JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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I still can't a read on Hanna yet... heck I can't believe its even classified as a 'cane. Its still under a ton of shear and basically been blown all the way to Cuba. The further south it goes the more S FL is in the cone once it finally gets its act together. It looks to get really close before heading north but alot still has to happen. Currently there appears to be an upper level low forming off Tampa, I assume this is a spin off from Gustav's outflow... and until this clears out the environment around Hanna will be confusing and messy to say the least!
Ike worries me: lots of open water, due west path for several days  just amazing that the atmosphere can support this many systems but we've seen this situation occur in other busy seasons.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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wow hanna is now stationary as of the 8pm advisory, and it looks to be gaining strength. on the infrared it looks massive. the forecast path from the 5pm to the 8pm nudged just a tad to the west. everyone should note the current rapid intensification of the storm.
Edited by Evan McCone (Tue Sep 02 2008 12:06 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Uh, the 8pm advisory says little change in strength - or movement - is expected over the next few days.
The forecast was not changed - as it hardly ever is - in the intermediate package, either.
Overall looking at the satellite, the size of the hurricane does appear to be growing, but I wouldn't say it's becoming better organized.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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Hanna is a threat to northeastern S.C and southeastern N.C., I'm not sold though that it will only brush them. Hanna never got away from the upperlow that is impeded in the mid-layers. She is rotating around it in a weak flow environment. Eventually a ridge will slide in to her east and lift her NNW towards South Carolina. This is supported by almost all the models and I'm close to the on this. Hanna should be eventually pulled NE across the Outerbanks (or close to it).
Although Ill adjust my forecast later on Tuesday afternoon,I dont see any reason for this to impact Florida outside of swells,rip currents, and possibly a few squalls near the coast. changes their forecast whenever models change. I usually keep a forecast unless I see a good reason to change it. I'm not again sold this will move inland at all though but I would say from near Mrytle Beach-Cape Lookout looks about right. Also again there is a chance it may stay offshore and brush the Outerbanks.
Edited by scottsvb (Tue Sep 02 2008 04:41 AM)
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Evan Johnson
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in reference to hugh's post. the forecasted projected path was changed. is you look at the 5pm and the 8pm next to eachother you will see it was. unless the guy who makes these models had a jittery hand. and the storm went from ssw to stationary. and when i say better organized, i mean the storm is tighter, which it is from almost being torn apart yesterday.
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metwannabe
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The link below is very interesting, it shows all September Cat 1 or 2 hurricanes that have been within 300 miles of Hanna's location. How many actually hit Fl? Of course every TC path is different and due to the differences in the enviroment during each time, my only point is that, just because a TC comes "close" to Florida certainly does not mean landfall in Fl. In fact one could argue that we here in NC have just a much chance of landfall from a storm in that area as anywhere, climatologically speaken.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html#a_topad
With that said, looks as if Hanna has stalled or even attempting a kinda loop, she may be on verge of starting that northward motion.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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conuscaster
Unregistered
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Quote:
The link below is very interesting, it shows all September Cat 1 or 2 hurricanes that have been within 300 miles of Hanna's location. How many actually hit Fl? Of course every TC path is different and due to the differences in the enviroment during each time, my only point is that, just because a TC comes "close" to Florida certainly does not mean landfall in Fl. In fact one could argue that we here in NC have just a much chance of landfall from a storm in that area as anywhere, climatologically speaken.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html#a_topad
With that said, looks as if Hanna has stalled or even attempting a kinda loop, she may be on verge of starting that northward motion.
and your point is? did someone say theres no chance of a carolina landfall? did we all miss that?
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metwannabe
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No. In fact, scottsvb clearly pointed out the possible threat to NC. The point is as has been noted, that all from Fl to NC still have to watch it and I thought the historical info was interesting.
My apologies to the Moderators I would have sent a PM but that option not available with this post, if need to move, I understand.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Edited by metwannabe (Tue Sep 02 2008 01:36 AM)
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JulieTampa
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That graphic about "missing" Florida is fascinating! I would never have predicted that outcome. I'd be interested to see the August storms near that location, too, since it is "almost" August still.
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Evan Johnson
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florida should keep a close eye on this. in my opinion, florida can forget this storm when it stops moving west. already it has defied earlier projections as far as the northernly turn. they projected hanna to make that northernly turn about 2 or 3 days ago and it was projected to already make that turn. this is a crucial time for a no florida impact. lets continue to watch the updates today and hope that it makes that turn already. any more west movement and it might be too late and we might get more then a "graze".
