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Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
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MikeCAdministrator
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Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week.
      #85656 - Fri Jun 26 2009 08:10 AM

5:30PM EDT Update 28 Jun 2009
Although there are a few things to watch in the tropics, the set up this week seems to prevent any tropical development.

93L has nothing more going for it than a wave axis at the moment, and looks like it won't do much other than cause some rain (even that won't be all that much). The satellite presentation, surrounding conditions, and an oncoming front arriving around Tuesday should finish whatever is left off.

10:40PM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The Wave known as 93L has not persisted much today, models are no longer predicting development, and neither are we. We'll watch what remains, but it's real chance has come and gone. Satellite indicates northerly shear may be starting to form in the Gulf, which will further diminish any chance of development.



Elsewhere in the tropics, thankfully, there isn't much to watch. Things can change, but until then enjoy the Independence Day week (In the USA)!

7:00AM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009

The wave (93L) in the western Caribbean Sea has decreased in convection overnight, which lowers the chances for development soon, there is still enough organization to keep it worth watching. Most of the model runs have lowered its projected intensity for it in the Gulf, which is good news.



There is still a 50-70% chance this system will not develop, and until a low level circulation has formed, it will not. Signs of it are showing just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan. But in general, the system is not looking all that great. It likely will not develop today,.

If the general system persists until reaching the Gulf (it may just clip or pass to the east of the Yucatan) it has a chance to develop then. But for today, it looks like it won't reach tropical status.

If a circulation center doesn't form by sometime in the Gulf it will just mean rain for Florida.

Those in the Eastern Gulf should continue to monitor this into next week.

6:15PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009

93L is maintaining itself well, and the chance of development remains around 30-50%. More model runs are coming out which indicates the eastern Gulf of Mexcio will be most likely affected by whatever happens around Tuesday or Wednesday. As it is not completely developed, things may change.

If it persists through the evening into tomorrow, and a true low level circulation forms, then it's open to become a named storm.



The movement may depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails,.the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast.

2PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
The wave in the west Caribbean (93L) has organized a bit this morning, more around the center than previously. It looks like it will not develop enough in time to be named before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will likely be on the upswing when it does.

What is more interesting is what happens after it moves near or across the tip of the Yucatan, most likely into the Southern Gulf. If it survives that, Once there, chances improve quite a bit that this system will develop, meaning those along the Gulf Coast will want to watch this one. Some longer range models indicate the eastern Gulf will want to keep watch on it.

More updates to come...

What do you think it will do? Let us know in the 93L Lounge.

Original Update
There is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that is running roughly from the Cayman Islands toward Honduras, moving generally west. Conditions around the system are slightly on the favorable side, so it has a bit of a chance to develop. It only has until overnight tonight to develop, however, as by then it will have reached the Yucatan Peninsula.

It has about a 20-30% shot, but its looking rather well this morning. As of 8AM, it is being tracked as an official Invest, designated 93L. This is worth watching to see if it develops today, as this area is a prime area for Development in late June.

The National Hurricane center in their Outlook is focusing on the wave (surface low), rather than the Mid Level Circulation, at the moment, but both may work their way together. Currently the convection (to the northeast) is away from the center (which is further to the south and west) and may be dispersing. This helps to keep the system from developing at all, which is the most likely outcome. If it survives the Yucatan, it will be worth watching then as it may be near the western or central Gulf of Mexico.



More to come....

93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85657 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

CMC as well as GFS are have picked this system up as well now...GFS is on track with most of the other models taking it over the tip of the Yucatan and into the central GOM. CMC has it take a hard East turn towards the panhandle of Florida. If this develops into anything significant, destination should end up depending on where the high pressure that is forecast to sink into the GOM steers this system.

As a biased Houstonian...we could most definitely use a minor system dropping a lot of rain over here!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85658 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM

This system looks to be flaring rather quickly.
Bear Watch here.
It appears that the trough may be weakening and high pressure aloft is beginning to form.

I saw the early model runs this morning. Tropical systems are Nature's air conditioning. And the whole Gulf South could use a welcome break from the heat.

