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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Keep it Slow!
      #85732 - Mon Jul 13 2009 06:30 PM

This July will likely be without much if any tropical activity, El niƱo is likely to keep activity quiet in August. There is not much going on (other than a wave in the Central Atlantic that has much more going against it than for it).

To keep to the side of Hurricanes without the Hype, it's important to remember. Hurricanes and Tropical storms are not the norm. A few to quite many form a year in the Atlantic, depending on the overall conditions around the area. The best way to approach development projections is to look for everything going against development rather than stretching to find things in favor of it. When the reasons for lack of development drop off, then is the time to really look.

Atlantic storm tracking is not a sport, it's an activity and risk associated with living along or near the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf coasts. Nature is something you cannot stop, but in the form of Hurricanes, at least you can be well aware of it. Flhurricane focuses on storm information and interpreting it in order to try to avoid the hype that happens all too often with media and some internet sites. Official data is most important of all, but if you are looking for more, it's important to know the motivations of those giving it. This site is donation ran (which hardly ever covers the costs) mostly as a learning exercise and is not attempting to gather popularity by drumming up every swirl in the Atlantic or by making radical statements without being backed up.

I hope everyone does take a look at all the various links on the internet and judge for yourself where to find information. The biggest problem with it is the focus, you really want to know how a storm affects you and your family/business, etc. It has nothing to do with us here or the site, and that's the approach we take here. We would much rather have no storms at all to track in a year than a major event like Katrina in 2005, or the 4 Florida systems in 2004.

This very focused attitude of the site may not work for everyone, but it's the only way to keep it relevant in the critical days before a storm in trying to keep the noise down. Local media and government is always better for an immediate local area, but longer term planning should take into account first the NHC and other official sources, with supplemental information from sites like these.

2009 has been slow so far, but it could change, and when it does we'll tell you why something may not happen instead of trying to stretch what may to bring in the hype.

Hopefully the quiet July will continue.


97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: MikeC]
      #85733 - Mon Jul 13 2009 11:19 PM

Ill be honest. I want Tropical Storms and Hurricanes... not a Cat 3 or higher coming into my town or anywhere.. but I want to see them develop. I think probably 90% on here also cause they love weather and are interested in Hurricanes. We just dont want to see anything as a strong Cat 2 or worse coming ashore.

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Chumply
Unregistered




Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: scottsvb]
      #85734 - Tue Jul 14 2009 05:41 AM

Well Well Well. What an interesting feature in mid atlantic. Euro, GFS and CMC seem to think it has a chance.

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Chumply
Unregistered




Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: scottsvb]
      #85735 - Tue Jul 14 2009 05:43 AM

Quote:

Ill be honest. I want Tropical Storms and Hurricanes... not a Cat 3 or higher coming into my town or anywhere.. but I want to see them develop. I think probably 90% on here also cause they love weather and are interested in Hurricanes. We just dont want to see anything as a strong Cat 2 or worse coming ashore.




Honestly, I cannot wait for the day technology makes these things terrible storms extinct. One day it wll happen.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85736 - Tue Jul 14 2009 06:46 AM

Quote:

Well Well Well. What an interesting feature in mid atlantic. Euro, GFS and CMC seem to think it has a chance.




This system is approaching a shear area that won't allow it to develop. Too many things going against this one to really give it a chance, this area of the atlantic maybe a few weeks from now into August, but chances are too low to mention at the moment.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: MikeC]
      #85737 - Tue Jul 14 2009 11:08 AM

Hey Mike,

I was looking at the loop of Central Atlantic:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ft.html

I was also looking at the shear map (Mid Level ) for today:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

Right now it looks like the mess is traveling NNW at around 12N 35W

The shear looks like it really gets going at 20N 40W

It sure looks like it it gets any slack it would try to give it a go.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: Beach]
      #85738 - Tue Jul 14 2009 11:48 AM

At best a blob watch which will probably get looked at because nothing else has happened in a while. The system closer to Africa has a slightly better shot, but these are a huge long way from becoming a tropical cyclone and conditions out ahead just aren't there yet.

