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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78653 - Wed Sep 19 2007 04:21 PM

93L is not on land yet, it is still swirling off of Cape Canaveral and becoming better defined.. The low to the south of the ULL, did not catch that, so I guess you can throw all the models out, Post analysis will tell us if 93L was at least Subtropical. The radar looks much better and looks tropicalish, with the bands of rain and wind.. it's gusting around or even over 40 mph. here in Palm Coast, which is about 2 to 3 hour north of the center, probably why it should be Subtropical or just a strong extratropical low.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: doug]
      #78654 - Wed Sep 19 2007 04:23 PM

Well, nice to see someone is agreeing with what I said earlier...makes me feel better...lol.

This is what I meant by saying you can't put any stock into what the models were spitting out because they had no idea on where to initialize a center since it hadn't been very clear where the actual center would be. Looks like now the focus will be changing from the LLC coming on shore on the east side to the ULL that is already in the GOM. I wonder how long it will be before other sites and experts start mentioning this.

Shawn


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: doug]
      #78656 - Wed Sep 19 2007 04:35 PM

Quote:

The situation is fluid...Masters Blog just posted (3:40 p.m.) that a LLC is forming under the ULL which will actually impede development into a warm core tropical feature, and will impact intensity. The east coast center is on the peninsula now and is not looking to vigorous. My guess is it will lose out to the one over the water now.




I read Master's blog... i am interested in his comments... although i saw no mention of surface data... Cleary in the Sats... you can see a weak low on the east coast moving in on the cape, of florida... its moving to the west.... surface obs will be intersting to see in a little bit... wonder if we may get two surface lows out of this mess?

NASA Shuttle pad has pressure down to 29.75 or about 1007mb with N winds at 4:30 cdt

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 19 2007 05:25 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78663 - Wed Sep 19 2007 06:23 PM

Interesting how the models are initializing on different lows..some with the ULL and some with the low coming across the state.....will be interesting to see which one is going to be it...looks like the ULL is heading southwest at a decent pace

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: pcola]
      #78665 - Wed Sep 19 2007 06:53 PM

Looks can be deceiving. To me, it looks like the ULL is not moving fast at all, maybe southward.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78666 - Wed Sep 19 2007 07:06 PM

Do you all think this might get out of the way by Saturday? I'm in Pensacola and will be traveling to Orlando on Saturday. Last thing I want is to travel in an onslought of rain....

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: craigm]
      #78667 - Wed Sep 19 2007 07:40 PM

Odd how the main convection in what was Ingrid has spent the last few hours diving south at high speed--take a look. The models show her tracking WNW, but they've probably lost track of the system at this point. Still a lot of shear, I think, but boy has this system been persistent. Ingrid seems to be a night-bloomer. Decent outflow now to the north and east. Who knows?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: SirCane]
      #78668 - Wed Sep 19 2007 07:49 PM

cleary it looks to me that a low has come ashore there just to to the south of Cape, near merrit island... it may just be another vortice spinning in.....but i have looked at alot of obs, including personal stations and local MLB radar... If this is the low, then the question is will this be the one that makes it across the state or will a new low form from the ULL in the GOM?

Finding pressures around 1007-1012mb where it came ashore...on avgerage. I would go with a 1009mb. Some of the personal wx stations have reported some nice sustained winds earlier. There is a personal wx station that has seen a 8-9mb drop today since midnight... thats a good sign i would think that there is something happen in the lower atmosphere there... AKA... low?

Buoy east of the Cape, 20nm... pressure is at 1008 with 15 mph winds... southerly winds

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78669 - Wed Sep 19 2007 08:02 PM

Good Observation Storm Hunter...I live on Merritt Island and the low passed right over. It from winds gusting in the 30s to flat calm and mostly clear. The barometer dipped to 29.68 and just went to 29.69 so it is starting to pass by. You can see the low on the radar quite well...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78670 - Wed Sep 19 2007 08:08 PM

What is now 93L will be a mute point very soon. It is already being forecasted to basically dissapate over land. The focus needs to be redirected to the ULL which is already starting to make progress on working the center down to the surface. Many people are talking about it on the other sites. The problem is that the models are still focused on the LLC which is 93L and that is why they are useless right now. Even the local mets here were pointing that out. Hopefully we will know more by tomorrow morning.

Shawn


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78671 - Wed Sep 19 2007 08:16 PM

I'm not so sure..it is VERY difficult for and upper low to transform...and with conditions becoming more favorable north of the ULL, there is still a good possibility the depression (if it becomes one) forms farther north...i would like t o have pressure readings near the ULL..but 29.68 means the surface low near the cape is still holding on, and that is evident by radar...i think we still have 12-14 hours before anyone knows for sure, that is why it has been quiet

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78673 - Wed Sep 19 2007 08:40 PM

Until the system transits Florida, it is going to be hard to get any kind of useful information from the models. It still seems to have no real tropical look to it. However, once in the Gulf, it does seem like there is a good chance that something can form. Check back in 24 hours and there may be something that can be latched on too.

