Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Hurricane Edouard Moving NW in the Central Atlantic Odile in east pacific landfalls in Cabo San Lucas in Baja MX as a Major Hurricane.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 73 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3248 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
28.0N 56.5W
Wind: 110MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85685 - Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM

Agreed, I don't believe it will develop into an actual tropical cyclone today, although the latest satellite shows convection building around the center that seems to be just off the coast of Belize City.

The main area of convection from yesterday that is far off to the East, is similar to what the system did yesterday. The main convection gets spun off to the ENE and then it begins to rebuild around the Low again. This spun off convection will be as you said, a lot of rain for south central Florida today, and we will have to continue to watch what the Low itself does over the next 24 hours.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85687 - Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM

i expect will see something... late tmrw.... the only bug i really see is the ULL in the BOC... its pertty strong and i expect it to affect the outflow/setup of 93L on the western side of the low.. which its kinda doing now... but its moving to the wnw..... guess will see how well the loop current is at the end of June..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 267
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85688 - Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM

The 1645 UTC satellite image really shows an explosion of convenction, but it is difficult to see a circulation center.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #85689 - Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM

Appears to have multiple vortices. Near surface vortice is in the clear area SW of the main convection.
Second vortice is under the southernmost cluster of thunderstorms.
Third and Main vortice, at this time, is just east of Cozumel, per the JSL enhancement. This area should cross into the GOM by sundown.

ULL over the BOC could assist in the vorticity of the system. Combined with the Upper level High that's nearly centered over the system.
See the current shear graphics on the preceding page. Upper Level High over Lower Low almost, always will intensify to some degree.

Also of notice are the two systems over CONUS. Low over the Eastern Seaboard States and a High located over the Midwest. Somewhat of a hammerhead against the northward movement of the system. Also might explain, to some degree, the right or left turn that the models are forecasting.

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 27 2009 04:22 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85690 - Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM

what would really help would be the cancun radar... appears the internet image is down tho

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

i think were the new convection is firing now, is the area i think the center of the low is...

the closet i could get is belize... but cant see anything really

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest_Radar_Image.htm

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85691 - Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM

Here in the latest Visible Satellite, you can see the cloud tops building where the COC is.




The IR image confirms the cloud tops building.



Edited by hogrunr (Sat Jun 27 2009 05:51 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
93L Nearing the GOM [Re: hogrunr]
      #85692 - Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM

Evening roundup...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX
COAST WILL SPLIT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT WAVE. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND LIE UNDER THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BASICALLY
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BEGIN DRIFTING E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH
A LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND LATEST GUIDANCE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SO TONED DOWN THIS
MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE AND TONING DOWN GRAPHICAL PACKAGE IN
PROGRESS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N87W SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 7N89W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 18N. ISOLATE MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER ALL OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES IN PART FROM FORCING BY THE WAVE IN PART FROM NORMAL
AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE TROPICS. NUMEROUS STATION...BUOY...
AND A 1506Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A DISTINCT TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AS OF YET NO SURFACE LOW. THE GFS 700 MB ANALYSES
SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS LEVEL.
THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH A MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

VALID JUN 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 01/0000 UTC

...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED ITS IDEA THAT SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH IF ANY EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEEN IN H700mb VORTICITY FIELD. THE GFS
KEPT A MORE DISCRETE ENTITY ROUNDING THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z SOLutioNS FROM THE NCEP MODELS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR EARLIER SOLNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS IDEA IN BRINGING A DISCRETE VORTicity CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN AND THEN LETTING THE SYStem MEANDER
NORTHWARD. THE UKMET IS CLOSER TO THE NAM IDEA IN NOT BEING AS
WELL DEFINED. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THINK THAT THE NAM IS
TOO WEAK/UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE. WOULD FAVOR AN
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF BOTH POSitioN AND STRENGTH.

lower case letters inserted to replace abbreviations~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 27 2009 08:31 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: danielw]
      #85693 - Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM

I love this site, but unfortunately, life called and pulled me away...so I've been away from posting for a long while. I hope I am back.

I'm going to have to do a little point counterpoint on 93L this evening. This is not one to give up on just yet. Per the pre-satellite eclipse images I am seeing late tonight, I am finally starting to see what I have been waiting for, and it is a sign that this little disturbance may finally be pulling in through very subtle means. But before I get to that discussion, it's important to recap where 93L has been today (appearance wise), and more improtantly...why.

Earlier today, most gave up on 93L, by afternoon, many believed that something was happenning as far as a mid level roation and better organization. What we actually saw at mid day today was a true trough (tropical wave axis) off of the Yucatan and Belize. As the afternoon wore on, a wind and moisture surge swung out of the SE from offshore of the Nicaragua and Hondoras portion of the Carribean. With that, thunderstoms took off. Why? convergence from multiple angles and directions. As such, this moisture surge raced up the wave from SSE to NNW and produced nice convective bursting and some turning. Also, with the changing and veering winds, we may have seen an assembalance of mid-level rotation. I first watched this area to see if these veering winds would create a sustainable mid-level low that could translate to the surface, but this surge continued to run up the wave without stalling. In the the end, there was nothing much to be left in the wake of this surge except for collapsing convection and colliding outflow boundries, some of which led to some pulsing (popcorn) thunderstoms and a slight hint of a weak mid level vorticity.

