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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #79047 - Thu Sep 27 2007 09:05 PM

I hate to disagree and I am not wishcasting by any means. The models are just that...models, but they are coming into agreement late in the period and that not only is there a turn west, but now a WSW component on the GFS and UKMET. This is something that should not be dismissed. The answer is we just dont know, but when the models start lining up, they are perhaps seeing something we might be missing. Dont anyone let their guard down on this one. Dont panic by any means this far out...just stay tuned to this and other avenues of information as they become available. Smart people stay informed and then act appropriately...ok, I'm done with the soapbox...someone elses turn. Here is a link to the latest model run if its not listed here...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200712_model.html

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #79049 - Fri Sep 28 2007 12:02 AM

Here's my thought if it moves more westward like a few of those models were suggesting, if it does so it may be a much more sheared system, in fact it may cease to be Karen, if it does the remains could slip further westward and then could potentially form into something else. Ie, dissipating then reforming.

Ie, the stronger Karen remains the further north it will go, if it remains weak or falls apart it would likely slip further west. I do think the models are letting go of shear too early.

Chances are still pretty high this misses land altogether, and that is good news.


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to be hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #79050 - Fri Sep 28 2007 01:01 AM

When Karen formed as far east as it did, I would have said the chances of it being a worry for anyone other than shipping interests and sea creatures to be 1 in 100. Now, based on its survival to this point and the ridging outlook for next week, I would say more like 1 in 10. It should be interesting to see what Karen looks like by Monday after it's encountered a few days of brutal shear.

Edited by saluki (Fri Sep 28 2007 01:18 AM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: Hurricane29]
      #79066 - Sat Sep 29 2007 07:31 AM

Karen is yet again a naked swirl on the latest visible.. I expect regeneration as it's been happening everyday with this storm. Most models are back to restrengthening it at the end of the runs and missing this so called trough that few models are developing to curve it. We'll see what happens with Karen, this weekend is when we should find out the fate or the pace of karen.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: allan]
      #79070 - Sat Sep 29 2007 05:14 PM

Last advisory is just now issued on Karen, yet we have NOT seen the last of it as shear has weakened from 50 knots to 25-30 knots today. I agree with them, no circulation now, but most models believe Karen is going to make a huge comeback in about 2 to 3 days, again, we'll see.. models can be models, I do see conditions improving by then. Melissa should pose no threat to us, a very slight chance it will pose a threat to Bermuda, anythings possible, always got to remember that. That area in the Bahamas, still do not believe it will pull whatever Karen has left to the north, but again, we'll see. Until I see total dissipation (no convection) with Karen, I will continue my daily runs with it and will continue to moniter for regeneration in a few days.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Far East Atlantic, Lorenzo Makes Landfall [Re: allan]
      #79071 - Sat Sep 29 2007 06:46 PM

Karen is dead and will be a remnant low in 24 hours, but NHC is leaving some wiggle room on the numerical models. It is a very elongated mess right now and I can see why they are issuing the last advisory on it. She's beat like a rented mule.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Is Karen gone for good? [Re: TampaRand]
      #79112 - Mon Oct 01 2007 07:43 PM

I was looking at the Canadian 12Z run at the FSU site. Looks like it might have been hitting some good Canadian beers. Check out the 144 hour mark. Looks like it wants to revive Karen and blast Key West.

--------------------
Jim


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Is Karen gone for good? [Re: Rasvar]
      #79116 - Mon Oct 01 2007 09:42 PM

Yep, thank heaven for the CMC site. Was really getting worried seeing "ex-Karen" firing up each day. Now after CMC's late run today depicting a Cat. 5 over Key West......, only now can I truly sleep at night; comforted by the fact that given CMC's latest prediction, that there now could be ABSOLUTELY no chance of such an event from happening. Note: Should tonight's 0Z CMC run suddenly "drop" Karen altogether, be afraid......BE VERY AFRAID! ( lol )

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