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Tropical Storm Warnings/Watches have expanded. #Dorian a little stronger. Too soon to tell impacts on PR/DR/VI and beyond.
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
CPC: El Nino 'WATCH' Now Goes Into Effect
      #85609 - Thu Jun 11 2009 07:42 PM

Latest indications are for the current "ENSO-Neutral" conditions to TRANSITION to "El Nino" conditions during the June through August time frame.

Latest analysis from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), indicate that SST's across the Equatorial Pacific have continued to increase for the 5th consecutive month.

Also, "... Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures (+2° to +4°C) near thermocline depth. These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño."

Although "statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009", the various dynamical models, on the other hand, indicate otherwise: "Most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June − August 2009."

Further reading and extensive analysis for those interested can be found at ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The links to the above PDFs are a bit technical for the lay person, but well worth the effort to "wrap you mind around" if you have the time and inclination to do so.

Time will tell, in the months ahead, weather the statistical guidelines "ENSO Neutral" or the various dynamical models with their "Transition to El Nino Conditions" theme have a better (more realistic) handle on the situation.

My educated guess is that *IF* we do, in fact, transition to a mild to moderate ENSO event, the EastPac and, especially the Central Pacific will have a noticable uptick in storm activity, while the Atlantic basin might be a little quieter than usual.

And, after last seasons' SIX alphabetically consecutive US landfalling storms (a record), culminating with horrible IKE, the CONUS could *really* use a break this season! All in favor, say "I" !!

Hurricanes churning in the vast pacific basins are but of little consequence, except perhaps to shipping, compared to the destruction and misery inflicted along our US coastline.

Will post more on ENSO developments in the coming weeks and months, as further indicators and analysis become available.

Please feel free to add your thoughts and any questions you may have. Do you think the statistical or dynamical models will 'win out' in the long run?

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Jun 11 2009 08:50 PM)

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