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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Some models hinting at development!
      #79244 - Mon Oct 22 2007 08:59 PM Attachment (483 downloads)

Not so much in the carribean, but where you would see develoment in September! NOGAPS, GFS, CMC is forecasting a storm to form from that sheared tropical wave. I can't agree nor dissagree. If what Frank Strait says is right, the high pressure will build over the storm and calm the shear, which I see shear has tuned down a bit in all areas. So I guess it's a wait and see
here's the CATL wave
http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n75/stormchaser302002/rb-l.jpg

for the model tracks, see attachment above

About one week ago, I mentioned somewhere on here that we could be tracking something in two weeks, and i'll restate it again, in one week, we may be tracking something.. It's not over till it's over and Zeta proved that in 2005!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Mon Oct 22 2007 09:02 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Very Quiet Mid to Late October [Re: allan]
      #79247 - Wed Oct 24 2007 11:41 AM

I am now very concerned with the carribean disturbance, not only has a LLC formed south of Jamaica, but a anticyclone has formed with it to.. which means it could protect the carribean disturbance from shear for a while..
The Lesser Antilies should have been tagged 90L yesterday. However, the NHC is watching it closely. This is the storm that most models form into either a TD or TS in a few days, this needs to be monitered closely. With La Nina in town, it's hard to say Hurricane Season is ending so soon. I expect possibly 3 or 4 more named systems before the season is out.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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