weathernet
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Reged: Sat
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Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Just when I was trying to hybernate, alongs come a final "Season Without A Reason - Teasin ". Seems like 'ol Noel may be around the corner, with the big question being .... will anyone notice? My gut tells me that Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will get some good rains outa this, but Florida need be wary in the less than likely event that a continued westward motion continue. Should that happen, we might see a truly significant system under a large upper high, and a more likely motion to impact South Florida. For now, will assume the slow motion to indicate this to be less likely, but will certainly be interesting to see how tomm. plays out, and what new data recon pulls from its flight.
Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 31 2007 12:10 AM)
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captmarti
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Marathon, Florida, USA
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Hi All,
We're watching TD 16 closely here in the Keys--Boot Key Harbor, Marathon-- since we're in the 5 day cone. From the forecast it looks like Monday will be too breezy to take the boats to the Little Shark River hidey hole. I'm encouraging all the boaters here to start their preliminary prep. Fingers crossed.
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Capt Marti
Cruising Companion Publications
aboard s/v The Other Woman
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Marti-
Yeah, your sure right about early prep. Really was surprised to see the appearance this a.m., and quite frankly by quick look at this a.m.'s early vis. sat., I would say that the upper air is improving already. The ULL to Noel's west ( ok, wll jumping the gun here, but will assume Noel by 5:00pm ), appears to be collapsing. While I am leaning towards a solution which will hook the system to the right ahead of the next short wave, I too am a little wary for a couple reasons. My biggest concern is that the storm may become a little eratic and bounce around with somewhat confused and weak steering. Onlike most seasons, this October has yet to bring a clean front through, and the mid level steering has yet to enforce its "fall-like" grip over the Southeastern U.S. One thing for sure, the pressure gradient here over South Florida is gonna tighten up pretty good.
Keep a "weather-eye" on both the and the . Seems that the model has a pretty good take on picking up whether or not a system is baroclinic or more tropical; that and I have always found to be most reliable on motion. As soon as we get some good data in from recon, I would say that tonight's 0Z run may prove to be rather interesting. Will be curious to see if starts to show a more developed system than is current, and if it shows a 72-120 hour forecast more in line with . If so, am putting my money on a concensus track between those two. On intensity, am just gonna have to hold off on that thought for a few hours, but am certainly in the mindset of this system easily reaching min. hurricane status if a more westward track occurs for the next couple days.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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thanks, this evening they showed two track scenarios on tv in miami
one.. out to sea
two... moves around a bit and then not so certain it doesn't affect south florida and the keys... while it dances around the straits
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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Southeast Florida may go under Tropical Storm watch in the AM...what do you think of the eventual track of this storm
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 29 2007 11:23 PM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Scott,
Speaking for myself, I beleive that although the overall envelope of Noel is quite large, that the inner core is surprisingly quite small. This along with decreased shear in the short term, may allow for slightly stronger strengthening than what is presently forecasting. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if we were to see a minimal hurricane just off the Florida coastline sometime late Hollow's Eve. I am not sure the date, and may have been today, or possibly on Holloween, but in 1965 areas in S. Florida received over 13" of rain. I do not recall the circumstances and perhaps baroclinic in nature, but point being that a somewhat more westward motion in the short term, along with a slow and eratic motion, S. Florida could well see copious rainfall amounts. Latest does in fact progress the 500 short wave a tad quicker than in previous runs, however the overall long wave pattern has not been conducive to significant troughing in the Southeastern U.S. thus far this fall season. I do not see real evidence of change yet either. Now, as I write this, I am positive that a sudden shift of Noel's low level center is about to be made into the more significant bursting convection to its centers' north, thus solidifying not only a truer 315 degree motion, but what would be an increase of forward motion. Such would fit nicely within the anticipated forecast track. This all said, I can still see a yet to deepen storm, being steered more by the low to mid levels during the next 24 hours. In fact, contrary to the greater science at hand, I believe that a more WNW motion may prevail.
