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Low Pressure east of the Caribbean Islands (93L) looking less impressive today, chances for development are dropping.
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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84626 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:19 PM

Quote:

Looks like Ike is trying to make a comback if he manages to all, or most, of his center over water:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html




If you turn the tracking points on that WV image also, you can see that Ike is still right on the projected path and is actually going to arrive at his 0000 UTC projected location earlier than they had predicted.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84627 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:29 PM

The GFDL and at times the UKMET has been doing pretty good with Ike, so take a look at those. Now with that said - every single time the track updates its SW of where the NHC projected. Just the other day they had the storm tracking thru the Keys now its SOUTH of Cuba. So at this point whatever they put up as a track I bet its goes south of that. Amazing how they can be right on the money with Gustav at 5 days, yet so far off with this storm. Also goes to show why you need to watch these things and not panic (or relax) just because you are (or are NOT) in the 5 day cone... just too many variables that far out to forecast landfall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: JMII]
      #84628 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:35 PM

Well landfall is just now 5 days out...so I guess we'll find out how accurate they are by if this sticks with Houston, or goes elsewhere.

Anyone have any input on how the flare up of convection in the SW GOM will affect Ike, if any at all?

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Sep 08 2008 04:45 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Palm City, Florida 13.46N 144.74E
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size [Re: EBinTX]
      #84632 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:48 PM Attachment (134 downloads)

Quote:

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.




Ike's cloud tops have warmed due to the pass over land He still has plenty of energy and his footprint is huge as evidenced by this microwave pass. Once he is back over warm open water and can draw from all quadrants one can only speculate on intensity, only it won't be from lack of structure. I personally think factors regarding intensity now almost trump landfall position because Ike could potentially be the strongest storm yet this year.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Ike Could Grow In Size [Re: craigm]
      #84633 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I've been watching both Cuban radar and various sat loops on and off through the day. It appears that Ike is still tracking due west along 21.2 °. From both radar, and the visible and water vapor sat loops it sure looks like Ike has lost most of its density, and the rain bands have certainly lost intensity through the day. The IR loop appears very broken. It looks like there is still good circulation, but nowhere near as much within the storm. I would think a lot of energy has been lost.




Ike's cloud tops have warmed due to the pass over land He still has plenty of energy and his footprint is huge as evidenced by this microwave pass. Once he is back over warm open water and can draw from all quadrants one can only speculate on intensity, only it won't be from lack of structure. I personally think factors regarding intensity now almost trump landfall position because Ike could potentially be the strongest storm yet this year.




I definitely agree with you on that since Ike has taken the more southern route over water along the coast instead of over land. The latest IR shows a flare up of convection on the "half" of the eye that is over water right now, this should atleast keep Ike from weakening much further until he can pass over Cuba.

The other thing to watch for is that the data that the NHC will be using in their 5pm EDT update can be a little deceiving since as far as intensity is concerned because some of it will be from the recon data that came in about 2 hours ago.


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84638 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:28 PM

Looks like Ike has begun that NW movement, just off the south coast, and am beginning to see increasing convection in the IR.

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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84643 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:56 PM

Long time lurker who occasionally chimes in for an answer or understanding. The flair up in the BOC looks as though it maybe being picked up by the trough in the Plains. Would this feature tagging along for a ride on the trough affect the ridge creating a greater weakness in it?
Love this site, have learned so much from all of you.