Problem is tropical systems have a nasty habit of dumping too much rain in one location.
Tropical Storm Allison, most recently.


Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 26 2009 10:06 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: danielw]
      #85659 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM

The center is just of the coast to the northeast of Honduras, the convection is mostly to the north and east away from the center, so this is an indication it's still unorganized right now. The main issue is the wind shear, but the 30% chance is pretty solid at the moment, if it persists the rest of the day that could go up.



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85660 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: danielw]
      #85661 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM

I forgot to add in my other post, the SHIPS intensity model shows to be near Hurricane strength sometime in the Monday to Tuesday range...of course this can vary depending on what the system encounters in the Gulf in the way of dry air and warm water.

As you can see below...there is a new section of convection starting just to the East of the COC.



Edited to reduce image size, click image to see original. - Mike C.


Edited by MikeC (Fri Jun 26 2009 12:09 PM)


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HCW
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85662 - Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM

This system has now been upgraded to a code orange meaning it has a 30% to 50% chance of forming into a Tropical storm once it reaches the GOM. Now we wait and see if we can get a surface low forming but with all the heat energy out there there the GOM easily supports a Cat 3 cane . The GFS ,GFDL,HWRF and the Canadian take the system in the direction of FL while the other models take it in the direction of Texas/LA .

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Edited by HCW (Fri Jun 26 2009 02:13 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: HCW]
      #85664 - Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM

It's a very compelling set up and not such long range models. Complicated by the ULL and also feel that if it were to develop it would be a big system, there is a large envelope that can fill in if it develops a definitive center and has a chance to develop. Heard it said it will shoot the channel by a few people but think the models will turn a bit more to the right over consecutive runs.. however much depends on where it really is when and if it really develops.

Either way, even I was surprised they went orange rather than waiting til the next update.

Looking at the Dvorak and models I can see the reason to pay more attention to this than most people.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Again, if this gets into the Gulf it makes landfall.. and could do so as a hurricane I think... so as much as everyone is busy this weekend doing other things.... this really does as they say bear watching...

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CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85666 - Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

TROPICAL WAVE/POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE AGREEMENT DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MORE EMPHATIC /BOTH WITHIN
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS/ IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TRACK IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MEMBERS...AS USUAL...ARE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
IN LIFTING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS IN
PARTICULAR FORMS THE LOW AND WEAKENS IT JUST AS FAST...AT THE
SURFACE AND 700 HPA...WHEN IT BRINGS THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN TROUGH
INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE GFS IS LIKELY SHOWING ITS QUICK BIAS
WITH GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK-SPAWNED SURFACE LOWS HERE...THUS THE
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER.


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danielwAdministrator
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Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #85667 - Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM

Model guidance on a developing system is usually hard to follow. Guidance is getting better with this system but it still has a 180 degree spread on the target zones.

Afternoon AFD from Key West NWS-edited

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS DRAMATICALLY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE TOO FAR
TO THE EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO GRID SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CENTERS. THE PREFERRED SCENARIO IS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL IS CORRECT...RAIN
CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FORECAST PERIODS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
FORECAST SCENARIO TO COME INTO FRUITION.

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion Brownsville ,Tx-edited

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE AND THE HURRICANE
CENTER IN MIAMI ARE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THIS...THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE MORE NORTH
THEN WEST AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

Looks like a hung jury ... for now.


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cieldumort
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85668 - Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM

So far there hasn't been much to speak of at all at the surface, other than a tropical wave of decent intensity. Pressures have not been falling much to speak of, nor has there been any appreciable increase in the degree of cyclonic flow around any real "center of circulation." At present, there is one weak lower level vortex much closer to Cuba and pushing north, now around 21N 83W, ready to pass over or near the Isle of Youth -

On the other hand, 93L, the whole enchilada, finds itself in what looks like the best environment yet so far this season in the Atlantic basin for development. Upper level winds atop all of 93L are decidedly gentle and anti-cyclonic, moisture throughout the column is abundant, and instability is pretty high, overall, obvious by the persistently strong thunderstorm clusters that keep regenerating.

