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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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dnmcdn1@aol.com
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Florida/October
      #79784 - Wed Apr 16 2008 10:13 PM

I have a question? We are planing a trip for florida in Oct. 2008, are we safe? Just wondering!!!

edited title --Clark

Edited by Clark (Wed May 28 2008 11:41 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 944
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: dnmcdn1@aol.com]
      #79786 - Fri Apr 18 2008 12:06 PM

I debated if this was serious, but since it may be...statistically there are infinitely small probabilities that any danger would exist at any particular point in Florida on any given day in October 2008. How's that?

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doug


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: dnmcdn1@aol.com]
      #79787 - Sat Apr 19 2008 01:19 PM

Quote:

I have a question? We are planing a trip for florida in Oct. 2008, are we safe? Just wondering!!!




I wouldn't worry about it too much. Hurricanes do happen here during October (evidenced by Wilma in '05), but not all that often. And as the previous poster stated, the chances of one hitting in a particular place on a certain day are quite small. You might want to keep an eye on the tropical weather outlook in the days leading up to your trip just so you'll know if there's a possibility of anything imminent.


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: FSU stats re: HURRICANE DAYS THIS YEAR; historically low [Re: dnmcdn1@aol.com]
      #79906 - Wed May 28 2008 11:40 PM

Quote:

I have a question? We are planing a trip for florida in Oct. 2008, are we safe? Just wondering!!!




On any given day, based upon climatology, you have less than a 1-in-100 shot of being impacted by a tropical system anywhere in Florida in October.

That said, most storms that impact the state in October tend to come from the Gulf of Mexico rather than the Atlantic, often traveling to the north or northeast as they cross the state and interact with mid-latitude frontal systems and such. Still, I wouldn't be worried at all.

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