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Archives 2000s >> 2009 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Area of Interest - Invest 94L
      #86549 - Thu Aug 27 2009 12:42 AM

An active tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands near 11N 25W at 27/00Z shows some signs of slow organization as it moves westward at 12-15 knots. The system exited the west African coast at a lower altitude and wind shear in the area immediately ahead of the system has decreased considerably in the past 24 hours. This system has the potential for additional development over the next few days as it continues its westward movement.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 27 2009 09:58 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86556 - Thu Aug 27 2009 10:05 AM

System in the far eastern Atlantic now designated Invest 94L. Initial coordinates from the NHC are 10.5N 25.6W at 27/12Z. Sustained wind of 25 knots and pressure of 1009MB with movement due west at 15knots. With no wind shear to contend with for quite a few days, this could become a long-track system.
ED


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LSU FAN
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86574 - Thu Aug 27 2009 04:06 PM

Quote:

System in the far eastern Atlantic now designated Invest 94L. Initial coordinates from the NHC are 10.5N 25.6W at 27/12Z. Sustained wind of 25 knots and pressure of 1009MB with movement due west at 15knots. With no wind shear to contend with for quite a few days, this could become a long-track system.
ED





The GFDL and the HRWF is predicting a fish spinner on this invest also! Do you see this happening. Apparently there is a strong trough coming down that will shift 94L north :?: :?:


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docrod
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86578 - Thu Aug 27 2009 06:51 PM

Recommended link for this far out toward the African west coast

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/tropic.php

Click on the 94I hotspot off the map off africa, a popup window will appear ... click on the VIS/SWIR radio button then the AnIGif button.

- take care


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hogrunr
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86579 - Thu Aug 27 2009 08:59 PM

Quote:

Quote:

System in the far eastern Atlantic now designated Invest 94L. Initial coordinates from the NHC are 10.5N 25.6W at 27/12Z. Sustained wind of 25 knots and pressure of 1009MB with movement due west at 15knots. With no wind shear to contend with for quite a few days, this could become a long-track system.
ED





The GFDL and the HRWF is predicting a fish spinner on this invest also! Do you see this happening. Apparently there is a strong trough coming down that will shift 94L north :?: :?:






I would be cautious in following those models yet, they are more accurate on better organized systems. Some of the lower level models have 94L taking a more southern route. 94L is already a little south of the majority of the projected tracks so far. Because of it's initial route of WSW, I would expect this system to have a better chance to take the southern route, below Cuba, but that is just conjecture at this point.


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craigm
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: docrod]
      #86584 - Fri Aug 28 2009 07:02 AM

Quote:

Recommended link for this far out toward the African west coast

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/tropic.php

Click on the 94I hotspot off the map off africa, a popup window will appear ... click on the VIS/SWIR radio button then the AnIGif button.

- take care




Great image animation and resolution. I don't think we are too far away from being able to rotate our view angle so we can look at these systems horizontally with cheap or free software that we all can use.
In the b/w ir animation you can really make out the vertical column of clouds tilting towards the west with 94L it almost has a 3D quality to the image.

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Hurikid
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86585 - Fri Aug 28 2009 08:25 AM

Is it just me or is 94L going a little south of the general model agreement? I can't wait to see the 12Z GFDL and HWRF runs since those were the ones that pushed it into the Atlantic without any interaction with land. Of course, since it is still early, you really cannot expect the models to have a grasp on the system yet.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Hurikid]
      #86586 - Fri Aug 28 2009 09:33 AM

Quote:

Is it just me or is 94L going a little south of the general model agreement? I can't wait to see the 12Z GFDL and HWRF runs since those were the ones that pushed it into the Atlantic without any interaction with land. Of course, since it is still early, you really cannot expect the models to have a grasp on the system yet.




Yes the system is definitely still moving WSW instead of due West...if you look at the link below, you can see where all of the models had this projected at being yesterday, and where it actually is today. NHC is projecting the wave to continue in a mostly west motion over the next 24 hours at least. This will still continue it going south of most of the model projections for now.