I think that although unlikely, such a more westward motion along with a little greater deepening, that it would seem far more prudent for to hoist the Tropical Storm Warnings ( and even a Hurricane Watch pending an overnight several millibar drop ) for S. Florida, rather than the politically preferable high Wind Warning. No doubt that warnings would invoke schools to close, parties and trick or treating activities to be affected, along with a host of private and public readiness to initiate - costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to the local economy. The alternative could be a "spot on" forecast with only fast showers and a little higher winds for S. Florida and the Keys ( which should NOT be taken for granted and such tight forecasting with such accuracy most commendable )......or the other alternative being a deepening small core minimal hurricane moving very slowly droping 20" or more over parts of S. Florida - all this while little or no preperation made for boaters, business, commuters, and Holloween revellers.
TRICK or TREAT? I'll sit tight for now trusting , but then again I don't need much time to chase a minimal hurricane in the Upper Keys.
Edited by weathernet (Tue Oct 30 2007 01:45 AM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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reading back over what you wrote .. back when we didn't think he would go due west for more than 12 hours
interesting
now what do you think?
"I think that although unlikely, such a more westward motion along with a little greater deepening, that it would seem far more prudent for to hoist the Tropical Storm Warnings ( and even a Hurricane Watch pending an overnight several millibar drop ) for S. Florida, rather than the politically preferable high Wind Warning."
because i think the front is dead in the water and high pressure is building to the north of noel
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Evening everyone!
Noel has slowed down and that shortwave that was stalled out in Eastern Texas is now on the move. It should still have enough strength to pull Noel up and possibly skirting the coast of South Florida, it's too far to the west to be moving 200 miles east or lets just say 78W. This system is looking VERY impressive tonight and once it gets back into the waters, things could certainly get interesting. South Floridians should have some supplies and stuff just incase Noel turns dangerous. Not just for South Florida but because of the pressure gradient, ALL of the Penninsula of Florida including me should be prepared for some nasty winds tonight, tommorrow, and possibly hanging on Thursday.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Tue Oct 30 2007 11:03 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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I think there should be TS watches up for Se Florida.The reason,the has been off on the track almost from the begining,and this is to close of a call even going by their latest track.They said it should have turned north yesterday morning,and here we are at 11:00pm tonight and it maybe just starting the turn towards the north now.It appears to be getting better organized.Just my 2 cents.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Lois,
A little delayed on following up on your post, but to answer your question, I must have a screw loose because I just don't see this "big turn" coming "any minute". Even after a reported 11:00pm NW motion of 5mph, I do not buy it. Just now as I am typing, Max Mayfield on our local news is showing a dry slot over Texas claiming that this is why a turn is imminent?! How come the 0Z run shows a huge ridge over the Gulf ( which appears to build eastward with time ). Furthermore, whatever trough Max is pointing out is on the west side of this high, and seems to be a upper air reflection, not a mid level one. If anything, I see increasing ridging over the Southeastern U.S., not troughing. If I am wrong, it will be evident very very soon. Furthermore, should Noel move westward over water, south of Cuba all bets are off.
Mind you, my perception of motion would not necessarily bring Noel here to S. Fla, but more likely place a strenghening storm in a "COL", south of Cuba moving erratically ( not atypical of late season systems ). I won't even guess beyond that, given the oddly insurmountable model guidance suggesting immenant "Tropicus Ejectus".
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The 's track today has been pretty much spot on. Yesterday's track wasn't as high confidence, and the hurricane center indicated that.
There are wind and gale warnings up for parts of the Florida coast, given the situation, it's probably the best thing since the system really won't come close enough to get winds directly associated with Noel.
The "wall" I was referring to earlier can really be seen on Water Vapor loops, and this i sgoing toi keep almost all of the rain activity to the east of Florida. The Bahamas, however, are going to see much more of the rain activity.
Gradient driven winds right now in South Florida are about what you'll get through Thursday. Maybe even weaker if the storm pulls out further east,.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Quote:
Finally, He will turn north...I love those Steering Charts Allen. Always a personal favorite. If you click the +3 and -3 buttons, it is apparent the high is slowly "eastbound and down...Loaded up and truckin'" In it's own way, so Noel will turn.. When? Is going to remain my question as I agree to disagree in a 315 degree forward motion...You can't will something to do something it is not doing....
Yes! I was doing the exact same thing.. The ridge is moving, taking it's time and moving. It should allow a recurvature in about 18-24 hours as that shortwave is FINALLY moving eastward. It will probably either skirt or maybe surprise South Floridians with a landfall before pushing more eastward in my opinion.