At this point (2:30AM), depending on the satellite view you visit, this system is a mess and all appears to be over. But using the tools that paint the best picture at night (Shortwave in this instance), we can see that a mid-level votex is assembling a better presentation(without compitition from other mid level vorts and or colliding boundries). This low is east of cancun in the basic area where the activity was most interesting this afternoon. The activity may not look that impressive now, but the low cloud deck is increasing (noted through the darkening grey scale on the loop. Link below.). That activity may be a sign of upcoming organization and increased thunderstorm activity...as such activity has been seen in past developments...so we may come out of the satellite eclipse to find some okay looking thunderstorm activity and/or a system that is more consolidated than it has been in the past. This still may be something to watch.

P.S. Mods are also right, the Gulf may not be as friendly as previously thought during the next 24 hours or so. This may make it even more interesting if this area off of Cancun is an area that takes charge...as this area is slightly protected from those hostile winds at the moment.

Shortwave Loop

Edited by dem05 (Sun Jun 28 2009 03:04 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
area east of florida [Re: MikeC]
      #85694 - Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM

What on earth is going on there thats a big blow up seems to be splitting Very Impressive

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 832
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: dem05]
      #85696 - Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM

this morning the visible shows some persistent vorticity near Cancun, but all convection is over the land area. Some convection is NE of this vorticity over water probably of diffulent origin. It seems to be in another diurnal cycle. At best this vorticity is weak and likely won't support too much convection, especially if the shear develops as predicted. Wishcast: weak vortex that increases precipitation over the Florida peninsula.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: doug]
      #85697 - Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM

All of the Floater satellite shots are indicating a distinct vortice near/ over Cancun at this time.
Latest METARs from the Cozumel and Cancun airports support the satellite observations.

Cozumel:
MMCZ 281145Z 14003KT 7SM SCT015TCU BKN080 OVC200 24/24 A2987 RMK SLP108 57015 900 8/277 DSNT CBS 3,4 QDTE (edit distant thunderstorms SW & NW Quadrants...Cancun area, Cozumel pressure 1010.8mb)
MMCZ 281045Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN080 24/24 A2986 RMK 8/470 DSTN CBS LTG W
(edit-distant thunderstorms and lightning to the west...Cancun Area)

Cancun:
MMUN 281148Z 00000KT 4SM -RA BKN010CB BKN090 24/23 A2988 RMK SLP111 57006 956 60055 8/360 (edit-calm wind,light rain,1000ft ceiling and thunderstorm pressure 1011.1mb)
MMUN 281043Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN015CB OVC090 24/23 A2987 RMK 60095 8/36/

Convective Hot Tower is noted on the current satellite photos in the immediate vicinity of Cancun,MX. Nearly in the center of the vorticity center,
Cancun Radar is out of service so I am using the surface observations in place of the radar.

I'm not going to write this one off yet. I'll wait to see what happens when the vorticity center moves offshore.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

RECOMMENDATION: EXCLUDE THE WEAKER GFS FOR SURFACE LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE
IN ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EMERGE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GIVEN ITS REASONABLE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AT LEAST A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
EXIST...
A SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PLUME
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE PARTIALLY PULLED
INTO THE BROAD LOWER/MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR MORE INFORMATION.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDHMD&max=61

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 28 2009 09:23 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: MikeC]
      #85700 - Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM

Roughly noon Sunday here in the CDT. "93L" is now really centered closer to 23N 90W and tracking nearly due west (this would be just northwest of the tip of the Yucatan, and heading west). The convection others have noted is merely trailing convection behind the wave, as has largely been the case for the past several days, and mostly fanned by some increasingly strong upper-level winds, or fueled by outflow boundaries and/or daytime heating over land, et cetera.

The point being, "93L" now barely stands out, and in the history of features tracked as "Invests," barely cuts it. The sweet spot it found itself in while traveling through the western Caribbean has given way to impinging bursts of northerly to northeasterly shear, and toxic dry air entrainment.

There is a small chance that as the TUTT low which originally aided in 93's chances, by way of its position, pulls further away to the west, the wave (93L) could find itself in the western GOM with maybe some time to fester a bit in a less hostile shear environment (a big if)... before either following the TUTT into Mexico itself -- or eventually being recurved back northeastward - also a big if (There is really not much of any mechanism by which the wave can break from its continued westwardish track, at least over the next day or two).

All in all, unless its environment markedly improves over the next 72 hours, 93L looks set to head into eastern Mx and/or Texas by around mid-week, bringing some enhanced showers, thunderstorms, and some gusty winds.

