Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Wet & Windy Gulf of Mexico as Old #98L Remains a Player. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 56 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3231 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
45.5N 47.1W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ne at 44 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest
      #84237 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:12 AM

8PM Update

Ike looks to be taking the southerly route, back up to Category 4 strength, and still moving west southwest, it will likely make landfall in eastern Cuba and then eventually enter the Gulf, which means it is possible areas that Gustav hit will be affected once again. But the entire Gulf coast will want to watch it. Intensity wise, it is also uncertain how much it will be based on land interactions.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Hanna is inland over North Carolina after making landfall at the NC/SC border, and it is racing North Northeast right now at 22MPH. It will affect Virginia and the coastal Northeast US before moving out to sea.

Hurricane Ike's forecast has moved south, perhaps skirting the northern coast of Cuba, or actually crossing Cuba before winding up in the Gulf. Which would unfortunately be another land falling hurricane on Cuba this year.

Since Ike is already a bit further south than projected, this looks the most likely situation. Which is better news for folks in Florida and the Keys, but the all clear is not ready yet.



None of the widely used tropical forecasting models have it crossing anywhere in Florida now, at least from the east or south side. It's too early to determine what will occur in the Gulf, although it is likely to wind up in the Central to Eastern Gulf next week, possibly close to Florida West coast, as the GFDL shows this morning, or further west in the Gulf.


Parts of Florida remain in the cone, so it is worth keeping an eye on, but the concern for the east coast of Florida is much much less than a day ago. And it will likely be close enough to the keys to cause watches or warnings and some Ike effects could be felt there.

Josephine was torn apart by shear and now has dissipated, and is no longer being tracked.

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Wilmington, NC
Morehead City, NC
Hampton Roads Area of Virginia
Washington, DC
Philadelphia, PA

Emergency Management:
North Carolina Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management

Ike Related:

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Jacksonville Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Wakefield/ Norfolk/ VA Beach, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Mount Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Google Plot of Hanna, Ike, and Josephine

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

Hanna Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hanna


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hanna

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hanna
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hanna -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Ike Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ike


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ike (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ike (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ike

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ike
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ike -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Josephine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Josephine


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Josephine (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Josephine (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Josephine

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Josephine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Josephine -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: MikeC]
      #84239 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:23 AM

latest GFDL has a major hurricane running up the west coast of FL...models continue to bounce east and west...there are too many variables right now 5 days out..a weak trough means Ike goes towards the central Gulf, a strong one puts the west coast of the peninsula in play...Ikes speed over the next 2 days is critical....everyone from the keys to TX need to pay attention.....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: pcola]
      #84243 - Sat Sep 06 2008 08:59 AM

It's very important that everyone in the CONE pay close attention.Ike is still way to the SE of Florida,many things can happen.There is a reason why they put out a cone,and this cone covers almost 700 miles by day 5.This is a good time to remember Charlie.The black line had Charlie going into Tampa,but it took a sharp right turn and slammed Punta Gorta.Punta Gorta WAS in the cone.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: MikeC]
      #84246 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

IKE...
A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECMWF LOOKING AT POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOWS
A TYPICAL HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO TILTED/SHALLOW AT INITIALIZATION...WHICH DOES NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY EVEN 108 HOURS INTO ITS FORECAST. THIS DEPTH PROBLEM COULD IMPACT ITS TRACK LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

IKE...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SEEN DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST 36 HOURS OF RUNS...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIAL DEPTH NOTED IN THE INITIALIZATION SECTION ABOVE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

IKE...
THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD BE PREFERRED DUE TO
ITS BETTER CONTINUITY AND THE GFS/NAM TRENDS TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIALIZATION THAT COULD BE CONTAMINATING ITS FORECAST SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER RENDITION OF THE 00Z CANADIAN...OR NORTHWARD VERSION OF THE FS/ECMWF...WOULD BE MOST SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING NHC FORECAST


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: pcola]
      #84247 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:06 AM

Very interesting! The shear must have been relaxed quite a lot. The outflow has improved quite much and the convection is much stronger, especially in the northwestern half. The last microwave pass has revealed the surprise: Ike has formed a complete second outer wall and there is obviously the first eyewall replacement cycle starting! So at least no rapid intensification to expect in the face of the improved conditions!
And what becomes more and more obvious: Ike will make a first landfall in about 24 hours on Cuba. The question is: Will it stay close to oder over the northern coast or will it move for a long time more in the middle of Cuba. So weakening will be more or less significant, but modells also still show in any case a reintensification to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Conditions should be quite good for this.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GLT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: pcola]
      #84248 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:09 AM

Could you post a link to that GFDL run please?

I assume the "major hurricane" is Ike?

