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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Bay of Campeche Invest
      #85637 - Mon Jun 22 2009 03:26 PM

We have a new disturbance that has rapidly formed, and is still improving, in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

This feature deserves to be watched closely. At present, conditions are not especially unfavorable for some further development, and steering currents would suggest a continued motion generally to the northwest.

This is indeed a time of year when tropical cyclones are climatologically favored to form in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall, somewhere, and very often along the United States, so this does not come as a complete surprise.

Real-Time Image (time sensitive)


In the lower left of this image is Tropical Storm/Hurricane Andres, along western Mexico. The feature we are considering, for a likely impact of some kind, one way or another, along southern US and/or eastern Mexico states, is the trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

This area of disturbed weather appears to have two spots of slightly increased cyclonic flow at the surface, with the currently more dominant one located near 21N 96W - and closer to a mid-level circulation fairly obvious in the daylight visible image of present - and a small secondary region of currently milder surface spin, down around 19N 94W.

Given its close proximity to land and relatively close proximity to east Pac Andres, it may have a limited window in which to become a bona fide tropical cyclone within the next few days, provided enough of it remains over water.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bay of Campeche Invest [Re: cieldumort]
      #85638 - Mon Jun 22 2009 04:22 PM

One of the more rapid developing systems that I've seen in the BOC. Appears to have some upper level support from a weak high pressure aloft.

Latest tropical model runs:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Canadian...Moving toward the SE.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09062212/71.html
GFS...Stationary in Southern BOC


edit: NHC has updated this to a Low probability of development at 1:36pm EDT today~danielw

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/221735.shtml

Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 22 2009 04:45 PM)


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