Wundermap of 94L


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Hurikid]
      #86587 - Fri Aug 28 2009 10:38 AM

Generally you've made a good observation, however, note that the main ball of convection is displaced to the west of the tropical low center under the influence of strong east to east northeast winds. At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W but other small swirls are also evident in the visible satellite imagery. My guesstimate at 13Z would be 10.5N 37.2W with a general motion just south of due west (260 degrees). With uncertainty on the initialization point, most (if not all) of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have already been too far to the north on their 6 and/or 12 hour forecast points. This 'bouncing around' with the models will settle down as the system becomes better defined and a consistent centerpoint becomes better established. Until this happens though (and it may take a couple of days), any aggresive northward trend by the models will remain suspect and a generally westward motion is more likely. Its also worth noting that the central pressure has increased in the past 24 hours from 1009MB to 1011MB, so development of this system is likely to be slow until the convection aligns better with the center of the low.
Cheers,
ED


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86592 - Fri Aug 28 2009 12:33 PM

it is looking a little more disorganized at the moment. in my opinion its still extremely favorable for development. its just a matter of when. i think with its current state it may take a little longer then the rest of the day to get bumped to a TD. im willing to guess overnight development unless it pulls itself together sometime with the next couple of hours. as far as the model runs. its way to soon to be looking at those. especially for a long range atlantic storm. usually i wait till its a tropical storm and its long well off from the west coast of africa before i start using the model runs for a general concensus. its really a crap shoot at the moment.

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hogrunr
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86598 - Fri Aug 28 2009 04:43 PM

The wave is looking good so far, it is entering it's warmest waters yet, and the lower and upper level convection seem to be circulating the same point. A good number of the models have made the shift southwards with their 12, of course the accuracy of those are still up for debate at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86604 - Sat Aug 29 2009 10:05 AM

Well this has been downgraded by the NHC to <30% chance of development in the next 48 hours, however the forecast discussion still suggests they believe it will develop. Looking at the loop below, there is definitely good low and upper level circulation going on and some new convection is already starting to pop up around the circulation. Wouldn't surprise me if this system developed quickly over the warmer waters and low shear that it is currently in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


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hogrunr
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86607 - Sat Aug 29 2009 02:31 PM

From the 2pm Trop Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N38W SW TO 8N43W WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE/LOW IS WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION
AND IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 41W-49W.


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craigm
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86608 - Sat Aug 29 2009 03:56 PM

Looks like our future Erika is starting to clear her throat. Convection appears to be refiring around and over the estimated center. Lets see if NHC sends her all the way to red at the 5pm. Easterly shear is still evident.

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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86609 - Sat Aug 29 2009 04:32 PM

I agree that it deserves to be with it's organization, but we will probably have to wait at least until 8 pm when the next Trop Outlook update is done. Usually the 5 pm updates are only for existing storms or a new storm formation.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86610 - Sat Aug 29 2009 06:03 PM

looks better than early this morning to me. i see a nice flare up happening near the estimated cos at 10N 45W. its also heading into healthier waters.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86611 - Sat Aug 29 2009 09:05 PM

Interesting. None of the models bring it into the Caribbean - all turning it NW before that. I can't see that happening with the system staying ill-defined in the near term. I wouldn't expect much development until it reaches the Caribbean, or gets much closer.

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2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
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hogrunr
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: MichaelA]
      #86612 - Sat Aug 29 2009 11:21 PM

It is looking a little bit more disorganized again tonight, seems to be waning with the cool of the night and then restrengthening with the day time, not as much loss of convection tonight though as last night.

Michael, I agree with you about it going towards the Caribbean as far south as this is and since it is not well organized yet. One page I like to look at in this situation is the one below, it shows a lot more of the models all on one page. You can see on it that the lower level models ( ie CLIP, BAMM, BAMD, BAMMS, and CLP5) seem to have a much better handle on this system right now, which makes sense.

94L Wundermap


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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86615 - Sun Aug 30 2009 08:04 AM

Quote:

One page I like to look at in this situation is the one below, it shows a lot more of the models all on one page. You can see on it that the lower level models ( ie CLIP, BAMM, BAMD, BAMMS, and CLP5) seem to have a much better handle on this system right now, which makes sense.

94L Wundermap




94L is looking alot more organized this morning as indicated by NHC upgrading to code red. The CLIP and CLIP5 are more for establishing baseline comparison.
"CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model"

Here is a wikipedia link for more info about models:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_prediction_model

More in depth reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 30 2009 08:24 AM)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86619 - Sun Aug 30 2009 09:21 AM

Quote:

Quote:

One page I like to look at in this situation is the one below, it shows a lot more of the models all on one page. You can see on it that the lower level models ( ie CLIP, BAMM, BAMD, BAMMS, and CLP5) seem to have a much better handle on this system right now, which makes sense.