It's funny, I went 24 hours before and there wasn't much of a ridge, then a few hours later, it started at the Tennessee Valley and then it headed to the Carolinas by 20 hours. Now the ridge is just off the Carolina coastline. Again, people in South Florida and even Central Florida (basically pressure gradient) should be prepared for anything.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Sorry Mike,But I have to agree with the other peeps,the did not do a great job with this,And it is far from over.All you need to do is go back to the forcast maps from yesterday and even today and see how far off the was.This is a storm that may just be starting to make a mark on this season.It may just go out to sea,or it may not.It seems every few hours things change.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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I'm gonna go ahead and explain what the steering maps are for and how they should be used..
there are 6 maps of steering, each of those are different.
1. Steering Layer
700-850
for TC MSLP of
1000-1010
This would be steering currents for something like Noel or Barry or basically a Tropical Storm/ Minimal Hurricane.
1000- 1010 means the low pressure of the storm (example.. 1002 milibars)
2. Steering Layer
500-850
for TC MSLP of
990-999
This trend continues to go down unitl you reach a category 4-5 magnitude which is 940 or below.
Steering maps can be helpful, especially with times like these lol
If you really want to know when Noel is going to recurve, do the math..
go to the first steering map and click on -3 hours 8 times which equals 24 hours ago.
Look where the ridge is at and then go foward 3 hours 8 times. the ridge is moving, and should allow Noel to recurve in 18-24 hours from now. I hope this explains the whole westward movement. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Quote:
Sorry Mike,But I have to agree with the other peeps,the did not do a great job with this,And it is far from over.All you need to do is go back to the forcast maps from yesterday and even today and see how far off the was.This is a storm that may just be starting to make a mark on this season.It may just go out to sea,or it may not.It seems every few hours things change.
Beginning from this morning forward, I think the may be a bit off, probably too far to the west if anything, but still it's been good today. I'm not talking about yesterday, or previously when the itself said they were not very confident of the forecast.
This is most likely a non-event for Florida other than a few gusty winds based on the gradient, and beach erosion, which from current indications won't be as bad as I thought they would be yesterday. There isn't any reason to really hype this up. It is interesting to watch a system like this, however. It's worth discussing at least. But if this were an active year, it wouldn't even be receiving much attention at all.
What is interesting is that Noel is looking better on satellite, except for the flat western side, which still has a lot of dry air and is creating that "wall" effect on the imagery.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Mike,
I agree that the overall appearance does look good on sat. I think there may be a short term degradation of overall appearance as this "wall" you speak of is a reflection of the 200mb westerly flow which for the life of me, I cannot understand how believes a shallow system is supposed to be directionally reacting to. This said, providing that the shear is not so significant to de-couple Noel, than come morning I anticipate new bursting to start occuring over water SOUTH of Cuba were the low level center is on a slow westward trek. At this time, I would guess that if the mid/upper circlulation were to be ripped off, it would in fact be in tandum with the upper 200mb flow, thus some kind of verification of the models ( I guess ). But as you noted, given its appearance currently, this certainly does not look to be the case at the moment.
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Artemis
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: West Palm Beach
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<--checking in from west Palm.
Well, if this is going to be a "non-event" for Florida, I'd like to request a LOT more "non" and a lot LESS "event."
Occasional gusty winds? Try almost constant gusty winds since last night and the afternoon is supposed to get worse. The cats were up all night watching the trees blow around and the blinds on my covered porch are falling down as we speak. I think South Florida can pretty much write off trick-or-treating tonight.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Now look at the steering currents for a 990- 999 MLB storm!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
Shoudl recurve very soon.. This is what I was waiting for last night.. the ridge is far enough to the east for Noel to turn NNE in time. Looks like it's gained some strength today. If you also look at the steering map, you can tell why it's stationary.... weak current as of now, should change later as that shortwave comes to push Noel out to sea.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Noel should be a Cat 1 by sometime today...might make it to a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. Path is still right on forecast and never got past the 78.5-70W boundry. A NNE direction is happening right now about about 20dg, A more NE motion near 40dg will happen later today (Thurs).
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Morning guys..
Noel is heading north and will continue to do so for the day. I don't expect a NNE movement till this evening and possibly a direct NE turn till tonight. this is all due to the steering currents and I feel a shift on the track to the west seems reasonable due to the continued northward movement. Folks in Cape Cod, MA and Maine need to watch for some outer bands of a strong storm.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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