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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
94L West Caribbean Forum
      #79198 - Sun Oct 07 2007 08:00 PM

Though I would not exceed a 40/60 chance for Noel to come out of this W. Caribbean soup, upper air seems marginally favorable, water temps are between 29-30C, and climotolgoy would tend to favor development. Perhaps one aspect which I think may work against development, is 94L proximity to land. Looking at the NRL site, it looked as if they were showing a 1004mb low at approx. 17.0 and 82.0. Seemed to me that the system has certainly become better defined as a low, rather than a broader trough. Seems to me however, that the system is located farther west and south, around 16.5N and 87.0W. Could be drifting westward along with the lower level trades. May also be why the majority of the models are attempting to carry the system between west and northwest over Yucatan. Though looking a little shallow at the moment, some deep overnight bursting of convection could temperarily quell any real motion, and / or potential reforming under any new convective bursting ( which right now is limited to directly over the Northern Yucatan penninsula.

Earlier runs of GFS seemed as if enough of a significant long wave pattern change may drop a weak, albeit noticable. Such 500mb flow ahead of such a deep trough, would certainly turn any W. Caribbean system northward, then northeastward ahead of the front. Later runs though would seem to have the pattern somewhat "flatter", also indicating ridging over the Southeastern CONUS, and furthering the liklihood of overall West to WNW motion. This unless we start seeing some additional shortterm forecast trend changes.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: weathernet]
      #79199 - Mon Oct 08 2007 11:29 AM

no one watching this?...I don't like October storms in this area...It has fair to above average potential to organize...does look as if the locus of the rotation is more west...1004 mb is close to TD level if it is closed off.

--------------------
doug


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: doug]
      #79200 - Mon Oct 08 2007 11:55 AM

The NHC is less likely to do what if reporting so as not to scare anyone, the HPC does not seem to be so restrained.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
104 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH COULD BE LURED NORTHEAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA OR CUBA...
THE GFS PRODUCTS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS DO
NOT MATCH ANY OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE NOR DO THEY LOOK REALISTIC.
THE NAM...WHICH MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING CONSIDERING THE WORDING OF
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND THE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...COULD BE TOO STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM. INTERESTINGLY...SHIPS GUIDANCE ON THE LOW RUN BY NHC
ACTUALLY SUPPORT THE NAMS CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE EXPECTED UPPER
PATTERN DOES NOT PARTICULARLY FAVOR THE WESTWARD TRACK SEEN IN
SOME OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE/CANADIAN/UKMET...A NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY EAST TRACK APPEARS MOST REASONABLE CONSIDERING ITS
RECENT MOTION AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COUPLED WITH THE PREFERENCE ABOVE
CONCERNING THE CYCLONE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH
SHOULD ACT AS A KICKER TO THIS TROPICAL LOW...THE NAM IS LIKELY
TOO QUICK TO BOOT THE TROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA
CONSIDERING ITS MORE WESTERN SOLUTION UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL FAVOR A SOLUTION SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN THE NAM THOUGH ALONG
ITS GENERAL TRACK...BUT NOT AS WEAK AT THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/
GFS/UKMET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT 00Z NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS/DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: doug]
      #79201 - Mon Oct 08 2007 12:00 PM

For some odd reason the only thing stopping TD development is closed low lol, conditions are very favorable but this broad low needs to close, it looked like it was closing a bit earlier, but the convection is expanding eastward but not around.. so it looks more like a trough. However, I believe today it will close off and rapidly strengthen into a TS by tommorrow. As for the track, Floridians down south of me need to watch this closely. The trough to the north looks stronger and I believe it will track similiar to Wilma. Strength wise, I wouldn't be surprised if it does become a major hurricane in a couple of days, conditions are perfect, just need to close that darn low off!
I do agree on some of the wunderground bloggers, recon should NOT have been canceled because things could get interesting later on today

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: allan]
      #79202 - Mon Oct 08 2007 03:51 PM

The circulation seems to be low level and no real corresponding mid -upper level support yet thus it does resemble a bulge in the trough that extends from east Cuba to Belieze. If it can begin to fire some convection north and NW of the perceived location of the 1004 MB low then it might tighten up enough to merit a flying inspection...
I don't like storms in this area this time of year.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Oct 08 2007 03:52 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: doug]
      #79203 - Mon Oct 08 2007 05:42 PM

low is now closed, tonight things will get interesting. Dr Masters believes a TD is much likely tommorrow and I agree however, it may wind up into one late tonight if convection can increase all the way. The track is a big question, very similiar to what was with Wilma, Mexico or Florida.. I still believe this will recurve like Michelle did in 2001.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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bobbistorm
Unregistered




Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: allan]
      #79204 - Mon Oct 08 2007 08:25 PM

I think for now the system is close enough to land that it can be properly watched and studied.

Personally I think most of it is over land... maintained a nice spin all day.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 94L West Caribbean Forum [Re: weathernet]
      #79205 - Tue Oct 09 2007 03:08 AM

Early this Tuesday morning (about 2AM CDT) post-eclipse it appears that some tentative banding features may actually be in the works, as well as, finally, one real thunderstorm blowup very near the coc.

While it is easy to be fooled into thinking that 94l is now inland, I believe this to be more likely a mirage. Scanning the satellite enhancements and pairing them up with the most recent scats and area buoy, ship and c-man reports, I think that the surface low is still roughly centered near 18N 87W, as of this response.

It's hard to make a case for 94L to threaten the US within at least the next 4 days or so, as a rather powerful high should be blocking any significant northward component. In fact, as already mentioned elsewhere, a number of models simply want to keep this feature slowly lollygagging around in the northwestern Caribbean and/or inland over the Yucatan.

I think that this stale pattern may give should the largely-advertised Nor'easter develop later this week, and perhaps then talk of northbound movement makes more sense. It is October, and climatology shows that features in the Caribbean often like to recurve.. into Cuba/Florida.. based on, climatology.


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