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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Happy Birthday MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression 12 forms in East Atlantic... Other Waves
      #78912 - Mon Sep 24 2007 01:08 PM

8:50PM EDT Update 24 September 2007
96L (The wave in the eastern Atlantic Becomes Tropical Depression 12, after a burst of activity tonight and dvork t numbers (Satellite windspeed estimages) that support it. Advisories should begin at 11PM EDT. It is most likely to never affect land.

More to come at 11PM.

Original Update
Today two systems are looking better for development, the most immediate concern in the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (94L). It may form as early as 5PM tonight into a depression. The current model runs have it moving more westward or even slightly south of due west toward Mexico (not likely for US landfall), and because of the upper air situation, likely no more intense than a Tropical Storm.

96L in the far eastern Atlantic may form tomorrow or the next day as well. Right now it's starting to look better, but the overall circulation remains a bit too broad to be classified.

97L near the Windwards is looking a little better today, but likely won't develop before it gets to the islands, still it must be watched.



Jerry has weakened into a depression and will turn extratropical soon.

More to come soon...

Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance in the Gulf (94L) In Next 2 days (Lounge discussion thread here )
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-----]



Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic (96L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here.)
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*----------]



Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (97L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here)
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]



Martinique Radar
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Depression 11 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#11 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#11


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#11 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#11 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#11

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#11
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#11 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

94L (Gulf Disturbance) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float13latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

TD#12 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#12 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#12


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float12latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#12 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#12 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#12

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#12
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#12 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

97L (East of Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: MikeC]
      #78917 - Mon Sep 24 2007 02:40 PM

What what what! i am shocked that yall are only paying attention to the area in the gulf. what about 96L its gonna develop too you know.

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Happy Birthday MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
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Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: punkyg]
      #78918 - Mon Sep 24 2007 02:42 PM

Quote:

What what what! i am shocked that yall are only paying attention to the area in the gulf. what about 96L its gonna develop too you know.




Two things, the one in the Gulf is closer to land, 97L is closer to windwards, 96L may develop tomorrow. It's looking better today, but still a bit too broad a circulation right now (If you look at water vapor satellite loops you can see what I mean). Tomorrow it should be good to be a depression or storm, convection around the center (which is what I'm looking for looks like it may be starting to occur). 96L probably will get sheared up ahead too, which means I don't think it'll become a hurricane at least for a while.

97L is nearing the islands, but isn't looking as good.

The tropics are interesting to watch right now, but there isn't anything all that worrisome about what's going on now.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: punkyg]
      #78920 - Mon Sep 24 2007 03:25 PM

The upper pattern in the Gulf is a little convoluted right now, but it appears that 94L flared up in a narrow zone of difluence aloft (which aids convection) underneath a narrow ridge of high pressure that is sitting between a weakening upper trough over south Texas and a developing upper low over Florida. There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow in the cloud pattern, but it is also still plainly being sheared from the south at some level.

It certainly looks the part of a depression at the moment, but NHC will probably wait to see if it can maintain its current level of organization for awhile (and probably wait for a plane to get in there) before classifying the system. It actually looked better about 1-2 hours ago, but the convection that flared up near the center earlier has died down for the moment.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #78923 - Mon Sep 24 2007 04:31 PM

Actually, I don't think anyone knows where 94L will go. I've seen quite a few models that just want to have it spin around in the GOM for days. The steering currents are extremely weak and that doesn't bold well considering the shear is suppose to lighten up and the water is extremely warm out there. It almost looks like 94L may be trying to reform a new center under the deep convection or something...not sure yet.

Shawn


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BLTizzle
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Eufaula, AL
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #78924 - Mon Sep 24 2007 04:36 PM

The center of 94L seems to be moving under the convection a little better. Looking at the visible it seems the shear might have picked up a bit based on the way the cloud tops are a big more ragged than earlier. Then again, could be diurnal minimum. It'd be nice to have some stronger steering currents to get a better hold on where its gonna go. The shear's supposed to let up a bit and with no steering currents, there are some models that have it just meandering around.

Convection continues to fire on 97L, but its got some mean shear to deal with shortly. If it can survive that then it might have a chance.

96L looks healthy, as it has for most of its life. Looks like the low might be trying to squirm its way down to the surface at around 9.5N 34W. Right smack dab in the middle of all the convection. Nice blow up of thunderstorms in the region too, so I wouldn't be surprised. Don't think it'll be long before it gets classified if that is indeed happening.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: BLTizzle]
      #78925 - Mon Sep 24 2007 04:51 PM

looks like they will make one more adv. pkg for Jerry...
per 5pm
TD Jerry Discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE WE NEED TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS extratropical CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12
HOURS OR SO.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Sep 24 2007 04:52 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves [Re: MikeC]
      #78929 - Mon Sep 24 2007 08:42 PM

This could be more than slightly interesting. Just refreshed NRL and they had No Names up on all three Invests, starting with 96 as 12L.

edit-
I'll amend that to add that, contrary to what that might normally imply, convection in both 94L and 97L has been weakening with time while hitting the diurnal minimums, and 97 has a date with the Graveyard & shear. Overall, they appear structurally fairly intact, so it will become informative to see if they experience an overnight blossoming of deep convection.



Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 24 2007 08:59 PM)


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