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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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usmc1975
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Reged: Fri
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TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow
      #85955 - Fri Aug 14 2009 06:28 AM

I have been following this forum for a week or so now and hope this question is ok to ask. My family are flying down to to Disney World tomorrow and staying until Sunday, August 23rd. I know to expect the normal afternoon thunder showers while there but, what are the chances that one of these storms or even one not yet formed hitting that area while we are there? Thanks for any insight!

Shane
Charlotte, North Carolina


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: usmc1975]
      #85958 - Fri Aug 14 2009 08:19 AM

There is no way to tell. This far out what is now 90L may be somewhere closeby, but it is not something I would change a Vacation plan over at this time. Just be aware of it and watch to see where it goes.

The Hurricane Center only pushes the 3 day cone, and we're about a week away from that with 90L. Based on the long range models it would be close around the 24th give or take a day. Close is within 1000 miles though.

Enjoy the time here, odds are in your favor that it will be fine.

I live across the street from Universal Studios and other than being hot and the afternoon seabreeze rainfall (that usually goes away in 15 minutes or so) it's not bad.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: usmc1975]
      #85959 - Fri Aug 14 2009 08:20 AM

I wouldn't worry about it - the odds would be very slim. If the former TD2 should regenerate, it would likely pass well to the east and north of Florida and the system off the African coast is a good ten days away from any potential impact along the eastern seaboard (if any at all).
ED


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85961 - Fri Aug 14 2009 09:43 AM

Is is my imagination, or does there seem to be some wrapping going on with TD2
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85962 - Fri Aug 14 2009 10:06 AM

im not sure, but its looking preety good at the moment. im not so sure if the shear will have the same effect on this one as it did with TD 2. this ones a little bigger and a bit more organized. and still this morning, the intensity plots are in agreement as well as the projected path model plots. im sure the shear will help tear it apart but im not so sure yet if it will completely destroy it.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: usmc1975]
      #85963 - Fri Aug 14 2009 10:40 AM

"Real World" likelyhood is that your family will be enjoying a nice hot ( sweltering maybe ) sunny day with Mickey and friends, while in Orlando during their stay. This is based on random chance of a yet developed storm hitting any one given spot, with over 2,000 miles of ocean to traverse. Any storm could move slightly slower or faster for a couple days, which over time could mean different steering mechanisms might be in place to impact where in the world any storm could eventually go.

Now, meteorologically......, if someone gave me a wad of money and told me I had to bet on any one place where a hurricane would be most likely to hit. Then or course all one could do is use those tools in place, and perhaps use history as yet another tool to further figure out "best guess". In general, my best guess would be that on or near that date, a hurricane ( assuming this E. Atlantic wave develops ) will be hitting or near the Bahamas. Even if I or some models were right, Eastern Bahamas vs. Nassau/Freeport?? Moving NNW or westward?? Thats not even taking into consideration that any direct hit to Hispanola or E. Cuba has seriously destroyed or impacted the structure of many past hurricanes ( assuming one makes landfall there ). Even a good educated guess, could spell a weekening Tropical Storm moving south of the Keys, or an intense hurricane impacting Jacksonville or the Panhandle. Either of those scenarios won't keep you from standing in long lines waiting for Magic Mountain.

So, does Florida have a better chance of being hit on that weekend than New York, Costa Rica, or perhaps even Bermuda? Well, at this moment in time.....most models would say yes. However, this far out....., 12 hours from now, those projections could all be out the window.


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usmc1975
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: TD#2 No Longer, 90L May Develop Tomorrow [Re: weathernet]
      #85967 - Fri Aug 14 2009 11:58 AM

Thanks guys! I really appreciate your responses. I must say two weeks ago I came here in general just a for a weather forecast but, have since become quiet interested in your postings and this site in general!


Thanks Again,
Shane
Charlotte, North Carolina


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