Edited by Evan McCone (Tue Sep 02 2008 12:24 PM)
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John C
Unregistered
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What do you think about IKE pushing Hanna more west as Hannat climbs north? Could be a player the models are not seeing yet.
John
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metwannabe
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I agree, the UKM 06Z model run (although only goes out 48hrs) shows Ike going a little north of Hanna and virtually no movement from Hanna. I'm no expert but seems this could be a real possibility.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Hanna continues to get sheared to death, I'm starting to doubt she'll even survive at this rate. Pretty soon she'll be pushed into Haiti! Once the shear lets up there is a bunch of dry air moving in from the north to block her.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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LoisCane
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I think she'll survive. The Space Center I heard is already preparing for contingency plans and imagine there is no reason to doubt the track. They have been great all year with slowly developing storms. Fay was progged to
intensify down the road and she did... same with others. So, if they feel she will find her groove I trust them.
Upper level shear only lasts so long and Hanna is over some very warm water and will ride the Gulf Stream once she makes her move which needs to be remembered.
It's a year for late bloomers it seems.
Remember 3 people have died from high surf already this weekend as rip currents are mean and fast off of Florida
from Hanna (attributed to Hanna on the local news) and that surf will pick up no matter where she goes so between
boaters and swimmers and beach erosion this storm has the potential for problems even if she doesn't become more than a Cat 1 or 2.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
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Evan, Florida should defidently still keep a eye on Hanna. Hanna will move very close to Florida. Any deviation to the left today by only 2dg will bring her over eastern florida.I stated that before Hanna became a hurricane, she had to get to around 74-75W before her turn back NW. This is a good example why I dont like to give out predictions more than 3 days out. The makes predictions every 6hrs. My path yesterday had Hanna doing a loop and moving NW thru the Bahamas then throwing squalls in close to the coast of Florida then making landfall probably from Myrtle beach-Cape lookout or skiming the Outer Banks, and I'll adjust it this afternoon since its about 3 days or so from Florida and 4 from the Carolinas.
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Evan Johnson
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absolutely scott you are right, it is extremely hard to go so far out. all of us here can only go by speculation and form a general opinion or consensus. i maybe go as far as 24 - 48 hours out because my main tracking tool is that goes-e sattelite. today is a very important day in the track, that west movement really worries me. however, it is having a lot of shear and it looks weaker than last night. it was almost the size of texas last night and yesterday afternoon. so lets watch it today and see where we can all go from there.
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metwannabe
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I have attached a map of model outputs and, if correct, it appears the models have shifted slightly west and are tightly clustered. With the exception of the UKMet which has actually shifted east and has gone from the westen outlier to the eastern. I realize not a lot of confidence in model projections, but it may be a trend and would definately put NE Fl/ SE Ga firmly in the picture.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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weathernet
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Rodney~ Your right on the tendancy for some of the models to be leaning more "westward", or towards the left. I have been anticipating a greater impact on Hanna's structure, as caused by upper shear. Though it did not quite occur yesterday, the mid levels nontheless have been pushing Hanna southward slowly. I had actually strongly considered the possibility of Hanna weakening to a Tropical depression, which may yet occur, and to either continue to be pushed slightly farther to the south. Then, as the lower level BAMS model would more likely indicate, a farther westward motion could ensue due to the motion being more controlled by the lower level flow.
If this were to play out, then we might see a weak, yet still broad structure of a tropical cyclone move more westward to WNW perhaps even close to the N. Cuban coastlne, and "if", and when upper level shear conditions improve by tomm. sometime, then we might see a more NW motion. By this time however, the cone would need be shifted much farther to the south. Remains to be seen, but I see this as a real possiblility. Good news is that this scenario would allow less time for restrengthening before impacting land.
Ike has a good size envolope as well, but I believe that by the 5th day of current forecasts, it will just be nearing the longitude of Hispanola or E. Cuba, and Hanna might just have scooted out and be north of 30N by then. This is when we will have to see how steering will have changed or evolved, as far as whether or not there will be a weakness off the Eastern U.S. coast or not. 
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mcgowanmc
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Quote:
Hanna continues to get sheared to death, I'm starting to doubt she'll even survive at this rate. Pretty soon she'll be pushed into Haiti! Once the shear lets up there is a bunch of dry air moving in from the north to block her.
Just to get this out there. I'm seeing just as much convection S of Haiti as North of the Island.
Any thought to what it would take to get Hanna going South of Haiti?
Is there a zero chance of this?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
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Evan Johnson
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the 11am advisory shifts the projected path once again to the west putting us more in the cone. however the cone has narrowed itself and the computer models are in more agreement. i am feeling preety comfortable now with the projected path. it will take a couple more updates for me to be sure of it though.
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