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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
95L Forecast Lounge
      #82681 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:21 PM

Lounge discussion on the wave in the Atlantic currently referred to as 95L.

Wave 95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82694 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:02 AM

the 00Z CMC wants to take either the 94L/95L... is going off the deep end in about 4 days... crazy... don't think i have ever seen the CMC go that strong on a system that has not developed, but most likely will.

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82708 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:44 AM Attachment (268 downloads)

What's going on around 8N in between 94L and 95L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

Lot of confusion with this many suspect systems.
SSD is calling the feature at 18N 40 W as 95L while the models are initializing 2 different areas as 95L - one at 18N 40W the other further south around 13N 38W - see attached model plots

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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:49 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #82711 - Fri Aug 22 2008 11:13 AM

Which is 95L? The floater is focused on the area near 40W; 18N.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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mbjohn
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: 25.86N 80.14W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82728 - Fri Aug 22 2008 01:50 PM

The CMC was doing a similar prediction for what was Fay when it was still east of the Lesser Antilles.

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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82790 - Sat Aug 23 2008 04:44 PM

It could be an upper and lower level circualtion displaced again like fay. This was evident alot in 2005 when Katrina and Rita where seperate systems upper mid lower ect that combined wierd stuff makes me think how the 1935 labor day hurricane came togethor. Not saying this what is happening. just things to think about. I kinda like the idea of 94l sorta go across venesula out into the pacific and 95L takes over and develops on w to wnw course. Then there is the idea 95L and 94L develop 95 L probally tangling that troughy are of the bahamas and southeast us coast. 95L goes out or tangles with carolina north while 94l blufs florida then head through the gulf, or into belize.

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Crusadier95
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: 27.99N 82.55W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82794 - Sat Aug 23 2008 07:06 PM

I'm not completely sure but, I believe wave 95L is located 20.0N 50.0W :?: I'm predicting that it will form into a TS at 20.4N 62.1W but, shouldn't get any stronger then a

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Crusadier95]
      #82983 - Tue Aug 26 2008 11:19 AM

Interesting but all GFS runs want to deepen this, and darned if today it does not look healthier. It is more likely a seaborne system however.
The next one off Cape Verde now has promise too..

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doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #83137 - Wed Aug 27 2008 05:26 PM

Convection has really increased this afternoon, but I can't see a LL circulation yet. With the ULL just to its West, I'd think that it would move NW around the eastern side of that. Also a couple of banding features have formed to its South. The area in the eastern Atlantic has a broad circulation, but has little convection with it. 95L looks nearly stationary today, too.

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Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #83155 - Wed Aug 27 2008 08:40 PM

It looks as if the center of 95L that was being tracked has shifted a bit south of the original area. It looks healthier to me right now than Gustav. The formation further south could mean a more westward track depending on how fast it developes.

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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hwood
Unregistered




Gustav? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #83156 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:15 PM

I am not a expert by any means,but Gustav looks real sick. I don't see how this is a TS at this point. It has been torn to pieces. If anything it looks like the LLC is moving SW or maybe SSW. Anyone else seeing the same thing?

Just doesn'tseem to be moving much. Are there any troughs forecasted to come down after the one that is suppose to turn it northward? Wondering if we could see a substantial change in forecast track?


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gusisgone
Unregistered




Re: Gustav? [Re: hwood]
      #83157 - Wed Aug 27 2008 09:38 PM

it appears that gus has been defeated by the mts of haiti. odd how we go from a potential cat4 to barely a wave. sat clearly backs up this post and this is great news! of course the NHC is officially what we want to listen to but look at poor old gus, hes clearly on his death bed.

This is just about a Grave Yard post. Probably should be...be careful!

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 27 2008 09:49 PM)


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #83168 - Thu Aug 28 2008 02:59 AM

The overnight models for 95L are cause for a bit of concern. Several of them, after depicting movement to the northwest for a few days, show a storm that turns south/southwest and deepens about 200 miles east of the Bahamas by early next week (the CMC, as is often the case, goes bonkers). I was hoping for a fish-spinner with this one, and that certainly could still happen, but it seems like there's a lot of uncertainty. Should be interesting to see what tomorrow brings, as well as the next few days.

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