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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84961 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:26 PM

Jim Cantore said there was a slight hint of an Eye forming on the satellite views about 2 hours ago.

It can be seen on the Weather Channel's "dreamsicle" enhancement in the lower right corner. Vague hint of a small Eye.

Using the last two VORTEX positions. They line out at 294degrees at 60sm. Extrapolating that heading out... At this time... 11:23pm EDT would send Ike ashore at Port Lavaca. Which I believe is the location Jim Cantore is broadcasting from.
Hypothetical 100sm radius of hurricane winds would extend from Port Lavaca southward to Kingsville and Northward to the western tip of Galveston Island.

Note: the above is purely a hypothetical track based on the last two Recon center positions.
Please consult your local NWS Office for Statements, Watches and Warnings for Official Hurricane Products.~danielw


http://www.srh.noaa.gov


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
heading more west cause [Re: danielw]
      #84963 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:13 AM

who knows, huh?

just goes to show us.....lot to learn.....why hasn't this exploded to a cat 3 or something like that? Because the power of the hurricane has been washed out via a large powerful radii of windfield. The waters just aren't warm enough to get it to a cat 3 cause of the kinetic energy of all that wind...and all that wind has to be incorporated in the final analysis... Had it been an Andrew.....small buzz saw...perhaps a 4. but the storm exploded in surface area, and therefore...needed a correspondingly large area of energy and heat....and it just wasn't there....

Katrina had much higher heat content in the ocean...

my take on it.....

oh, and why going more west? it isn't spinning like a top......it;s more of a blob.....so the coriolis effect isn't as strong.....

need a few mets to straighten out my thinking......


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Uhh Ohh [Re: danielw]
      #84964 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:16 AM

Latest dropsonde from the Max Wind Band. Don't know if it's enough to bring Ike to a Cat 3 or not.
Looks like it might.

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
981mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 95 knots (109 mph)
972mb 100° (from the E) 98 knots (113 mph)
958mb 100° (from the E) 94 knots (108 mph)
949mb 100° (from the E) 105 knots (121 mph)
943mb 100° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph)
929mb 110° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
919mb 110° (from the ESE) 108 knots (124 mph)
901mb 115° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
877mb 120° (from the ESE) 104 knots (120 mph)
867mb 120° (from the ESE) 110 knots (127 mph)
850mb 125° (from the SE) 111 knots (128 mph)
696mb 135° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph)

HDOB Extrapolated pressure in Center 951.7 mb(~ 28.10 inHg)

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:19 AM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Certain death... [Re: danielw]
      #84965 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:29 AM

I don't ever recall hearing such a strongly worded warning from the NHC:

Quote:

Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night....




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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Certain death... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84966 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:35 AM

URNT12 KNHC 120422 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/04:09:00Z
B. 26 deg 17 min N
090 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2697 m
D. 74 kt
E. 048 deg 64 nm
F. 132 deg 098 kt
G. 048 deg 059 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 12 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 03:52:20 Z


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Uhh Ohh [Re: danielw]
      #84967 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:36 AM

Using the surface wind they might bring it up to Cat II, but remember this statement in the morning discussion:

"DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE."

Ike is probably the closest thing to a subtropical hurricane (which doesn't exist in the tropical descriptions) that you'll ever see.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84968 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:40 AM

That has to be the longest, most spine chilling Hurricane Local Statement that I've read.
It is worse than the Katrina Statement issued by Slidell in 2005.

For those in the Coastal Counties of Texas here is the link to the latest Hurricaen Local Statement from the Galveston NWS Office:

Please heed ALL of the warnings and advice!~danielw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

All Hurricane Local Statements for Hurricane IKE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:42 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Certain death... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84969 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:46 AM

Any low lying storm surge potential areas will be suseptical to deadly conditions. The NHC wants to make that clear! Anyways, I still dont think IKE will be more than a Cat 2 or winds of 105-110mph. The reason is what I said above. The Storm is just too big. The NHC wont mention this until after landfall probably but are still going with a Cat 3 just incase.

Now let me give you a example with the storm size and why its not getting stronger. If you would fill up your sink with water. Put your finger in the sink and spin it around "almost" near the edge of the water at a moderate rotation, see how the water spins. Now do the same thing with the water only half that full. You can
see the water turning quicker 'Even Though' your moving it as the same speed before. Its harder for a storm thats bigger in size to adjust a tight inner core of winds. The winds on a bigger storm are expanded more away from the COC. A smaller storm would mean a tighter spin with the same pressure drop.

Anyways Cat 2 landfall near Matagorda Tx in 24-30 hrs.!

