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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: MikeC]
      #81582 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:10 AM

I hope this shift east does not continue.What about this thing coming off the gulf coast,looks like that could push Faye more east.
www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Radilman1
Unregistered




Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81583 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:20 AM

Most of y'all probably have this in your toolbag, but I just found it this morning : http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/#ta. IUsing googleEarth, you can display model tracks, recon data, radar and clod coverage in google earth

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81587 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:31 AM Attachment (291 downloads)

I think that there are many similarities to the track of Cleo in 1964 which I attached

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81588 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:35 AM

Quote:

I think that there are many similarities to the track of Cleo in 1964 which I attached




I don't like that track!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #81589 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:51 AM

I noticed the "cone" goes all the way to MS/AL. Should the Pensacola area be at all concerned?

Here's hoping it goes to a sparsely populated area.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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enterlaughing
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: Tampa 27.99N 82.46W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: Rosy]
      #81591 - Sat Aug 16 2008 11:58 AM

OK - first time FL hurricane for me.....I understand the entire cone area is affected. I lived 20 miles west of Houston back when Alicia hit Galveston. I know the power it had even after traversing land and coming inland. Just a forecast guess, guys and gals, should I put my hurricane panels up in Winter Haven?

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 253
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81592 - Sat Aug 16 2008 12:01 PM

I don't put too much stock in the latest shift back east. We are at the 'ping-pong' stage for these models. It goes left one run and right the next. What we need to do is watch for trends and a narrowing of the cone. Cone width indicates the confidence in the models. Since this is the forcast lounge and speculation is OK, I am declaring this a southeastern GOM storm. RIght now, there seems to be a balance between weakness to the north and its tendancy to continue west. However, the farther west this storm goes and at this fast pace, the harder it will be to make a hard right turn, especially with land interaction. THis is just my opinion and I have been wrong before.....lots.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 29
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #81596 - Sat Aug 16 2008 12:24 PM

I wonder if the models sufficently take into account the effect of the high mountains of Hispanola on a disorganized tropical wave/storm. Could it kill off the northern and central parts of the low, leaving only the southern part, with it's center 90 miles south of the predicted track as the convection seems to indicate?

Putting it over water, not Cuba, and sending it into the Gulf, not Florida.

But what do I know?


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garlgesnuff
Unregistered




Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #81601 - Sat Aug 16 2008 01:09 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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DLB1752
Unregistered




Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: garlgesnuff]
      #81607 - Sat Aug 16 2008 02:40 PM

That comment about st. pete getting leveled is very irresponsible. You never know who is reading this forum. You need to provide at least some kind of information to back that up, besides the statement they are "over due". A Cat 1 (though I have learned after ten years of tracking hurricanes predicting intensity is very difficult) would not level st. pete, even on a direct hit, which hardly any models presently suggest that. Not to sound sharp, I just did not like that comment.

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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: DLB1752]
      #81622 - Sat Aug 16 2008 04:02 PM

Why is everyone jumping onto every shift in the model track and not comparing the new ones with the old ones?

To hype a hit for Tampa is irresponsible this far out. It hasn't finished with Cuba and we have no idea which part of
Cuba will take the brunt of this storm. And, it is possible it stays on the eastern tip that I don't believe has high mtn ranges. Desert like conditions around Gitmo.

With the GFDL swinging back to the favored path yesterday of the East Coast Scenario I believe anything beyond figuring out today and tomorrow is wild speculation and panics people.

The question remains. Is the high to the north of Fay (a weak high) strong enough to keep her westbound or weak enough to allow her to begin moving more to the north.

Do not be fooled into believing a storm has to make a gradual turn from w to wnw to nw to nnw.. no it doesn't. They often stop in mid-stream.

On the water vapor imagery all afternoon there have been pop up showers in the straits where the river of dry air was positioned to the nw of Fay. It's almost gone and the barometer has dropped in Miami from a healthy high of 30.05 this morning to 29.99 this afternoon (with no rain storms anywhere to account for the drop) so look at the water vapor loop like Clark said and see which way the moisture is going.

It is very reasonable to believe the GFDL is on to something. Either it's your "go to" model or it's not. But the track from the NHC will take both the HWRF and the GFDL into account and they will find a balance.

Stop looking at the words TAMPA on TWC and focus on the whole state because much of Florida will have to deal with Fay soon.

