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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2964
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued
      #84819 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:14 PM

1PM CDT Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Morgan City, LA to Baffin Bay, Texas, hurricane conditions could reach those areas by late tomorrow night.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, and a Hurricane Watch remains there as well.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from East of Morgan City to the Mississippi Alabama border.

It appears the largest threat from Ike will be the storm surge.

The entirety of Galveston Island is under a mandatory evacuation, coastal communities along the upper Texas coast will very likely be severely affected by surge.

Another area, that may be associated with the remnants of Josephine is now being watched northeast of the Leeward Islands as 91L.

6:45AM CDT Update
From Recon reports it appears the eyewall replacement cycle has begun on Ike. This means that once this

The track is similar to what last night was, and most models are in line.



More to come later today...


10 PM CDT Update
New Track puts Ike near or just north Freeport Texas, and the worst the surge over Galveston area Saturday morning with 125MPH winds (Strength may be higher or lower). Surge will be large, winds north will be large, up to College Station possibly could get Hurricane Force winds.

More to come tomorrow.


6:45PM CDT Update

Ike's pressure continues to drop, rapidly, even though the overall windspeed has not caught up. Ike is still a massive storm that is rapidly gaining strength. Those in the path should follow evacuation orders and other information from local officials.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from the mouth of the Mississippi river westward to Cameron, LA. Tropical Storm conditions could be felt there as early 24 hours from now.

Hurricane Watches are up west of Cameron, LA into Texas down to Port Mansfield. This means that Hurricane Conditions are possible in those areas within 36 hours.

Ike is a huge system, much larger than usual wind field, and much larger area of storm surge than you would normally see in the Gulf. Hurricane force winds extend an amazing 90 miles away from the center, along with Tropical Storm force winds around 210 Miles from the center. A very large area could be affected by Ike. Storm Surge is also very large, and could affect a large area of coastline.

Ike is unusual in a number of ways, double eye features, low pressure, with extended hurricane force winds, surface winds found higher than flight level winds, and surface centers matching up perfectly with flight level centers, and the pressure continues to fall. Prepare for the unexpected.



If you are in an evacuation area in Texas, I'd strongly suggest taking up that advice.

Hurricane Ike is a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf, it's large size will keep it from strengthening too much, but I suspect it still will. The forecast is still a Category 4 storm. Because of its size it will likely still be hurricane force well inland, so places such as Austin and inland Texas may be receiving outages and other wind issues.

The story with Ike will be the large area of high winds and surge, and points east and north of the landfall may get hurricane conditions a good way from the Center. Even parts of Florida have seen some of the outer activity of Ike today in some strong outer bands that have moved through.

The track still suggests it making landfall north of Corpus Christi.

The low pressure area that are the remains of Josephine has come back to life today, and may have to be watched. They are currently located northeast of the Leeward Islands.

More to Come soon...

Mark Sudduth and my friend Mike Watkins are out in the HIRT team vehicle studying Hurricane Ike near Galveston, Visit and see the info at Hurricanetrack.com You can see where they are located now at our Ike Google Map

Let us know Ike Conditions in your area

Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)

Hurricane City Live Audio Stream
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (From Hurricane City)


Texas Emergency Management Reports

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX


Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management

Houston Traffic Cams

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Local Media/Television
Multiple Affiliate TV Coverage (TV Wall of local coverage in Houston - Mute individual videos to get audio for just one.)
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Houson Fox 26

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Corpus Christi Caller-Times

Color Sat of Gulf (Animation)

Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports


flhurricae Webcam recordings (will be turned on/off frequency adjusted as needed):

Spot Cam/Galveston Spot Beach Cam - Commodore Cam - Commodore Surf Cam/Galveston - Palacios Bay Cam
(Let us know if you know of other good views)


Ike Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ike


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ike (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ike (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ike

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ike
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ike -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84821 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:31 PM

Vortex Recon: 952mb

That is a drop of 6mb in the last hour.

--

URNT12 KNHC 102119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/21:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 28 min N
086 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2699 m
D. NA kt
E. 0NA deg 000 nm
F. 214 deg 080 kt
G. 129 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/10/8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68KT NW QUAD 20:59:30Z
SFC CENTER COLOCATED WITH FL CENTER

--

Also, HDOB from the inbound NOAA plane found TS force winds almost 240 miles from the center, measured by SFMR. No telling if they extend out further on other paths.

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 05:36 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2964
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84822 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:39 PM

Ike has transformed into something incredibly odd since crossing Cuba. I can't recall anything like it since I've been watching these things. If anyone else has a good example of something similar to Ike, please let me know.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84823 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:43 PM

The previous vortex message had a pressure of 958 mb, but HDOBs at the time it was taken indicated something closer to 955 mb. The recent drop to 952 mb probably wasn't as dramatic as 6 mb in 2 hours, but still an impressive drop. The most vigorous convection right now seems to be in the inner core and in the inner most of the outer bands, so some consolidation may be occurring. Flight-level winds around the inner core are still relatively weak, though the most recent Ike discussion mentioned that dropsondes indicated stronger winds closer to the surface in the inner core.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84824 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:47 PM

Yes, realy incredibly odd. Pressure down to 952 hPa and still this weak center. Ike is approaching his deepest pressure before reaching Kuba, as he had been a cat. 4 and now it´s barely a cat.2.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84825 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:48 PM

Ike is sitting right over the Loop Current.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008253go.jpg

Last recon positioned it at about 24.5N 86W - that's the SE half of the loop current in the above linked graphic.