Scottsvb


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Certain death... [Re: scottsvb]
      #84970 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM

Scott, it looks like Ike is shedding some of the dry air and recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quad. I think we'll have a Cat 3 in the morning.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: danielw]
      #84971 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM

I've never in my life seen any government agency, much less the NWS, say that if you don't heed the evacuation orders, you face certain death. Ike is one of the most fascinating storms I have ever witnessed.

Just a general question, proportional to the available heat content of the water and obviously the amount of water and free space, how does Ike relate to the largest cyclones ever recorded? I have to imagine this is the largest tropical cyclone on record to ever be in the Gulf of Mexico.

I am in Sarasota on the water now and I've noticed that the water level crested at one point yesterday at about half a foot to 9 inches below the top of our sea wall (I am at New College of Florida in Sarasota). I've honestly have never seen a storm that has produced this large a change in tide level all the way around the gulf coast. (Did Katrina? My power was knocked out so I don't really remember hearing about abnormal tide levels throughout the entire Gulf coast.)

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #84972 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:57 AM

Houston/Galveston PORTS, NOAA/NOS at 11:42 pm CDT September 11, 2008
--------------- TIDES ------------------------------- CURRENTS ----------------
Morgans Point 2.0 ft.,Falling: Morgans Point 0.0 kts.(S), 128°T
Eagle Point 2.7 ft.,Rising : Houston Ship Chan 0.4 kts.(F), 269°T
Pier 21 3.0 ft. :
North Jetty 3.6 ft.,Rising : (F)lood,(S)lack,(E)bb,towards °True
Pleasure Pier 3.8 ft. :-------------------Salinity---S.G.--W.Temp
: Morgans Point 22.1 psu 1.013 85°F
: Eagle Point 19.3 psu 1.011 85°F
: North Jetty 32.6 psu 1.021 85°F
: Pleasure Pier 85°F
--- METEOROLOGICAL ----- Wind Speed/Dir ------------- Air Pressure -- Air Temp
Morgans Point 12 knots from NE , gusts to 15 1010 mb,Rising 83°F
Eagle Point 19 knots from NE , gusts to 23 1009 mb,Steady 84°F
North Jetty 20 knots from NNE, gusts to 23 1008 mb,Steady 78°F
Pleasure Pier 12 knots from NNE, gusts to 16 1007 mb,Steady 84°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information, go to https://corms.nos.noaa.gov/instrument_status.html

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_screens/hgscreen.shtml

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_d...tem&port=hg

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:59 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: danielw]
      #84973 - Fri Sep 12 2008 01:01 AM

General storm reference for tide and wave heights:

Coastal Waters: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IKE.html
Buoys: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84974 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:02 AM

Ike is clearly pulling itself together tonight. Recent SFMR surface estimates and flight-level winds, combined with a partial eyewall redeveloping - improving internal structure, overall, and especially concerning the central core, suggests that Ike may finally be successfully transforming back into more of a classic tropical cyclone, at least for now. All of this considered together could very well indicate that an increase in the advisory wind speed to Cat 3 is on the way by mid-morning.

It would seem that Ike has taken advantage of improving outflow to its west and northwest, while a very long feeder leg that had been conspiring with everything else to keep the cyclone pretty asymmetrical , has finally broken free of its Caribbean connection, and become just another one of the outer bands.

Over the past five hours or so it looks like Ike has been moving a bit on the western side of WNW. The most recent center fix might indicate a resumption of a more northwesterly track, or it could just be a wobble while this reorganization takes place. The 4AM CDT cone probably won't change much, if at all, and the exact point of landfall doesn't really matter as much as which side of the eye ones location is likely to be on (the heavy surge/strongest winds/ "dirty" right front quadrant, or the sometimes drier/less windy left front).


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: cieldumort]
      #84975 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:44 AM

I basically agree with you, but I see the outer ring as the main player. Inside this outer ring there are only tropical storm force winds and no wind maximum associated with the rests of the old, tight inner core.
I wouldn´t see such a rapid intensification process, but the pressure drop in the last two hours is frightening: 957,5 to 950,7 hPa (I use the HDOB-data here!).


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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #84977 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:58 AM

I was interested to compare Ike to Katrina at the same sort of point in their lives:


Katrina on 29th Aug


Ike 12th September

I've had my eye on Ike since he was a TD. I imagine one reason the NHC is stating the warnings so strongly is because he is only Cat 2, and so people may not take him so seriously as a Cat 4/5.

Good luck to everyone who is going to be affected...


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #84982 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:15 AM

Whoops...off to new thread! Mike posted a new news thread while I was writing this.

--

Original post, which I moved there:

In confirmation with SFMR readings, buoy 42361 (a Shell Oil rig) is measuring 99kt winds 50 miles NNE from the last center fix of Ike. Anemometer is at 122m above the surface, so this isn't really true surface winds.

All data: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

Wind Graph: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?s...;time_label=CDT

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 12 2008 08:17 AM)


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