LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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One of my real concerns is for places like Sabine Pass who have an illusion of safety. Flooding is widespread.
It may be more historic and mesmerizing on the live feeds on the front page (which I was watching at work) but it is going to happen in places without the press there to show and local agencies really have to get out the word in their towns.
Would be nice for some old timers from these places to post info if they have any... picture from Galveston downtown helped.
Water rides far in advance of the storm in this area... not something that happens as much in South Florida.
The way the beach and the sea slope off shore is a big issue in Galveston and that part of the world.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Long range radar out of both Lake Charles and Houston indicates that Ike is attempting to form an eyewall, The would-be eyewall is still made up of various banding features at this point, but it is looking more organized that it did earlier.
Storm surge in excess of 8 feet has already been reported around Cameron, LA and in the Galveston area.
edit: Storm surge of 8.3 feet has also been recently reported at Sabine Pass.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Sep 12 2008 06:29 PM)
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threw-er-back
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc:
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http://www.foxnews.com/video2/live.html?chanId=2
Live feed from Galveston
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Lurking to learn
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Live feed link is already on the main page, but you can see all the local news broadcast at once here: http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html
Ike does look like it is again attempting to strengthen.
The storm surge is affecting a large area, just to emphasize this...
From New Orleans NWS:
50 FOOT BREECH OF A PRIVATE LEVEE NEAR SCARSDALE.
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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if you want to monitor police and other operations.
http://tx.scanamerica.us/index.php?county=Galveston
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I cannot believe that people have not evacuated from the coast yet! I'd have been long gone by now!
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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They never saw the Surge pictures from . The levee breaks got all of the coverage.
Estimates are that just over half of Galveston Island's 60,000 resdients have evacuated.
That would leave 30,000 people on the island. A 10% death rate would make the and Death Toll insignificant.
A 10 to 15 feet surge with 18 foot waves on top of the Surge will destroy most of the wooden structures and a large number of commercial structures.
If you are in Texas and can see the Beach from where you are. Either Get Higher or Get Out NOW
Emergency Services will shut down as soon as sustained 30mph winds are in Galveston. The duration of winds greater than 30mph will be at least 12 hours and possibly 18 hours based on current storm track and speed.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is long but it loads faster for those on dialup. Sorry for the length.
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY-
BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT
HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS
WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A
WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
CHAMBERS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.
THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.
HARRIS COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.
PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET
PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET
FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET
PORT O'CONNOR - 3.6 FEET
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET
GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET
SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!
NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.
HIGH TIDE TIMES:
MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.
NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
...WINDS...
THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE
HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.
VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.
...TORNADOES...
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD
PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Galveston Tidal data shows oceans at 10 feet right now. (This is not counting wave action)
Galveston Tidal Data
Ike is still on course to make landfall just south of Galveston, closer to Freeport, but it looks like Galveston will see the worst of the storm surge, unfortunately.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Ike suddenly appears to have a large but rather well-defined eye on radar. Considering the apparent improved organization and the recent upward trend in convective intensity, it may be making a last minute attempt to strengthen. The next recon mission just got in there... HDOBs seem to indicate that the pressure may have dropped (though interpolated pressure readings should always be taken with a grain of salt), but no winds yet that would prompt an upgrade in the current intensity, given past trends.
The latest vortex message just came out, which confirms a 60-mile wide eye. Pressure is down slightly to 955 mb compared to the previous vortex message.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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such a good comment Daniel. So true..the levee failure took over the news and towns like Waveland that got devastated were barely covered except for a few seconds of video and the sign.
The surge with was past Camille's surge I believe.. there was flooding past I 10..
So... not sure when the last time a low lying area in America got a strong storm surge vs other damage.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Well, the earlier well-defined large eyewall is less defined now and it looks like Ike is trying to form a smaller eyewall. The eye is becoming a little better defined on IR imagery, with very deep convection firing in the eastern semicircle.
The outer core of the storm is starting to move onshore now, so conditions should start deteriorating quickly.
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Scott3294
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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radar showing the new inner-eye really tightening up...that is impressive.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=hgx&loop=yes
SP
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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TWC says the winds now 110...only 5 from a major.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Sep 12 2008 11:09 PM)
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weather999
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Oh my goodness, people should have left, what a stupid move not to. I hope those estimates of 1/2 the people still there aren't true.
17 foot seawall is already falling victim to the storm in Galveston (CNN)
110 MPH now.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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If there is video or information on the seawall please post it here.
This channel has been following the waves at the seafall and the Yacht Basin Dry storage being on fire.
Water is still slamming into the seawall and I don't see anything crumbling. Been worried on it so would like more info, thanks.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042 (watch live here..)
There is a lot of flooding in Houston around areas close to bayous. Apartment condo parking lots getting flooded though not inside structures.
This is the story of Ike... water across a tremendous area not just the island of Galveston.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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chitown
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
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Any chance we see rapid intensification right before landfall? It seems to be trying to get itself organized right before landfall.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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looks odd on radar... the eye wall seems to be retreating as it rebuilds as it contracts (if that is what it is doing, but it is changing tremendously)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=hgx&loop=yes
The old area that was open is now filing in so landfall would be delayed officially I suppose.
I don't see any great intensification, perhaps someone else here does but I don't. This storm has been about as steady as it gets.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Scott3294
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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I think we have already gotten confirmation of strengthening from the National Hurricane Center. They commented in their 6pm CDT statement that winds are up to 110 and they could go higher. Clearly the radar is showing that the storm is wrapping in tighter, but fortunately it looks like it is too close to really bomb out.
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weather999
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Quote:
If there is video or information on the seawall please post it here.
This channel has been following the waves at the seafall and the Yacht Basin Dry storage being on fire.
Water is still slamming into the seawall and I don't see anything crumbling. Been worried on it so would like more info, thanks.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042 (watch live here..)
There is a lot of flooding in Houston around areas close to bayous. Apartment condo parking lots getting flooded though not inside structures.
This is the story of Ike... water across a tremendous area not just the island of Galveston.
Sorry, didn't word that right.
Water was just about flowing over the 17 foot seawall.
nothing is crumbling.
Far too late to get out now, hopefully people will get through Ike.
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