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TD11 Forms in the middle of the Atlantic, but will likely weaken in 4/5 days when it encounters a lot of w/sw shear.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Isaias) , Major: 673 (Michael) Florida - Any: 673 (Michael) Major: 673 (Michael)
15.3N 53.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
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Loc: Elsewhere
Odd season, odd coincidence
      #85846 - Sun Aug 09 2009 10:20 PM

In what is turning out to be a relative quiet Atlantic hurricane season, will undoubtably have some stressful moments at one point. Climatology, along with a couple of models are suggesting activity to ramp up in the far eastern Atlantic pretty soon. Odd enough, the 12Z GFS run today takes our current impressive wave off the Cape Verde Islands, and never really develops it while harmlessly staying well Northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Then, would'nt you know it......, but a quickly developing system originating farther south than the current, develops into what would appear to be the "A" storm.....and guess where this deepening storm is on August 24th? Yep, comin' right through South Florida.

Of course, the very next run at 18Z continues to develop this "other" wave in a few days, but now South Florida is off the hook, and its the N. Gulf Coast in its "cross-hairs". Whether this wave ever materializes, no doubt things will start to get busier out there. Point remains, even in an ever increasing El Nino year and assuming no more than 6-8 named storms form, it will only take just one significant landfall, for this year to be "one of the worst ever", for some random and unfortunate area.

So for now, this South Floridian will keep one eye "model watching", and the other on the calander. Not for Friday the 13th, but for August 24th. After "that" date, I can cast aside bad mojo and simply enjoy the real science of it all.

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