weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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To start, a simple and direct prediction. Tropical Storm Noel forms east of south/central Florida.
Before I go any further, let me quantify this prediction further by saying that if comes to fruition, I believe likely to be a beach erosion and rain event, more than anything else. If it were to move westward into the Gulf under possible mid level ridging, than perhaps a more significant and greater risk to the Western or Northern Gulf coast thereafter.
Lets see......, "possible" weak low to develop at the base of an upper to mid level West Atlantic trough, strong upper level wind shear, no real model concensus indicating tropical cyclone formation, and the one and strongest model supporting formation being NAM?! So then, why?
First of all, as noted from my previous post ( Karen Forum ), practically 70% of all named storms this year, have passed within approx. 700 miles of Havana, Cuba ( used as a mid or central point ). Climatology would soon dictate Caribbean, Gulf, and far Western Atlanltic development as we go into October/November. This along with consistantly predicted slight to moderate La Nina devlolopment, thus enhancing Atlantic basin activity for the remainder of the season.
As is currently seen on vis. sat., a well defined inverted "V" signature is present East of Florida. Convection has been firing up in response to convergence, and especially the current upper diffluent dynamic. Though winds upstairs are quite strong, they certainly are diffluent. I rather expected to see the to become less aggressive in developing a deepening low east of central/north Florida, and to come in line with the trough solution. Instead, still no continuity, and yet the seems to deepen a low even more, while developing farther south than its previous run, having such a low move over S. Florida and into the Gulf where "Noel" really develops. Will be interesting to see if surface observations today through tomm. in the Bahamas show dropping pressures, in the face of strong building surface heights, thus causing the already predicted pressure gradient. Only conformity I note is that what weak reflection that does show developing, remains south and does move westward over S. Fla. This at least, seems more in line with NAM's latest run.
Finally, and contrary to model development, models this year seem to have continually be to fast, or ahead of timing on forecasted development. I would have a difficult time seeing rapid development, but perhaps beyond 96 hours, and after the building ridge to our north abates, I do believe formation to occur. At such a point though, there could be a COL, and would not surprise me if little initial motion occured at first, as the system may be caught between a weak ridge to its east, and a ridge over the northern Gulf. Northeast motion out to sea, or West to WNW under the high? Don't know, but lets see first if we have a new storm first.
Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 01 2007 06:37 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Here Here on the probabilities of a new TC forming out that way over the course of the next 72 hours. (I also rambled about this potential in my personal weather blog late Friday night) .. I'll even take your post one further... I see the potential for up to two separate depressions (or likely better) forming during the next 10 days within an area roughly from within the western half of the Caribbean through all of the GOM and out to around Bermuda. As I am sure you know, this is now also even getting some play in several of the models.
With the amplified ridge-trof leveling out, looking more probable that a low will, if not already is, be pinching and closing off somewhere around Cuba/Fl Straits up to around Bermuda. It's now looking like the is buying into that solution, and is wanting to split the developing low in two, sending one cyclone fishing out to the northeast, and it's sister acting as a synoptic left-mover, scurrying northwest into the GOM. Variations of this are running among other models, of course. Both the & UKMET seem to want to reawaken Karen, perhaps, and have her possibly tap into that newfound broth synergistically, then off to fish while, yes, that left-mover heads off to the GOM. Looks like the simply wants to spit out a deepening cyclone and send it northwesterly under the ridge to cross S. Florida, and then into the GOM. Etc. Frankly, there is now a pretty good chunk o moddo suppoto for this prognostication we have.
Just checking the obs (4:30 ET, 3:30 here) looks like pressures are indeed falling in the area where convection has been persisting about there...
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AdrianInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Indialantic, FL
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Heck, the winds coming off the Atlantic due to the pressure differeces have felt as tropical as anything we've had in east-central Florida this year. Yesterday we had sustained 20-25 MPH winds most of the day.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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It's now 90L... as I saw the models for it, the words "deja vu" came into mind 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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lol.... this might be a little different than TD 10.... time will tell!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Charleston, SC 32.78N 79.94W
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I find this section of the 10:30 AM CDT to be very interesting, "THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO." Also, a QuikScat pass from about two hours ago shows 20 - 30 knot winds off the coast of Florida. From this image it looks like the low is centered on or just north of the western portion of Cuba.
The models appear to be split on the path of the system with the BAM Models taking it into Pensacola and the UKMET and taking it into Port Arthur, Texas and the as far south as Brownsville, Texas. The latest forecast surface maps from the HPC show the system going into the Upper Texas coast, about where Humberto went in.
As for development, it is still not out of the question but the system will have to fight some shear, but it looks like the shear over the Gulf of Mexico will decrease over the next few days, according to the models.
My call is for this system to make landfall between Houston, TX and Pensacola, FL on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday as either a strong frontal/open wave system or a weak tropical storm.
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