If and when we actually start to see some real turning at the surface closer to the main area of convection and trof axis (closer to 18N 84W, for example) my sense is that 93L could potentially go from zero to fifty rather quickly. It also looks that 93L, whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone, will probably carry with it an abundance of rainfall, provided it does not run into or inhale and choke on too large a fetch of dry air.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: cieldumort]
      #85669 - Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM

GOM SSTs.. last 48 hour period
42001 Mid GOM Buoy Hi- 85.64F Lo-84.38F
(Jun Max 1975-2001 89.78F 06/29/1994-21z Min 77.72 06/01/1976-15z)

42002 W GOM Buoy Hi-87.80 Lo-84.38
42003 E GOM Buoy Hi-85.28 Lo-84.2
42040 Mobile,Al Buoy Hi-89.42 Lo-87.26

Mobile Buoy reported a high SST of 91.58F 48 hours ago. Just prior to a Thunderstorm complex passing throught the area.

It it June 26th.... right? These almost look like August SSTs.

Breaking News:
Pressure drop being reported at the W Caribbean Buoy
Today
26/2100Z 42056 19.9N -85.1W 24.1air 23.4dew pt 190deg at 8kt G 12kt peak wind from 150deg at 17kt 1009.0mb -3.4(3 hr pressure drop in mb) 28.2SST 1.5meters (sea height) 7sec period 42056

Yesterday
25/2100Z 42056 19.9N -85.1W 28.6air 23.3dew pt 130deg at 10kt G 12kt peak wind at 130deg at 12kt 1012.0mb -0.5(3 hr pressure change in mb) 29.4SST 0.5meter wave ht 5sec period 42056

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 26 2009 08:24 PM)


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LadyStorm
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85674 - Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM

Could it be all of the above normal temps we have been having down here in Florida? I imagine this would have raised the water temps to support tropical disturbances. Correct me if I am wrong. I am still an amature at this.???

--------------------
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thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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cieldumort
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: LadyStorm]
      #85675 - Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM

Quote:


Could it be all of the above normal temps we have been having down here in Florida?




SSTs are really only small fraction of the formula in "cooking" up tropical and subtropical cyclones. Most of the action is really centered above water (as are the storms).

In specific relation to Invest 93L, this feature is not yet even a tropical cyclone, to begin with. It is currently a healthy tropical wave that has crossed the ocean from Africa, and has found itself in a much sweeter spot in the atmosphere than it has been in up until this time. SSTs are also typically far more supportive in this region (the Caribbean and GOM) during this time of year than the rest of the north Atlantic. There is nothing climatologically unusual about this. It is what we would expect for June.

Hope that helps.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: cieldumort]
      #85678 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009
edited~danielw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS FROM 10N-21N
ALONG 84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17.5N. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND IS
IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HONDURAS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...
SPREADING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270000.shtml?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85680 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM

Interestingly, the cloud tops on the system are warming overnight (which means its weakening). This usually goes in cycles though, if the convection stays together it still is about a 30-50% of development, if it does not, it will be delayed, or not at all.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85681 - Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM

It seems along with some of that warming...there may actually be a slight rotation around a center beginning.

It will be easier to see in daylight in the morning with the visible sat, as well as the convection firing up again in the NE quadrant.





Edited by hogrunr (Fri Jun 26 2009 11:28 PM)


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docrod
Weather Watcher


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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85682 - Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM

I'm seeing roughly due north and the rotation on several ir channels tonight. Puffs aside, yes, need to it check the morning.

-eve - Rod


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: docrod]
      #85683 - Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM

Looking at the CIMSS wind maps, it's pretty easy to see the rotation that has begun in the last 9 hours.

T-9hr

T-6hr

T-3hr

Current


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85684 - Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM

The system won't develop today, the best chance is off the east coast of the Yucatan. But even then convection isn't nearly that great today or near enough to the "center" to mean much. It just isn't organized at all.

It's looking more like it may do nothing at all and just be rain for Florida at the moment, although that depends on how much (if at all) it organizes today and before entering the Gulf. Once in the Gulf if a real Low Level Circulation doesn't get started, then it will just be rain for central Florida southward.


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