94L Wundermap




94L is looking alot more organized this morning as indicated by NHC upgrading to code red. The CLIP and CLIP5 are more for establishing baseline comparison.
"CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model"

Here is a wikipedia link for more info about models:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_prediction_model

More in depth reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml




Good to know Craig...curious that they have still been the closest to correct so far for this system. I've been looking at the WV imagery this morning, and I find it hard to believe that any of the models are still predicting a NW turn for this system yet. I know the models are inaccurate at this point because of the systems lack of organization, but it seems that there is sufficient high pressure to the north of 94L to keep it on a WSW track for at least another day or so, putting it again well to the S and W of all of the predictions at this point.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html


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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86621 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:06 AM

I pulled this excerpt out of the discussion from NWS San Juan that I posted earlier on the recent news board as it could directly impact the track of 94L
"FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG."
The forward speed of 94 if coincides with the advance of the ridge to the west should keep it moving W to WNW.

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: craigm]
      #86623 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:26 AM

well as of now, conditions are very favorable for a development. most likely by the end of the day or tonight. its hit some warmer waters due to the fact it keeps heading in that westardly motion. it looks preety good right now, the center of the storm looks to be flaring up nicely and holding together quite well. these models confuse me however. im not paying attention to them right now, they are all split down the middle and indecisive. ill wait for the NHC to bump it up. then some of the model runs might be a bit more stable and come into more agreement.

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gatorman
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86625 - Sun Aug 30 2009 11:55 AM

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:

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LSU FAN
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: gatorman]
      #86626 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:19 PM

Quote:

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:




There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Area of Interest SW Caribbean Sea [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86628 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:43 PM

That area east of the Isthmus of Panama will probably cross over into the E Pacific. IF it follows the trrack of the last few systems.

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Hurikid
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86632 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:18 PM

I can now see the circulation clearly on the IR(Rainbow) Loop....seems to have gone back to a more westward heading again..

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hogrunr
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: LSU FAN]
      #86633 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:19 PM

Quote:

Quote:

question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:




There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future.




But we have to be careful watching any of the models at this point, they track the systems possible movement based (more accurately anyway) on the higher level winds being the steering currents. Right now it is only being steered by lower level winds since it is so disorganized. It would not surprise me at all if this made it into the GOM area since it is still moving due west.

One of the last, good, visible satellite images of the day (arrow marks COC):



Edited by hogrunr (Sun Aug 30 2009 05:46 PM)


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: hogrunr]
      #86655 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:54 AM

94l looks really impressive, those warm waters agree with it well. looks organized, theres a cos, nice convection. i would have to say today might be the day it gets bumped to a TD, maybe more.

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weathernet
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86663 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:03 AM

94L certainly looks formidable and sizable, however still have not seen any surface observations indicating falling pressures, especially closest to the CDO. Based on this, I do not believe that NHC will upgrade 94L to a depression any earlier than 5:00pm today. Thereafter, and assuming that the overall convection continues, than perhaps this evening or tomorrow.

After looking at every different satellite resolution, I just can't seem to make out any specific point of higher top ( convective ) turning. Perhaps more interestingly, and in every effort to further hasten my current eye strain...., observation of both the visable and RGB resolutions are starting to make me think that a low level center may have been well seperated over the past couple days, and thus this feature several degrees to the west and slightly south ( which too appears to be convecting a little ), may be competing and/or cutting off inflow to a newly forming LLC under the main CDO. In most small areas of disturbed weather, any well established low level swirl if sheared apart, would simply move on, and eventually "spin out". Perhaps given the larger and more protective envelope of this current system, such a lower level center might still realign with a newly forming low/mid level. This, or that we may be simply dealing with such a broad low level center, that only now that there has been any significant consistancy of convection, that perhaps this system might finally work its way down to the surface.

For the potential rationale described above, and appearant lack of obvious low level inflow and falling pressures, this is why I would tend to think NHC may hold off upgrading 94L to a depression. Given the upper level southerly shear in place, its just hard to guess whether we'll be looking at forming bands in 12 hours, or a total collapse of all convection.

I do believe that if and when we do start seeing falling pressures, and what would appear to be a consolodated surface center ( perhaps late this eve. or tomorrow? ), that we certainly could see a rapid upgrade, perhaps straight to TS. Then, model data will become particularly interesting.


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