If you take the GFS for example, just as the storm may get into a position to actually develop it will run into that shear wall.

If it persists beyond a day, then it becomes worth watching. It probably won't since there are still too many things against it right now. One thing it does have, is plenty of moisture (the eastern system anyway)

At least blob watchers have a few things to look at this week.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Wave looking really good today [Re: MikeC]
      #85739 - Tue Jul 14 2009 06:25 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ft-l.jpg

Pretty impressive development... really pulled together a lot today. Let's see if it sustains itself..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85740 - Wed Jul 15 2009 09:47 AM

Quote:

Honestly, I cannot wait for the day technology makes these things terrible storms extinct. One day it wll happen.


Tropical storms are a necessary component to a balanced global climate. Stopping their development will certainly have a negative impact.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 3/2/0


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: LoisCane]
      #85741 - Wed Jul 15 2009 11:57 AM

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ft-l.jpg

Pretty impressive development... really pulled together a lot today. Let's see if it sustains itself..


Looks a bit ragged today as is to be expected with systems coming off the African continent.

Closer to home, there is a surge in the low and mid-level easterlies which can be seen in the Atlantic visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html (freeze the last frame and turn on the wind analysis)

It's also noted on the Saharan Air Layer analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time=

And analyzed as a trop wave:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

It appears to have a fair amount of dust, too.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 3/2/0


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: MichaelA]
      #85744 - Thu Jul 16 2009 10:50 AM

Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85745 - Thu Jul 16 2009 11:41 AM

Quote:

Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325


Non of the models are indicating anything developing there or anywhere else for the next week. No, I don't give credence to that guesscast.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 3/2/0


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: MichaelA]
      #85746 - Thu Jul 16 2009 02:30 PM

I know it's not everyone's favorite model, but the latest Canadian run does show a system on the west coast of FL http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 829
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85747 - Thu Jul 16 2009 03:16 PM

That is a twelve day forecast. Watch to see if the GFS starts to forecast the same thing then we may have something to look for.
Personally I'm grateful for the lack of intensity, but continue to hope for several systems to influence the peninsula to rebuild the reservoirs. Still over 10 inches below normal rainfall this year and about 30 or so in the last couple. Not good!

--------------------
doug


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: doug]
      #85748 - Thu Jul 16 2009 03:54 PM

It says it's 144 hrs, or 6 days....is the starting point later than today..is there some other way to read it?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85751 - Fri Jul 17 2009 09:12 AM

Quote:

It says it's 144 hrs, or 6 days....is the starting point later than today..is there some other way to read it?


Basically, you look for a persistent feature over several model runs. I take anything beyond 72 hours with a grain of salt, though.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 3/2/0


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: MichaelA]
      #85759 - Sat Jul 18 2009 07:32 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Crownweather is talking about the possibility of a Bahamas/SE US storm next week. Anyone give any credence to this http://crownweather.com/?page_id=325


No, I don't give credence to that guesscast.





Take another look...


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 813
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Wave looking really good today [Re: ltpat228]
      #85761 - Sat Jul 18 2009 12:26 PM

Quote:

Take another look...


Looked again. Still see nothing other than maybe a non-tropical low forming on the frontal trough over the northern Gulf, north FL and then moving up the Atlantic coast. Too much vertical shear persisting over the Carib and the Bahamas.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 3/2/0


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johnnylightning
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Saint Petersburg, FL 27.81N 82.63W
Re: Keep it Slow! [Re: MikeC]
      #85770 - Sun Jul 19 2009 09:44 PM

I know that I can trust y'all for the most clear and knowledgeable info available when I am preparing my hurricane contingencies. You speak your minds and provide a great service at a critical time. Your experience is priceless and your advice is without hype.
Thanks!
Johnny Lightning

--------------------
Semper Fi


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