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Rasvar]
      #78674 - Wed Sep 19 2007 09:05 PM

93L will turn out to be nothing at most a heavey rain maker.. now down to weak on Dvorak scale.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 317
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: pcola]
      #78675 - Wed Sep 19 2007 09:07 PM

This is fascinating to watch. The ULL is impressive but lacks any deep convection and is drawing lots of dry air in. You can see it shearing the healthy convection developing from 93L and pushing it NNW. The center of 93L looks to have moved inland just north of Cape Canaveral. The blob of convection almost points to the location of the LLC as you can see it exhausting heat. The ULL doesn't seem to have moved much in the last 7 hours.For 93L to do anything the ULL will need to move off to the west. If that happens then 93L has a chance to ramp up as it emerges off shore. I would say the panhandle to Louisiana is in for some nasty weather. I refuse to make any intensity 'guess'. Unfortunately for TX it looks like more rain as the ULL heads that way. The ULL translating to the surface possibly could happen, but without anticyclone aloft it won't intensify.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78676 - Wed Sep 19 2007 09:08 PM

Well, might as well chime in with my "2 cents worth" ( may be worth more, but not by much LOL ). I do believe that the low level center which has come ashore near Merritt Island, is not by any means "transient". In tracking it however, one might think that in fact the system is moving somewhat NW'ward. In fact what I think may be happening is not unlike a vorticity max rotating around the eye of a mature system. My guess is that this low level center will not only maintain itself over land, perhaps even deepen slightly as it continues to rotate around the top, and then southwestward into the already stacked upper to mid level off the S.W. Fla. coast. Thus I would guess no additional significant development until at least tomm. night, but then finally some banding of low level feeder lines, and "then" the nice thick tropical feed might start to once and for all, drench most of the Southern half of the state. What I have less of a feel for though, is how much, if any will the upper feature move westward during the next 24 hours.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: weathernet]
      #78680 - Wed Sep 19 2007 10:04 PM

Yeah...I guess I've gotto chime in here too...93L is not the vorticity that moved into the Cape this evening. That vorticity is just that, much like the numerous others that have spun up and spun down in the last few days around the east coast and the Bahamas, and it will fade away soon enough. What is 93L??? Actually, it is the overall system rather than a specific vorticity (That system being the area from the E GOMex to the West W Atlantic/Bahamas to N. Florida).

The vorticity seen moving into the Cape will die down as it moves inland. In general, it is rather small. Also, the conditionas are diurnal so winds will decrease over land over the evening hours and such a weak vorticity will too. Finally...the main circulation envelope at the lower levels is evolving off the SW FLorida Coast as a broad circulation under the ULL (As can be seen in the Shortwave...Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html) The vorticity that moved into the Cape today is pin wheeling around the broader lower level flow in the SE GOMex and at times, there have been subtlehints of other small vorticities...One was over Collier COunty late this afternoon for a brief time then it vanished..

If development occurs, I go with the reformation concept under the ULL off Marco Island. From there, the development would be subtropical...I also do not sense that anything developing is gonna move that fast either. The ULL hasn't moved much, nor has the relative disturbed weather. I believe the models are too fast with their evolution...

Mean time, I give subtropical development a 40% shot for now...it will not come from the Low moving through central Florida if it does...That vorticity will die in the diurnal phase land influence...it will also get absorbed into the overall surface pattern either way. That said...I give a 60% shot of no development for 93Lduring the next 24 hours.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: dem05]
      #78681 - Wed Sep 19 2007 10:11 PM

The vortex actually is already inland, and has been so far an hour or two, based upon Melbourne radar. If it's going to dissipate, it needs to do so in a hurry - looks like it is approaching Orlando very soon, and that's 20% of the way into the Gulf, I estimate (maybe only 15%).

Having said that, the scenario of the ULL transitioning to a subtropical cyclone does seem more realistic. I give it 55% chance currently.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 19 2007 10:12 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Hugh]
      #78682 - Wed Sep 19 2007 10:35 PM

It does appear now that the vortice/low that came ashore over on the east coast will probaly weaken some overnight... there is alot of dry air at about 15k above it.. don't think it will make, since the mid-upp low to the sw is much stronger... also noticing that buoy 42003 is showing pressure drop all day today... If this is the case, then i expect the ULL is winning out right now... tyring to build down to the surface... which would make this a Sub-tropical system at first, then based on its location and weak steering currents... this should transition over into tropical?

This would put the western GOM back under my watch & wait list... I thought about moving my forecast earlier today, but this evening data is changing my thinking... seems that the surface low may form where i thought it would originally... in SE GOM.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Station 42003
Today, September 19, 2007, 26 minutes ago
September 19, 2007 8:49 pm CDT
Location: 25.74N 85.73W
Wind Direction: N (10°)
Wind Speed: 19 knots
Wind Gust: 25 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in (1010.9 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.00 in (-0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 83°F (28.4°C)
Dew Point: 74°F (23.4°C)
Water Temperature: 86°F (30.1°C)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 19 2007 11:29 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1917
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: dem05]
      #78683 - Wed Sep 19 2007 10:40 PM

Eh. This might be some matter of semantics in the end.. but for the sake of continuity, 93L officially is and has been the LLC off the east coast that tracked inland this evening. For reference, NRL currently centers 93L as:
93LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-285N-809W

and SSD is tracking 93L at:
20/ 15 UTC 28.4N 80.7W TOO WEAK 93L

and NHC is tracking 93L as:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

For all of the internet chatter about 93L being what is in all actually still just the center of the parent ULL with some convection and a mild surface reflection, the main player tonight has just moved inland and is crossing north Florida.

All sorts of data back up a "landfall" of a 1005 mb surface low near Merritt Island. This coc has, if anything, tightened into landfall. Additionally, winds are ramping up into the night from the sun going down, as there is no longer a great deal of mixing going on. Also, the heavier rains are really coming in now, especially on the north side of the surface low (93L).

The real questions here are - does this low remain the dominant player - if so, it may never have enough time over water to really develop a whole lot, if it continues WNW or NW, and roughly into the panhandle. Or, as others have suggested, does it get ingested into the subtle restructuring going on under the ULL. Or, does it weaken, and allow the faint surface reflection under the ULL to take hold.

Lots of questions, and no real answers, just yet.


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78684 - Wed Sep 19 2007 10:42 PM

The whole thing looks like a mess and disorganized. I'll be surprised if anything more than a Subtropical Storm comes out of it. Looks more like one of those northeastern systems.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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