StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Mike just totally confused me,
Are these feeder bands from Fay or something else?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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MikeC
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Quote:
Mike just totally confused me,
Are these feeder bands from Fay or something else?
Not completely positive it was a feeder band, but it seemed like the normal afternoon activity got boosted by some clouds toward Fay. I'm not sure if it was or not a real met would know more. Fay's center is still south of Cuba.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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The mets here just said Fay formed an eye. Any insight to this? Has she formed an eye?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Don't know of any eye formation... but recon just went through on what looks like last pass.. before returning back home.. Pressure now 1002mb.
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°57'N 80°03'W (20.95N 80.05W)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 21:53:30Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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Not even close but she is in the process of building an eyewall as evidenced by microwave imagery on the website. She'll likely not have time enough to close it off, though, before making landfall in Cuba.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Storm Hunter,
Any ideas on if the weather were getting in fort Myers area is a band off of Fay?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Ronn
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No, Fay has not developed an eye yet. The western half of the circulation is largely devoid of convective activity, and without any squalls to wrap tightly around the circulation center, there really can't be an eye as we know it.
An impressive convective band has recently developed just east of the Isle of Youth on the western side of the circulation. If this continues, and more bands develop closer to the center, we could see some intensification overnight, especially with the onset of the diurnal max.
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Lee-Delray
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Real trick is what happens to the eye wall when she crosses Cuba? Does it hold or need time to reform, that will have an effect on intensity.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well 8pm adv. is out.. they went with 50mph winds and 1001mb.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
Did slow DOWN in movement.. now to 10mph..
**by the way... interesting to note... Recon is heading home and Flying over the western part of Cuba.. I thought Gov't planes could not fly over there airspace.. Plane is at 30kft.... see attached*
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 18 2008 12:14 AM)
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Ronn
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South Florida is indeed experiencing the outermost effects of the storm. I believe that this band passed through the Florida Straits earlier today. When it combined with daytime heating over the peninsula, it enhanced the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity.
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Ronn
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If Fay maintains a good speed and doesn't crawl over Cuba, I don't think that Cuba will have a debilitating impact on the storm. The western part of Cuba is not very wide, nor are the mountains very high. Fay will likely weaken slightly as it moves over the island, but the storm will be poised for intensification once again when it emerges off the coast.
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Lee-Delray
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It looks like the 18Z of the has swung further east again. I thought that was usually a reliable model, but for Fay its all over the place; any reason why?
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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yes, it depends on the speed of fay when she goes over and exactly where she goes over. if i remember correctly, only lost like 10 mph in strength when he crossed western cuba. the mountains are on the eastern part of the country.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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WeatherNut
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The convection near the Isle of Youth is pretty far removed from the center though. It looks like the LLC that was exposed much of the day has tucked under that burst of convection just to its east. With the latest pressure drops it looks to be getting better aligned vertically. If it is, the pressure should continue to drop...1001 still really isn't that strong
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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jessiej
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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I have attached the recon data from the site. The last 3 fixes are showing the pressure drop and a mostly stationary storm.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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h2ocean
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The last visible images from earlier did seem to indicate the low was getting tucked under the convective area. The slowdown (almost stall) is also interesting. I wonder if this will affect the model forecasts. The latest shows a shift a little more eastward. This is certainly an interesting system to track with the frequent changes.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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storms usually slow down or stall when they are changing directions. fay was forcast to turn more to the northwest arouond midnight anyway so this might just be a couple hours early. we shall see..
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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engicedave
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But, if I am looking at it right, it's been stationary for about 3 hrs
Even for a turn, and I agree they'll slow or stall for a turn, but three hrs (at least so far) seems a long time and is going to have to change the models significantly.
I didn't see anything about a predicted stall in the 5pm discussion
Right?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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it hasnt been stationary, it just seems like it. it is moving a lot slower but not sitting still.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: North Florida
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Hi everyone, I read y'all intensely but hardly ever post. I am currently poised right on Fay's track at 2 p.m. Wednesday at hurricane status well inland ... but of course, who knows what will happen once she's out over open water. I have been studying the plots all day and am wondering if anyone can clarify which computer models reference other computer models, and which are completely independent. IOW, if several models reference one that has faulty information or unreliable data, all bets are off; they could show Fay's projected track and seem to give the viewer a sense of consensus, when in reality it's a consensus of reference rather than a consensus of independent information compiled and forecasted. Also, is there any one model that has shown a higher percentage of accuracy over the years? I seem to remember in the cases of and that their eventual paths were accurately predicted by the same model, but I can't recall which one that was.
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Go Gators!
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