Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Tropical Storm Ana Moving Away From Main Hawaiian Islands. Watching Invest 93L in Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 108 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3283 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: berrywr]
      #82698 - Fri Aug 22 2008 05:01 AM

I agree. Entering the GOM further south could be very interesting. If she stalls or slows.......

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jumaduke
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: North Florida 29.83N 82.66W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: kromdog]
      #82699 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:20 AM

What might be the effects for north central Florida once Fay's center is out over the GOM? We would be on the N/NE side of the storm at that point, which is historically the strongest side of a TS/Hurricane. Can we expect continual rain bands if she strengthens out there, or will a land component under the N/NE side mean that she won't be able to build up again?

--------------------
Go Gators!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Jumaduke]
      #82701 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:46 AM

A good bit of the Forecast depends on whether Fay moves over the GOM.
Right now Mobile NWS is forecasting up to 10 inches of rain based on the current inland / coastline forecast track.

A track over water would almost certainly change the amount of rain and possibly the wind speeds.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Jumaduke]
      #82702 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:51 AM

the strongest part of the storm is the front right quadrant...on most hurricanes that is the n/ne side because most storm are heading south to north or close to it...Fay heading due west means areas northwest of the center would be the worst, but this is not a hurricane, and is a somewhat lopsided storm...expect rainbands to continue coming off the gulf as Fay heads west....well after the center passes..............amazingly, if Fay follows the NHC track, she will have made 5 landfalls in Florida.......wow, we may never see that again

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 08:25 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lsutigerfan
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: berrywr]
      #82703 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:49 AM

Quote:

Latest track guidance continues to shift southward and westward and upper air continues to build ridge to Fay's north and I think everybody needs to start looking at the real possibility of a new love interest; New Orleans. If this guidance pans out and if Fay can re-develop an inner core we might have her as a hurricane if she stalls in the GOM. I saw nothing in the latest model guidance to believe there's a west-north-west track in her immediate future.




I hope Fay does not come near La. Our local mets here are saying that there is only a 10-20% chance that the storm will continue to move due west and visit us. Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82704 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:01 AM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/FAY.d1-merge.windzoom.html

The book isn't over on Fay...or should we say nightmare.....

who knows...at this point. But oh yeah...it could go to Lousiana.....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82705 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:04 AM

Current track guidance is mostly north of the New Orleans/ Baton Rouge area.
But with this storm who knows.

Here are two links that will update the latest model trends.
However, they are quite cluttered and hard to separate.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
redlevel
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: danielw]
      #82706 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:20 AM

I live in Crystal River and was just wondering what the back side of fay will bring to our area? can anyone shed a little light on this

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: danielw]
      #82709 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:51 AM

I love that we'll be able to follow this all the way with nexrad.

Looks like Fay wants to come out in N Dixie County.

Which would then put it S of Pensacola.

Which would stall it in Lake Pontchartrain.

Moving extra tropical into Mississippi.

There. With a cherry on top. ;}


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 835
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: redlevel]
      #82716 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:21 PM

Noted in recent radar images that Fay is exiting Dixie County. Also the number and intensity of feeders have increased. We had a doozy through here ( Ft. Myers) just a few minutes ago. Is this an indication of intensification? The western rain shield is expanding too it seems along with some fill in of lighter rain south and east. Looks pretty good actually for all its been through.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: redlevel]
      #82717 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:32 PM

Re: danielw

Southwesterly winds off the Gulf. Good moisture source and little resistance to the wind. Watch out for strong bands and squalls throughout Saturday. I'm expecting the same here in the Tampa Bay area.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:35 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
HEADING WSW....HALFWAY OFFSHORE [Re: doug]
      #82718 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:37 PM

This has excellent convection wrapping around the entire storm. the pressures will drop quickly now that she is getting into the gulf...the forward speed is slow enough to get all the gusto out of the water around it...and the high pressure venting on top of her is uninhibited....

suprising to me that no one is posting that this has an awesome chance of making it to hurricane status...

August...GOM = ??

what inhibits this from developing into a major hurricane? I see nothing.....to block it.....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82720 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:43 PM

Quote:

Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?




With Fay being so slow AND so large I think you might want toask whether there is any reason for Fay *not* to come in around the Louisiana coastline. Judging by the fact that the latest NHC probability cone is beginning to look more like a circle I get the impression that the folks NHC do not see anything which would prevent Fay from doing just that. You probably should assume that Fay will affect New Orleans and start making preparation ASAP. My 2cts.

Also, most models seem to have Fay coming your way, check here

Good luck!

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2965
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82721 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:48 PM

The broad structure of fay (It went to this after exiting the eastern Florida coast) should keep Fay from organizing much if it gets back over the Gulf, it may some, but still just a Tropical Storm and rainmaker.

It would have to be over the Gulf an awful long time for it to regenerate a core that would allow rapid intensification, so I don't think that will happen. Even so, Fay should move inland well before New Orleans.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: MikeC]
      #82723 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:55 PM

You're probably right, but Fay is untested in terms of ability to strengthen. She has most of her life either over land or so close to it that she has never gotten a chance to develop fully. She most likely will still have these problems as she won't get far from land in the Gulf either. If she does and the predicted shear doesn't kill her, could be interesting.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82724 - Fri Aug 22 2008 01:11 PM

Duplicate post removed.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:52 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82732 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:14 PM

Just impressed at Fays overall cloud pattern. Fay this has been one interesting storm!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82733 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:25 PM

What do you read from that...is the COC very near the coast...is it starting to twist a bit in the last frames?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Aug 22 2008 02:31 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82734 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:37 PM

Tornado warnings popping all over from JAX to Valdosta

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #82735 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:57 PM

it looks like the forward motion to the west has decreased again...seems to be stuck in northern part of Dixie county with the center near the small area of convection, and hardly moving...with a forward speed of 4 mph, it would take days to reach the fl/al line....this storm has got to be driving the NHC nuts

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 32285

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center