The models do not have a good handle on where 93L is located, nor the environment it is really in, so this may make for forecasts out beyond 24 hours not particularly reliable today. The GFDL presumes that 93 is still around the northwestern Caribbean or tip of the Yucatan. This model would have a very strong wave or marginal TS make landfall along west-central Florida Wednesday night. HWRF is also too far back, and assumes 93L is still closer to the tip of the Yucatan drifting much more north, than west. The b run FSU MM5 actually looks to have the best feel for what 93L is doing, at present, but appears a little aggressive on 93's ability to ramp up into a tropical storm (this scenario - 93L becoming a strong TS in the Bay of Campeche, is certainly plausible, but at this time that run looks a little hot). There is a tentative recon set up for tomorrow.. which could provide some very helpful information which would then feed into the models in time for Tuesday runs.

2PM: Editing this post to mention that there is a possibility of a low forming over the Yucatan - this would be a result of 93L having crossed it, but not the actual wave I discussed above, itself. Should a new surface low take hold there, it could exit the Yucatan and enter the Bay of Campeche, as early as tomorrow, entering a far less hostile environment for potential development.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jun 28 2009 03:10 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: cieldumort]
      #85704 - Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM

i feel that what i'm seeing in the sats is that the "center" of the invest is about to emerge into the GOM... its on the tip of the NW coast.. NW of Cancun about to enter the SGOM in 4-6 hrs.. and its looks better then i have seen in the last 24 hrs as a surface vorticity.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00906261215.GIF

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85705 - Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM

I think this system has been written off for dead way too soon by too many people. This shows distinctly where the winds are centered at:





Also, this shows that the ULL that is moving West out of the BOC has completely cleared out that portion of the Gulf coast (ie Texas and Mexico) and that the boundary over the northern gulf has already started to position itself to the east of 93L to keep this system, most likely from turning to the East. It seems more models are starting to follow this path as well.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: hogrunr]
      #85706 - Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM

Quote:

This shows distinctly where the winds are centered at




In the interest of accuracy, the image posted above is not an actual Scatterometer, but rather much more of an artistic "composite" based very much on assumptions of where an Invest is located at any given time, put together with the "sketchy" (pardon the pun) wind scats of the past 24 hours, or so.


You can see CIRA's entire public suite here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...ND_200906281800, and you can read about how this image is created here. Note: Not only is the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis product a guestimate based on dated Scat passes, but it is also compiled using wind data from the mid-levels adjusted to the surface. In poorly developed and disorganized features, such as this (extremely poorly organized feature, really) the mid level circulation is often actually well-separated from any surface circulation (if and when there is one). Consequently, extrapolating a mid-level circulation to the surface as a way of determining the location of a given feature is often a bad idea.

An alternate source, much more accurate than artistic renditions, can be found at NRL: This link contains the most recent Scat image available (ERS-2), from a pass at 1624Z. At that time there was absolutely no indication of a closed surface circulation, whatsoever.

Hope that helps!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #85709 - Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM

Currently 7 AM EDT or 12Z on Thursday.

Three minor areas to watch over the long weekend:
Bay of Campeche- Area of cycling organized thunderstorms moving into the BOC area.

Western Caribbean- Upper level Low appears to be attaining some warm core characteristics as a few clouds have appeared in the center of the Low. Grand Cayman is currently reporting clouds at 1800ft.
MWCR 021100Z 13011KT 9999 FEW018 BKN200 27/23 Q1014 NOSIG=

Third area, and possibly an area to watch for the next week is the tropical wave just west of 45W.
Yesterday's Carribean Discussion mentioned that this wave is forecast to change from a positvely tilted wave to a negatively tilted wave. With the height extending up to 400mb... or around 20,000 feet. At some time the wind behind the wave are forecast to increase to35 to 50 knots ( at the 850mb, or 5000ft level). Possibly due to pressure gradient differences. Read the latest Caribbean Discussion here:
Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Positive and Negative tilt definitions here:
Negatively tilted trough definition

edit- Currently none of the 00Z tropical forecast models are indicating any development in the above listed areas.~danielw
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase


Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 02 2009 07:45 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: danielw]
      #85710 - Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM

BOC probably has the best chance and that chance is like 10% or less...lol There is nothing worth noteing for the Atlantic over the next 3-5 days for me!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: 30.29N 85.64W
Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #85711 - Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM

looks to be a nice wave coming off the coast of africa? i think its 5w-33n? i know its a little early for waves to make it all the way to the US, with SST being lower and sheer, but something to watch since there is nothing going on close? :?:

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #85712 - Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM

Quote:

BOC probably has the best chance and that chance is like 10% or less...lol There is nothing worth noteing for the Atlantic over the next 3-5 days for me!




Shortly before Noon today I noticed the "death knell" outflow boundary rolling north through the BOC. Probably the end of that thunderstorm complex for a while.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
El NiƱo Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: danielw]
      #85721 - Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

El Nino is back... looks to be a quiter hurricane season in the Atlantic.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 17451

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center