--------------------
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: Daytonaman]
      #84647 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:07 PM

Well if this movement is really N/W and the storm tracks into cuba i would have to say the models are off right now cause they projected this strom to stay in the water longer.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84648 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:13 PM

actually looking at the IR loop from here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

and turning on the tracking points, the eye is currently right underneath one of the tracking points. And it got there about an hour and a half too early as well.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84649 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:17 PM

Its making landfall right now again

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84652 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:29 PM

not trying to disagree with you necessarily, but I don't see it coming on land again yet...I guess I'll have to wait and see what the overall movement trend is.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:33 PM)


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84656 - Mon Sep 08 2008 08:19 PM

By vis & short wave IR sat images and radar I have the coastline splitting the center. The models are increasingly looking like somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville. Unless the NHC adjusts the forecast track before Wednesday, I'll come into the 36 hour cone on the dirty side, which will create local mayhem.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84657 - Mon Sep 08 2008 08:29 PM

This may or may not be the same situation, but I remember with Gustav, just a little while before he came across the western end of Cuba, the models started showing a shift in track a little more to the west (western LA/East Texas area) but the NHC was hesitant to shift their track. They kept saying in the forecast discussions that they were keeping their track to the East of the consensus. Now the models are showing a little further South on some of them, and the NHC only slightly moved their track and is saying they are keeping their track to the north side of the consensus...I guess we'll see after Ike crosses Western Cuba if the NHC keeps their track steady and if the models shift back.

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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: hogrunr]
      #84662 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:00 PM

All the key models have moved landfall south. The current NHC forecast track is one of the northernmost. My guess is that either at the 11 pm update tonight or the 5 AM tomorrow they nudge the landfall down to Corpus Christi.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84663 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:09 PM

Ike has taken a slight westerly jog, he's almost right back on track with the NHC path and more importantly, the entire eye is back over water.

I think the timing with the edge of the high pressure center that is going to be over the Western GOM and the trough that will be coming down from the US is going to determine if Ike goes straight into TX or has a N/NW turn before landfall.


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84664 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:11 PM

While there is no arguing that the models have shifted a bit southward. We should not be so quick as to second guess the preofessionals at the NHC. They have done and I'm sure will continue to do, a bang up job given the incredibly difficult and intricate nature(s) of their job(s).

Let's all remember how many here were saying they didn't see the "west" component to Gustav when he was less than 150 miles off shore...and sure as "poo" what happened?? He went west and spared NOLA (to the detriment of others) a direct hit.

Let's all not be so quick to be or pretend to be anything more than what we are.....weather enthusiasts.

(EBinTX...this was not directed at you. You were just the last person to post when I hit respond..but I see someone's got in before mine. So please, don't think this post was directed at you.)

Edited by native (Mon Sep 08 2008 10:13 PM)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: native]
      #84665 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:16 PM

And in all fairness....a couple of days ago I said I was not sold on the more southerly track (south of cuba track) and...well looky what happened. See what I get for second guessing the professionals?? A mouth full of foot!

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rayboat
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Jupiter Fl. 26.94N 80.14W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: native]
      #84666 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:32 PM

http://files.wtoc.com/weather/satellite/fy1d/rgba_1.jpg

IKE @ 6:05 pm courtesy of WTOC channel 11 Savanna GA. downloaded from Peoples Republic of China Fengyun(Wind and Cloud) 1D satellite. Pretty awesome!!


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EBinTX
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 27
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.05N 95.45W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: native]
      #84670 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:59 AM

Quote:

While there is no arguing that the models have shifted a bit southward. We should not be so quick as to second guess the preofessionals at the NHC. They have done and I'm sure will continue to do, a bang up job given the incredibly difficult and intricate nature(s) of their job(s).
. . .

(EBinTX...this was not directed at you. You were just the last person to post when I hit respond..but I see someone's got in before mine. So please, don't think this post was directed at you.)



Second guessing the pro's is at least half the fun of being an enthusiast.

And I will agree, they do incredibly well at a job I would not want. No matter what they do they will have at least a million people telling them afterwards they did it wrong.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: The NHC forecast is only good for 3 day, after 72 hrs a sharp short wave will pick IKE up [Re: EBinTX]
      #84678 - Tue Sep 09 2008 08:49 AM

The 12Z updates are out for several of the models, and the general consensus move was northward. Now the NHC (who had been on the northern side of the consensus) is on the southern side. We'll see if this trend continues or not.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=09&av=2008998


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