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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Raymond]
      #84890 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:39 AM

From the Lake Charles NWS Forecast Discussion:

...BUOY DATA IN THE GULF INDICATES THE 34KT WIND RADII IS VERY LARGE
WITH IKE AND EXTENDS OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE EYE. THIS GREAT EXPANSE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCHES FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATER TODAY. HIGHLY
CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL STORM SURGE AS IKE'S LARGE WIND FIELD
AND LENGTHY TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE ALONG OUR COAST.


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: danielw]
      #84892 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 AM

Hurricane warnings are now up from Baffin Bay to Morgan City , LA with TS warnings south to Brownsville TX

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: HCW]
      #84893 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:36 AM

And Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended EASTward to the Coastal Waters off of Pensacola,FL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

.AT 800 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH OF THE
WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 10:45 AM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: danielw]
      #84894 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:11 AM

This is shocking

Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 120 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: HCW]
      #84895 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:46 AM

amazing Ike's being felt here in pensacola...tides are way abouve average with warer on some coastal roads, and water from Pensacola Bay into some of the bayside parks..higher than I have seen in some storms that were much closer

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Ike size [Re: HCW]
      #84896 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:50 AM

I can't think of a storm where there were watches and warnings from Pensacola to Brownsville... at the same time,

It's hard to grasp the shear size of that!

Is Ike forecast to increase in size? Or will he get smaller if he ever spins up more?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3483
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ike size [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84898 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:12 PM

I just heard an update for Jackson County, MS with an approaching squall line moving to the NW at 57 mph.

If the rain in that doesn't get you the wind will.!!!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike size [Re: danielw]
      #84900 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:21 PM

Ike will be passing very close to Gulf buoy 42001 over the next several hours. Currently the buoy is about 70 miles WNW of the center of Ike (in the weakest part of the storm) is reporting sustained winds of 43 kts with gusts to 52 kts, along with 28 foot wave heights. There is also a ship report of sustained 52 kt winds about 150 miles north of the center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike size [Re: danielw]
      #84901 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:28 PM

52 kt flight level wind just at the coast near Biloxi for the new AirForce-mission!

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike size [Re: Raymond]
      #84906 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:44 PM

It's a little tough to tell what is going on inside of Ike right now. It looks like part of the area inside the would-be outer eyewall has cleared out, but at least part of the inner eyewall is still firing up convection. Also, the convection is currently asymmetric with the western side much weaker looking overall than the eastern side. Hopefully the next recon mission can shed some light on what is going on.

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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
Ike vs. Katrina [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84908 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:58 PM

This is very disturbing from Dr. Masters:

"Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years."

With that...could we conclude we ain't seen nuttin yet? hope not.....but they are evacuating all of Galveston...


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike size [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84909 - Thu Sep 11 2008 01:21 PM

It loks like, that the inner wall is detoriating. We`ll know more soon!
edit: The pressure gradient is very flat in the center and the central pressure is raising. Obviously an ERC is taking place!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 01:35 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1113
Loc: fl
Re: Ike size [Re: Raymond]
      #84910 - Thu Sep 11 2008 01:52 PM

I really dont see anything where IKE is more than a strong Cat 1 with winds 85-90mph. I think the HWRF has the right scale, maybe a Cat 2 @ landfall in 36-42hrs north of Corpus Christi.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike size [Re: scottsvb]
      #84911 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:02 PM

I agree, Ike is only a cat. 1. and I don´t see much chances for change of the overall structure of the storm, even if there is quite some time for change and even if an ERC takes place soon! Therefore I think, that we don´t see a landfall of a Major Hurricane!
There seem to be some signs for a ERC, as mentioned in my post above, but there is no confirmation in the vortex data message. They only talk about an eye open to the NW with a diameter of 8 nm.


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txcntrygrl
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: south texas
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84912 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:03 PM

I do not know much about how all of this is predicted. I am curious to know if there are any changes in that trough could the storm continue to go west and possibly enter places like Corpus Christi or the Rockport area?

Also will any of those locations experience hurricane strength winds even if the storm doesn't hit there?

Oh and can someone explain what can happen if there are two eye walls? Is that possible?

Edited by txcntrygrl (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:04 PM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: txcntrygrl]
      #84914 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:09 PM

Nothing is impossible, but it´s quite unlikely. that Ike makes landfall around Corpus Christy. For the first time the modells are in very good agreement about an landfall just a bit SW of the Houston-Galveston area.
For concentric multiple eyewalls and ERC`s read for instance here: ERC

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:13 PM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 328
Loc: Orlando, FL
Wave heights [Re: Raymond]
      #84918 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:36 PM

I'm not a met so I can't properly interpret this work from OceanWeather but it sure looks like three states are going to be impacted by the storm surge. And I have to wonder reading the chart if what I see (35' - 40' wave heights at the center) is accurate. I went through Donna in Naples as a kid and I don't remember 35' wave heights.

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txcntrygrl
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: south texas
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84919 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:38 PM

If that front fizzles out or ends up going through and the storm is still taking its sweet time moving nwn could that change its path somewhat? I just want to make sure we are completely prepared. We live an hour inland from Corpus Christi and we boarded our home already.

On that Skeetobite map I have always depended on that darker green spaghetti strip because for the last several hurricanes it has come to be the closest in pointing out where these storms will hit.


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: txcntrygrl]
      #84921 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:46 PM

I know the Visible Loop can be deceiving, but it almost looks like Ike is following closer to the northern boundary of the cone than the middle. Is it possible that he is showing signs of beginning to make the turn?

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Geoff]
      #84922 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:52 PM

At least between the last two center fixes ( a three hour period) it moved more or less straight NW. But this may be due to the complex dynamics occuring in the core currently. We`ll see!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:52 PM)


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