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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Danny Lounge
      #86462 - Mon Aug 24 2009 02:41 PM

This is the lounge for 92L and whatever comes of it. Discussing your thoughts and models, things are more open here.

Models for 92L are interesting, the CMC for example takes 92L into Maryland/ Washington DC as a Category 4 storm, others take it out to sea.

Most of the time the early model runs are very wrong, but it's a good idea to have a watch on the system in case.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #86463 - Mon Aug 24 2009 02:58 PM

I think it will come close to Hatteras and then recurve, but a lot depends on how quickly it develops and how far west it gets. Even with recurvature, it's probably going to make landfall somewhere if it gets within 200-300 miles of the coast.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Mon Aug 24 2009 03:34 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86466 - Mon Aug 24 2009 05:03 PM

Today being the 17th anniversary of Andrew making landfall in Homestead I thought it would be appropriate to place these comments in the 92L lounge to remind us how rapidly things can change with these systems this time of year. I am in no way suggesting that synoptics are even remotely similar to what was going on during Andrews trek through the Bahamas only that rapid intensification can happen with the right conditions. Keep in mind Andrew went from a tropical storm to a cat 5 hurricane between 65W and 75W at a similar latitude to where 92L is lurking. Until/if 92L evolves into a closed low obviously it can't intensify into anything. So we need to stay vigilant and watch even these seemingly doomed systems, UKMET had 92L dissipating earlier but, way to early with this one.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #86485 - Tue Aug 25 2009 12:06 PM

High noon on the 25th and it looks as if near 22.5/63.5 something may be popping. Movement to the NW. If so GFS seems to be all over it, and makes a threat to NE in a couple of days.

--------------------
doug


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hwoodw
Unregistered




Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #86487 - Tue Aug 25 2009 12:22 PM

Totally agree with you on that one. Looks to be a small yet tight LLC that has closed off and is shooting off to the NW near 22.5/63.5. I believe it is set for a recon this afternoon. Wouldn't be supprised if we jump right to a TS.

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cbnc
Unregistered




Re: 92L Lounge [Re: hwoodw]
      #86489 - Tue Aug 25 2009 12:53 PM

Do we need to be worried here in Wilmington NC?

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cbnc]
      #86490 - Tue Aug 25 2009 01:31 PM

Quote:

Do we need to be worried here in Wilmington NC?


Right now? Just keep updated on it. Interesting: The WV loop of the Eastern US shows that the trough that steered Bill away from the US coast left a cut-off low moving SW near Louisiana, but there is sufficient SWestery flow up the East coast that may keep 92L off shore as well. Hmmm....maybe keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM, too? A lot of shear there, though.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #86524 - Wed Aug 26 2009 12:02 PM

As of now, I still don't think the models have a good handle on Danny. GFS is more into new england (specifically east end of Long island into Southeast Mass) as of 12Z, but Danny is a odd hybrid, only slightly more tropical than subtropical, and the situation with the Upper Level Low is Complex.

I think models will shift more west later, but I'm not sure how much. Something is off with this system, and I'm still trying to figure out what that is.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #86525 - Wed Aug 26 2009 12:23 PM

i wouldnt count out a westardly track yet either. the next two updates will tell us something. its still moving to the WNW. until we see a visible bump to the north (much like we did with bill, when it was moving NW for the longest time) i wont be convinced. i dont see that yet. not on the ir, not on the microwave, and not on the water vapor. i have to say though, this storm is moving fairly quickly.

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