrielle? Seems like everyone is having trouble with it tonight.

The 11pm NHC discussion mentioned that the low level center appeared to be displaced from a mid-level center that spun-up in the convective flare-up earlier this evening. The latest recon fix confirmed this. Satellite isn't a good tool to be using for finding a center at night given these considerations; you simply cannot see the low-levels. Even the available radars -- Wilmington and Morehead City, NC -- are looking at 11000ft+ and 6000ft+, respectively. Despite that, they do show the remnant midlevel circulation to the WSW/SW of the actual low-level center, just now coming into view on Morehead City radar and as fixed by recon lately.

As for QuikSCAT -- that pass is a few hours old and the high-res pass and ambiguities both suggest the center is in the NE area of that broader circulation, which would be consistent back to around 7p ET when the pass captured the storm.

Is it possible that the low level center can or will reform underneath that convective flareup? Perhaps. But, it has not yet done so and the convective flareup -- and associated mid-level center -- appear to be weakening from latest radar trends. Overall, focus on the recon fixes and what radar tell you before anything from satellite, especially given the eclipse period of the satellite during this time of the evening.

Hope this helps clear the confusion on Gabrielle.

NOTE on 90L: please take all 90L discussion to the Storm Forum and Forecast Lounge for now. Let's keep things on topic for our landfalling storm in this thread; 90L is currently broad, disorganized, and there's not a lot to suggest development from it in the next day or two. If you'd like to discuss it as a future threat, please check out the thread in the Forecast Lounge. Once Gabrielle moves out or development looks more likely from 90L (currently it is fairly low on the development scale), we'll open things up a bit more. Thanks for your cooperation.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Clark]
      #78126 - Sun Sep 09 2007 03:21 AM

6:45 sat shot is up... check out Gabrielle... she's taking a beating... the CDO got sheared, i think do to the ULL to the SSW... **the structure now looks almost like alot of those hurricane icons graphics out there*** << like that one... the CDO is MUCH smaller and there looks like there is another round of convection trying to go... its to the SW of the center, from what i can see on Level II data from MHX... seems the system took a beating last evening?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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syfr
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78127 - Sun Sep 09 2007 07:11 AM

Am on Ocracoke island (tip of outer banks below Hatteras). Rain and moderate winds, but certainly not more than that (yet). Rips were moderate to strong yesterday along the coast near the channel with Portsmouth Island along the Southern edge of Ocracoke.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: syfr]
      #78129 - Sun Sep 09 2007 09:56 AM

If she stays offshore that will probably be the extent of it.Waves will keep coming up as it moves NE.
Getting busy now. 91L is up now and possible 92L forming around 57W south of 20N

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Other Systems [Re: craigm]
      #78145 - Sun Sep 09 2007 12:39 PM

Please see the 2007 Forecast Lounge for the current post on the other 3 currently active systems.

90L in the GOM.
91L in the Eastern Atlantic
92L in the Mid Atlantic.( at 1PM EDT Sunday this system appears to be the earliest, 5 Day, threat to Florida~danielw)

Model runs may be found here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 09 2007 12:43 PM)


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