And, the center is just reaching the tiny eastern tip of Cuba and if it is beginning to lift to the wnw then it won't be over land for very long.

--------------------
Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: DarleneCane]
      #81647 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:02 PM

The 5PM forecast "track" has shifted ever so slightly to the West bringing Fay very near Venice/Sarasota on Tuesday afternoon - a little faster and slightly weaker than the previous forecast. It's still 4 -5 days out, so this track and intensity will vary as more data is collected for each model run. I'm making my preparations today and tomorrow before the last minute folks swamp the stores on Monday/Tuesday. As stated several times, everyone in the FL peninsula should be making preparations before Monday. Keep in mind that a Cat 1 storm is very survivable and some of us "old salts" would regard it as slightly more than a nuisance (with healthy respect, of course).

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: MichaelA]
      #81648 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:07 PM

Here's the headache inducing part of the storm, intensity is a crap shoot...

From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:

Quote:


When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.

All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization.





So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.


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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
5pm disc said track pulled east [Re: MichaelA]
      #81651 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:25 PM

A bit confused here.

The 5pm discussion clearly said the track was moved up a bit faster and a bit to the East. While I am sure that Naples is in that cone they said specifically east.

They also call for a sharp turn. So where she turns makes all the difference.

--------------------
Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 5pm disc said track pulled east [Re: DarleneCane]
      #81653 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:33 PM

Quote:

A bit confused here.

The 5pm discussion clearly said the track was moved up a bit faster and a bit to the East. While I am sure that Naples is in that cone they said specifically east.

They also call for a sharp turn. So where she turns makes all the difference.



Yes, they said East, but the track is slightly West of the 2PM intermediate advisory. It is slightly East of the 11AM advisory.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 5pm disc said track pulled east [Re: MichaelA]
      #81655 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:41 PM

Quote:


Yes, they said East, but the track is slightly West of the 2PM intermediate advisory. It is slightly East of the 11AM advisory.




They do not update the forecast track in intermediate advisories. The new model runs are done at the time of the intermediates, but the official forecast is not changed until the full package is sent out, unless there is a drastic change in strength, in which case they will issue a new strength forecast sometimes. I've never seen them change the track.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: MikeC]
      #81660 - Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM

The only thing that worries me is the outflow. From the get go this storm has an excellent outflow thus if it every gets it act together it could blow up. Now with that said its looking very ragged right now, even the NHC said the winds are down. The interaction with the land is starting to do the damage to its structure we all excepted over Haiti.

My original thought is still holding up pretty good: Fay moved further south, thus the track went west and the time line for arrival has slowed. While the east coast isn't out of the woods yet I don't think we'll see much from this system even after it hops Cuba as it only has small window to pickup steam. Some where between the Panhandle and points north of Ft. Myers would be my guess-timate at this time at Cat 1 level only.

The Water Vapor loops (my favorite tell-all for storms) shows a spin ahead that will draw the storm further west, so I think the turn to the north will be later (and slightly sharper) then NHC shows, however the end result will be the same. Hard to judge that front stalled to the north, it seems to just be sliding east now, not sure when its going to break down and/or begin to draw Fay north.

One thing is for sure: it going to be very windy in Key West come Monday. That should give us a good feel for the true natural of this particular storm.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: JMII]
      #81663 - Sat Aug 16 2008 06:48 PM

It is now starting to shrug off some of the effects of land. There have been 2 or 3 big bursts of convection near the center. I think I saw the LLC still a little out front but that center could be pulled under the new convection thats firing up. That would also keep the center south of the 24hr projected path...not a good thing as more time over very warm water with very high heat potential

Edited by WeatherNut (Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM)


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL 30.44N 86.62W
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81666 - Sat Aug 16 2008 07:00 PM

I was out and about a little today to the local home improvement stores, and there were a decent amount of people there. Seemed to me though that they were just there to get stuff for projects and not for storm preparation. Rumour in town though is some people are already worried about the storm. All this and at the moment we are close to the western edge of the "CONE". Time will tell

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: 30.29N 85.64W
Re: Fay's Florida Impact Potential [Re: MikeC]
      #81671 - Sat Aug 16 2008 07:31 PM

seems people are getting a little "itchy" too itchy, wait till it starts a turn, which as it has been projected, still hasnt happened, NHC is pretty much by itself on its track everyone else is projecting a more westward track, can anyone explain this??

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