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david2
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84827 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:08 PM

local mets here in Dallas say to expect possible 50mph sustained winds with possible gust to 70 if Ike keeps his track into North Texas

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 245
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: flahurricane]
      #84829 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:25 PM

We are thinking about you Texas and pray everyone is preparing! I have a small tip from my conversations with homeowners following Hurricane Andrew when we were down there repairing homes. Put your important documents and belongings (that will fit) in your dishwasher if you are not evacuating with them.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 245
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84833 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:39 PM

Quote:

Ike has transformed into something incredibly odd since crossing Cuba. I can't recall anything like it since I've been watching these things. If anyone else has a good example of something similar to Ike, please let me know.



Couldn't agree more. Storms are definately larger in this cycle (multi decadal). I think at some point as Ike moves further west the entire Gulf will be covered by his outflow. We are still feeling and seeing the energy on the east coast of Florida and we are 450 miles away.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84836 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:00 PM

Quote:

Yes, realy incredibly odd. Pressure down to 952 hPa and still this weak center. Ike is approaching his deepest pressure before reaching Kuba, as he had been a cat. 4 and now it´s barely a cat.2.




I was very struck by that too. 952 MB seems veryvery low for a 100 MPH storm.
And it's getting larger, unreal.


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #84837 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:11 PM

Quote:

Channel 9 (ABC) Orlando reporting a tornado touch down in area of Kissimee. Some really nasty storms coming through Central Florida from Ike's bands this evening...




On the visible floater loop you can see the thunderstorm blow up over Orlando that is causing the problems. This is way far away from the center which shows the overall impact of these systems.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2964
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: weather999]
      #84838 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:12 PM

Last recon detail report had 946mb in it, I hope that's a misread.

230600 2436N 08612W 6969 02697 9468 +167 +060 292011 016 999 999 03
230630 2438N 08611W 6969 02696 9462 +170 +060 138003 009 999 999 03
230700 2440N 08611W 6965 02706 9488 +162 +058 126012 019 999 999 03


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: weather999]
      #84839 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:13 PM

NOAA2 / Mission 22 has found 100kt FL winds 95 miles from the center with SFMR surface winds maxing around 70kts. These are in an swath of 85+kt FL winds near 24.8333N 84.7167W.

It also detected 90+kt FL winds in an area 125 mile from the center with SFMR surface winds maxing around 65kts near 25.8667N 84.85W.

This is an incredible wind field.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84840 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:25 PM

Eyewall dropsonde by AF303:

953mb eyewall surface pressure.
83kt eyewall surface winds.

This drop is in the north portion of the eyewall.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ar...&mission=20


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84841 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:28 PM

Based on the current recon info, I'd say this storm could be a historical player. All of the pieces are starting to fall into place...not much to stop the outcome.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84842 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:30 PM

Eye: 947mb

URNT12 KNHC 102327
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/23:06:20Z
B. 24 deg 37 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2660 m
D. 50 kt
E. 227 deg 091 nm
F. 318 deg 068 kt
G. 228 deg 035 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 11 C/ 3047 m
J. 17 C/ 3045 m

K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8

N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 18
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 85KT NE QUAD 23:23:00Z


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84845 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:39 PM

HDOBs are suggesting the presence of a third (or however many there are now) wind maximum at a radius of about 30-40 miles, in between the inner core and the main outer wind max. If this truly is another wind max, it may signal an eventual eyewall replacement for the inner core, though it's not clear what kind of effect that might have on the outer wind max.

Winds also seem to be coming up near the inner core. Pressure has been dropping pretty rapidly, but the response so far seems to be an increase in wind speed in multiple areas of the circulation, rather then being focused in one particular location.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84847 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:45 PM

How can that be physically possible? Wouldn't the pressure drop focus the winds in 1 area and not 3 distinct areas??? 11mb drop since 5pm advisory...wow

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84848 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:46 PM

NOAA's HDOBs: 944.6mb

Echoing Mike's, I hope it's not true, only 16 minutes after the 947mb dropsonde reading.

232200 2442N 08612W 7202 02419 9462 +192 +159 109037 045 053 003 00
232230 2440N 08613W 7192 02420 9446 +196 +158 116008 017 029 001 00
232300 2438N 08614W 7187 02436 9468 +181 +162 306013 018 028 003 03
232330 2436N 08615W 7195 02445 9497 +171 +170 309037 047 050 010 00


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84849 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:22 PM

To answer MikeC's question above, I do not remember a storm evolving in quite the way that Ike has. The strangest thing to me is the presence of the very small, compact inner eyewall in the middle of such a huge, broad circulation. It is like a storm within a storm.

The 7PM CDT advisory has the radius of hurricane-force winds up to 115 miles.


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