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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Docster
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: 27.07N 82.41W
Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin
      #84177 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:49 PM

What Spaghetti Model(s) "tools" do you follow, based on your "experience(s)", or the top 5 Spaghetti models you place your confidence in?


Edited by Docster (Fri Sep 05 2008 08:12 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin [Re: Docster]
      #84198 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:41 PM

There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.

Take care,
Andy


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin [Re: Docster]
      #84207 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:15 PM

Quote:


What Spaghetti Model(s) "tools" do you follow, based on your "experience(s)", or the top 5 Spaghetti models you place your confidence in?




The short answer is none, some, all, and very few some of the time.

If you are trying to reinvent the wheel and out-forecast the NHC (we all do it!) it can be a learning experience, and fun. But if you are merely trying to make your hurricane preparedness plans around models, my advice is always DON'T! Go with the official forecasts from the NHC, your local National Weather Service, the main page here on CFHC, and some of the reputable commercial weather forecasting services only.. some of these could be your better local TV mets, and I always highly recommend TWC. When it comes to forecasting and explaining hurricanes, Dr. Lyons is pretty hard to beat.


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Docster
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: 27.07N 82.41W
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin [Re: weathernet]
      #84216 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:21 PM

Quote:

There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.

Take care,
Andy





Thanks, your reply it was very helpful to me. I got to much Spaghetti (information) with so little Meat Sauce (time) to ponder over it....

Regards,
Doc
(who's still interested in hearing other opinions)


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Docster
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: 27.07N 82.41W
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin [Re: cieldumort]
      #84219 - Fri Sep 05 2008 11:26 PM

Indeed!

Thanks for your reply.

Regards,

Doc


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Neverwinter
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: PA
Re: Spaghetti" Model Plots for the Atlantic Basin [Re: weathernet]
      #84776 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:21 AM

Quote:

There are just so many different models, and even here there is some subjectivity in which models are most preferred. Those that I find to be the most useful and those that I believe NHC has greatest faith in, include GFS, UK, EURO, BAMD, GFDL, HWRF. Not sure if all of these are displayed on each spagetti plot map. EURO is typically only found at their site alone. A few that I would almost always ignore include CMC, CLP, LBAR, and BAMS. Without going into an extensive explanation, I hope this helps.

Take care,
Andy




Very nice info! And I think it can also be based on your experience with that model?

--------------------
Hurricane Ike


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ike jogging North? [Re: Neverwinter]
      #84777 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:36 AM

This is probably the best place for this post, but the last frame of satellite pictures I've seen from several different sources gave me the impression that IKE is north and east of the last fix a bit.
Anybody else seeing that? I think it must be an illusion as there does not seem to be any reason for that to be occurring as a trend.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ike jogging North? [Re: doug]
      #84780 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:45 AM

Take it back! not happenning. Sorry

--------------------
doug


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