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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Marco Forms in Bay of Campeche, moving Generally West
      #85231 - Mon Oct 06 2008 08:39 AM

7:30PM EDT Update
Tropical Depression 13 has formed into Tropical Storm Marco, with 65mph winds after Recon was sent to it. Thus Marco has a decent shot at becoming a hurricane before landfall.

Hurricane Watches are up from Cabo Rojo south to Veracruz in Mexico.

11AM EDT Update
Beating the odds, Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, and should move at a fairly good clip to the west and west northwest. It has a chance to become a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico.

Original Update
It's October, and things usually start to slow down,but there are usually plenty of chances for development in October. Wilma was an October system back in 2005.

Right now the tropics are quiet, with the exception of an area in the Bay of Campeche, which has a chance before encountering land. Most likely it will not form, or if it does it will be short lived, but it is worth watching.

Another wave in the eastern Atlantic is in a not so favorable area for development, but we'll still watch it over the next few days.

Right now we are in low gear and monitoring the tropics, but immediate concerns are just not there. Hopefully the quiet October will continue.

Marco Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Marco


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Marco (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Marco (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Marco

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Marco
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Marco -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: October in the tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #85232 - Mon Oct 06 2008 10:51 AM

Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. The first advisory has been issued at 11 today:

Quote:

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: October in the tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #85234 - Mon Oct 06 2008 05:06 PM

Well the last-minute recon flight has found that the depression is much stronger than it looked, and is in fact a 65 mph tropical storm - Marco. Marco could very well become a hurricane prior to landfall. However, given the fact that tropical storm force winds extend only 30 miles from the centre, it is likely that if it does reach hurricane intensity these winds will be confined to a very, very small area - probably just north of where the centre crosses the coast. After landfall, the small structure of Marco will likely dissipate very rapidly.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: October in the tropics [Re: Rich B]
      #85235 - Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM

Very helpful that recon was able to fly Marco. It is pretty clear that Marco probably became a depression while still largely over land, and began rapidly intensifying as soon as it had completely pulled out over water. Teeny-tiny windfield, and very easy to miss the max winds by just remote sensing tools, and area buoy and ship reports.

Marco remains in a fairly favorable environment. Given its small size and likely continuation of at least a fairly favorable environment until landfall, continued intensification looks entirely possible. I might guess Marco has a decent chance of pulling an overnight surprise, a la Lorenzo and Humberto (2007).


On the other hand, as a very small tropical cyclone, Marco remains at the whim of any twist or turn of the upper-level winds, and as of this edit, there appears to be some increasing southwesterly shear interrupting things a bit more.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 06 2008 08:24 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: October in the tropics [Re: cieldumort]
      #85236 - Mon Oct 06 2008 09:15 PM

Not sure when the last time they went into something so fast. I remember them changing a pattern and checking out a system but not such a fast mission from the getco..

Small interesting little storm yet it's been rapidly intensifying all day .. as small storms are want to do.

Nothing early this morning and a Hurricane Watch by evening. Makes you believe more in all those stories of small storms in history that many doubt intensity on.

Also, interesting to see such a small cone... a reminder that nothing is business as usual in the tropics in early October.

Maybe shear will keep it a TS and not a Hurricane.. we'll know soon.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: October in the tropics [Re: LoisCane]
      #85238 - Mon Oct 06 2008 11:41 PM

As a tiny aside,

Marco might be the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded.
Here's what Stewart even had to say about it in the 11PM Discussion:
Quote:

MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...

I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.




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