I'm looking at Skeetobite and I don't see that at all - GFDL point towards the panhandle for IKE - do you have a newer version?

Post #3

I'm in the cone - should I evacuate now?

Thanks,

GLT


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models [Re: GLT]
      #84249 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:15 AM

Based on the Model Discussion.
If the GFDL is run off of the GFS. And the GFS is having trouble initialising a CAT 3 Hurricane.
Then one could assume the GFDL might be a tad off in any direction.

Dirty data in equals dirty data out.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl 27.03N 82.19W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: GLT]
      #84250 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:16 AM

Quote:

Could you post a link to that GFDL run please?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL


What's keeping Ike to the south? Is there a image that shows this?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GLT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: smorse22]
      #84253 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:27 AM

That appears to be a link to HANNA runiing up the EAST US coast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl 27.03N 82.19W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: GLT]
      #84255 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:31 AM

Click on storm 9 on top of the page

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #84256 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:32 AM

Quote:

Based on the Model Discussion.
If the GFDL is run off of the GFS. And the GFS is having trouble initialising a CAT 3 Hurricane.
Then one could assume the GFDL might be a tad off in any direction.

Dirty data in equals dirty data out.




A G-IV {up level air analysis) mission would be very helpful with all of the model runs. The greater the data and the better the data the better the models run.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GLT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: smorse22]
      #84258 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:38 AM

OK - I see - looking on storm 9 on the SFWMD mud page and then the GFDL track (thanks - looks a little newer than Skeetobite) - yep it's now a little close to Tampa later - way too scary!!

Thanks again,

GLT

EDIT: It should be noted that the GFDL is by FAR the closest to Tampa than ANY other model - probably for the good reasons posted above.

Edited by GLT (Sat Sep 06 2008 09:46 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl 27.03N 82.19W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: GLT]
      #84261 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:04 AM

The weather channels Dr. Steve Lyons was talking about this being a Fl event from the panhandle along the west coast of florida. They're are expecting it to turn to the right once in the gulf because of a trough. Better keep a eye on this one. I don't want to see another Charley!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: MikeC]
      #84262 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:11 AM

The steering current are already starting to change to a move zonal flow and relax in intensity see 9 Hours TC Previous Steering Layer : 300-850 hPa TC MSLP : 950-969 hPa 0200

CIMSS

Latest Available
Steering Layer : 300-850 hPa
TC MSLP : 950-969 hPa

CIMSS

This is time sensitive and will update in 3 hours


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: smorse22]
      #84263 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:15 AM

Lyons is saying it's a west coast of Florida event, when NONE of the models are pointing toward the west coast of Florida right now? Interesting. I'd say Texas is just as likely as the west coast of Florida right now, given the model trends toward the west.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #84264 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:16 AM

I have a question and I am not sure where to post it. Why would the NHC put an Atlantic floater on a system that is in the Pacific?? They have two floaters on Invest 99E. I have never seen them do that before.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Hugh]
      #84268 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:46 AM

Quote:

Lyons is saying it's a west coast of Florida event, when NONE of the models are pointing toward the west coast of Florida right now? Interesting. I'd say Texas is just as likely as the west coast of Florida right now, given the model trends toward the west.




Here is a link to some more recent model runs. They appear to be shifting back towards the Florida peninsula.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/index.ph...=tropsys640x480,tropimap_all&pn=1&ptm=&alt=tropinvestmap


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: kromdog]
      #84269 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:56 AM

Read the NHC 11:00 AM Discussion, they say it is too early to tell if the storm will turn north and parallel the western Florida coast. Dr Lyons as many keep saying Florida, but they should be saying The Keys, extreme southern Florida and possibly the west coast of Florida.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #84273 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:03 AM

Ok Dr Lyons could be right about a western florida event, but he just speculated and thats all anything is after 3 days out. First off the 6z run shifted east. We need consistant runs showing the same thing and with models converging on a specific area. Now with that said, models are good (especially the GFDL up to 72hrs), for up to 120hrs is a basic idea and can change( as told in the days 4,5 uncertainty cone). After 120hrs just dont even bother really unless you just want to see where it might go.(For Entertainment).

So by saying all this, just watch for consistancy and converging of the models up to 72hrs. Days 4,5 have a better chance of changing, and after that, dont take it for granted.!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: scottsvb]
      #84274 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:08 AM

Why do they even bother using the CLP5 model? That thing ALWAYS hooks hard to the right in the early runs. It's done it for pretty much every storm this season.

From the growing trend I'm seeing on most of the models as well as the NHC's official track, I'm still thinking that LA/AL/MI and even parts of TX should be keeping a really close eye on this thing. Every series of runs lately has been pulling it farther away from the west Fl coast (Keys are still well into the danger zone, however) and toward the Gulf Coast.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 35522

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center